The Data Mining Project
Rant
Record Update
Jul 19th
WNBA
Saturday Results
0-1-0 (-1.00 units)
Sorry, this one was my bad. I didn’t realize that the WNBA wasn’t a sport and sometimes plays OUTSIDE.
Week Results
1-3-0 (-2.86 units; ROI: -45.40%)
YTD Resuts
9-10-1 (-6.06 units; ROI: -20.97%)
MLB
Saturday Results
1-1-0 (+2.60 units)
Week Results
2-6-0 (-5.57 units; ROI: -39.79%)
No more betting Sundays…
YTD Results
166-186-17 (-12.05 units; ROI: -2.18%)
Here is a fun fact:
My record for the last 5 Sundays that I have made plays:
1-4-0 (-6.07 units)
1-6-0 (-5.77 units)
2-4-0 (-3.07 units)
1-5-0 (-8.13 units)
1-5-0 (-9.30 units)
For a total of -32.34 units
Now if I had removed Sundays from my chosen days to make plays, I would be well into the green. This is probably one of those “fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 5x for 32 units, shame on me.” I can’t seem to break the Sunday curse, so there will be no plays tomorrow. Maybe a stock one…
Here’s something random that made me laugh…
This is straight from Gilbert Arenas’ blog:
Richard Jefferson going to Milwaukee …. HAHAHA! Oh man, now that is funny. When I heard that, I started laughing. Oh man, did I start laughing. You know why? Because every player hates Milwaukee. Nobody wants to live in Milwaukee. I’m sorry, Milwaukee, to come down hard on you, but no one in the NBA wants to play in Milwaukee. From him going from New Jersey, actually from New York (because he lives in New York), from New York to Milwaukee is like going … let’s just say it’s not going to sit well with you. That was a funny one when I heard that one. I know Yi is happy though.
Futures and Fools on Matchbook
Mar 1st
Here are some futures plays I made on Matchbook. I do not understand who would fill the other side of these baseball plays. If you are the moron who takes Baltimore -30000 to not win the WS, my advice to you is to walk over to your local bank, open up a 6 month CD and get your guaranteed 4% ROI because that is better than what you are getting on these plays.
Since I’m a numbers guy, here is the rundown: risk 3000 to win 10 in 8 months from now. Why tie up funds so long to win so little? What about that <1% chance that Florida actually makes the playoffs?
World Series 2008 Baltimore (to win) +30000
World Series 2008 Florida (to win) +30000
NBA Championship 2008 Winner Houston (to win) +4500
NBA Championship 2008 Winner Toronto (to win) +7500
On a different note, I really like the Houston and Toronto futures plays. I recommend taking a look at these. In the West, the only true favorite is the Lakers and maybe the Spurs, but they are starting to look old. Houston is legit even without Ming.
The East is so bad. So bad. Toronto will probably take the (edit) 4th spot in the East and face Detroit in the Conference semi’s or whatever they’re called. Will they get to the finals? Probably not, but who knows.
If either of these teams makes a run in the playoffs, hedging them will be very profitable.
Now let’s move on to the most overrated and underrated teams:
Why isn’t New Orleans getting any respect? 18-1 dogs across the board?
The Phoenix Suns. Now I’m a Suns fan. This team is headed for that #9 spot in the West (maybe that was a little harsh, but time will tell). Probably the most overrated team in the NBA.
The Utah Jazz. Why are they so freaking terrible on the road? No thoughts on them, but I don’t get the home/road record discrepancy.
The Minnesota Timberwolves. Crazy underrated because they play in the West. If this was an Eastern Conference team, they’d be a .500 team. Yeah, I said it. Prove me wrong.
Friday Results and Super/Sportsbook.com
Feb 29th
3-7-0 (-0.46 units)
So despite my previous semi-recommendation (they haven’t screwed me yet) of SuperBook and SportsBook because of their tasty stale lines, it doesn’t really matter if you don’t get paid. I cashed out a portion of my funds there because I didn’t feel safe having the funds in their hands and the check bounced. Wonderful. Let’s see how they handle this.
NBA Trade Thoughts
Feb 6th
There looks like there is a major trade in the works, Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal, pending a physical (source Yahoo! Sports).
For Suns fans, the one thing you can hope for is that Shaq does not pass the physical. In my opinion, Shaq + Suns = .500 season (from now on). Now, Shaq wouldn’t be a horrible addition to the Suns if it did not cost them Marion. What do the Suns think they’re gaining here? The only reasoning behind this trade is that they want to get something for Marion before he ops out of his contract at the end of the season. The Suns are a semi-legitimate championship contender with their current roster and the only thing missing was some interior defense and rebounding. To fill that void you give up your best defender and rebounder and replace him with Shaq? Also, who is Steve Nash going to be throwing lobs to with 22 seconds still on the shot clock? Check the replays, 100% of the time it is Marion.
Well, at least Marion will get what he wants, to be the best player on his team and get some respect, oh wait no, he’s on Dwyane Wade’s team. Maybe now he’ll remember what it feels like to lose. (reference ESPN.com)
I do believe that the Suns run-and-gun type of offense can win a championship, but it will require 2 parts:
1. Steve Nash
2. Shawn Marion
For you stat junkies like me:
There is only 1 combo in the league that is more efficient than Garnett/Pierce (Net 48 min +/- of 15.1)
Nash /Marion (Net 48 min +/- of +13.2)
That’s only 1 stat you say?
Garnett/Pierce/R.Allen (Net 48 min +/- of 15)
Nash/Marion/Stoudemire (Net 48 min +/- of 14)
Seriously Steve Kerr? This trade just pisses me off. Why didn’t they trade Marcus banks and Sean Marks for Gasol?
Monday Results
Feb 4th
0-6-2 (-12.76 units)
Well. Nothing I can say about today. 2 pushes, 1 .5 point loss, and 0 Phoenix Suns players can play defense.
This is going to be tough to recover from. I may go back to rethinking my system, but it has had so much success this year I’m not sure what to think.
This probably has something to do with increasing my unit size 2-3 weeks ago.
Wednesday Results
Jan 2nd
1-2-0 (-0.20 units)
Orlando sucks. How do you get blown out (18-30) in the 4th quarter at home by New Jersey?
Charotte sucks. How do you get blown out (18-31) in the 4th quarter at home by Chicago?
Thank you Joe Johnson for your 2 lucky 3′s at the end of the game.
As of now there aren’t really any lines up so I’ll just post plays in the morning.
Tuesday Results and Wednesday MLB
Sep 4th
2-4-0 (-5.10 units)
I cannot believe today. Got absolutely worked by the bullpens. I can’t believe how horrible the bullpens were today. Can’t believe it…
Wednesday MLB
Oakland Athletics +148 for Game [5Dimes]
Atlanta Braves -153 for Game [5Dimes]
Added Plays
Boston Red Sox -139 for Game [5Dimes]
Florida Marlins +100 for 1st 5 Innings [5Dimes]
Pittsburgh Pirates +147 for Game [BetJM]
Oakland Athletics +148 for 1st 5 Innings (1.5) [SuperBook]
