The Data Mining Project
Thoughts
Steve Nash
Apr 13th
Steve Nash is the best player in basketball. Period. Before you all go crazy about Lebron/Kobe/Durant/etc. let me explain. All of those guys can beat him 1v1 any day of the week, their respective teams will beat the Suns basically 60-80% of the time, but here’s the difference: they have teammates. Steve Nash is basically playing with 4 bench players at all times. Please don’t try to argue that Gortat or Hill is a starter on any other team (except the Bobcats/Wizards).
How the Suns are better than a .500 team is beyond me. That, my friends, is the magic of Steve Nash. He has an adjusted +/- of 12.40 over the last 2 yrs and 10.81 over the last yr (per basketballvalue.com). His unadjusted +/- is +17.0 for this year (per 82games.com)
If you replace him with any other player, this team is less than a .500 team. The only one that comes close is Lebron James (reference: all his years on the Cavs).
I don’t know how Nash keeps it up at age 50 (or whatever he is now) with a bad back, but he is the freaking man. If he doesn’t resign with the Suns next year, they will be basically as bad as the Wizards are this year, maybe worse.
There you have it… my vote for MVP this year: Steve Nash.
Sabermetrics in Las Vegas
Aug 19th
Viva Las Vegas: Sabermetrics in the Wasteland
I’m not sure how any of this qualifies as “sabermetrics”. All of his analysis has nothing to do with any real statistics. I’m guessing he’s in for a tough few months.
Scientific Research
Nov 12th
I don’t think anyone world argue that the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Princeton University are some of the top research institutions in the United States, if not the world. I’m sure they’re involved in important research like cancer, AIDs, and so on, but it sure is great that resources are getting devoted to “the mysteries of the world” like How Cats Drink.
What an epic waste of time and money.
Douchebag of the Week
Nov 3rd
I’ve always liked Kevin Garnett’s basketball game. Always hated the trash that comes out of his mouth.
Kevin Garnett indisputably wins the “douchebag of the week” for his comments at Charlie V. Link.
I particularly like the carefully rephrased trash talk that Garnett came up with. I’m sure in the heat of the moment while his mouth is running it came out as eloquently as he said it did.
Guerrero vs Murphy
Oct 28th
Do Guerrero’s defensive liabilities offset his offensive value? Is it smart to replace Guerrero for Murphy IF (as Ron Washington claims) it isn’t for defensive reasons?
The answer is No and No, but then again Ron Washington makes tons more money than I do.
I also don’t have the slightest clue how SF put up that many runs. Not because Cliff Lee is such a super stud post season pitcher, like everyone on ESPN is saying (sample size people), but because the Giants really aren’t that good with the bat.
MLB Record Update
May 19th
So since I’ve been getting pretty rocked this year in baseball (down about 25+ units right now) I decided to do a little results oriented look at the plays thus far.
Best ROI by Team:
San Diego Padres and Detroit Tigers
Worst ROI by Team:
Oakland Athletics
Best ROI by units per play:
1.6-1.9
Worst ROI by units per play:
0.5-1.0 and 2.6-4.6 (small sample size)
Best ROI by odds offered:
(-123) — (+114)
Worst ROI by odds offered (small sample sizes):
(-195) — (-139) and (+158) — (+296)
So, what does any of this mean? Probably nothing. I guess we’ll see what it looks like at the end of the season.
My biggest concern right now is that I’m not sure that I am making +EV plays, especially with the inability to beat closing lines consistently.
Monday Plays
May 9th
