Friday, February 29, 2008

Futures and Fools on Matchbook

Here are some futures plays I made on Matchbook. I do not understand who would fill the other side of these baseball plays. If you are the moron who takes Baltimore -30000 to not win the WS, my advice to you is to walk over to your local bank, open up a 6 month CD and get your guaranteed 4% ROI because that is better than what you are getting on these plays.
Since I'm a numbers guy, here is the rundown: risk 3000 to win 10 in 8 months from now. Why tie up funds so long to win so little? What about that <1% chance that Florida actually makes the playoffs?

World Series 2008 Baltimore (to win) +30000
World Series 2008 Florida (to win) +30000
NBA Championship 2008 Winner Houston (to win) +4500
NBA Championship 2008 Winner Toronto (to win) +7500
On a different note, I really like the Houston and Toronto futures plays. I recommend taking a look at these. In the West, the only true favorite is the Lakers and maybe the Spurs, but they are starting to look old. Houston is legit even without Ming.
The East is so bad. So bad. Toronto will probably take the (edit) 4th spot in the East and face Detroit in the Conference semi's or whatever they're called. Will they get to the finals? Probably not, but who knows.
If either of these teams makes a run in the playoffs, hedging them will be very profitable.

Now let's move on to the most overrated and underrated teams:
Why isn't New Orleans getting any respect? 18-1 dogs across the board?
The Phoenix Suns. Now I'm a Suns fan. This team is headed for that #9 spot in the West (maybe that was a little harsh, but time will tell). Probably the most overrated team in the NBA.
The Utah Jazz. Why are they so freaking terrible on the road? No thoughts on them, but I don't get the home/road record discrepancy.
The Minnesota Timberwolves. Crazy underrated because they play in the West. If this was an Eastern Conference team, they'd be a .500 team. Yeah, I said it. Prove me wrong.

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