The Data Mining Project
Handicapping
Sabermetrics in Las Vegas
Aug 19th
Viva Las Vegas: Sabermetrics in the Wasteland
I’m not sure how any of this qualifies as “sabermetrics”. All of his analysis has nothing to do with any real statistics. I’m guessing he’s in for a tough few months.
Tuesday Plays
Apr 12th
1st 5 Innings Oakland Athletics 114 (1.2) [BetJM]
1st 5 Innings New York Mets -110 (1.5) [BetJM]
1st 5 Innings Houston Astros -117 (1.7) [5Dimes]
1st 5 Innings Seattle Mariners 103 (1.7) [BetJM]
I cut my fractional kelly amount down. It appears that I was generating great lines still, just over betting (mostly the lines between -110 and +110). We’ll see if that makes a difference.
Record Update
Jan 9th
From my non-public picks. I started out the year getting absolutely served, but have been on fire for about a month now.
| Wager Type | # Wagers | Avg Wager (units) | Volume % | Net W/L (units) | ROI % |
| 1Q | 69 | 1.97 | 68.67% | 3.22 | 2.36% |
| 3Q | 18 | 1.98 | 17.97% | 3.95 | 11.08% |
| 1st 6 Min | 9 | 2.94 | 13.35% | 13.77 | 52.01% |
| Grand Total | 96 | 2.07 | 100.00% | 20.94 | 10.56% |
How Travel Affects NBA Teams
Sep 12th
An interesting article, with mostly unanswered questions, about how travel may affect NBA teams: Sabermetric Research
NFL and Play Updates
Sep 9th
AT&T fails so I still do not have internet. I should have it by Tuesday night.
For NFL I will be recommending teasers. I will post hopefully on Thursdays and Saturdays for those. I’ll have sportbook recommendations soon.
MLB Record Update
May 19th
So since I’ve been getting pretty rocked this year in baseball (down about 25+ units right now) I decided to do a little results oriented look at the plays thus far.
Best ROI by Team:
San Diego Padres and Detroit Tigers
Worst ROI by Team:
Oakland Athletics
Best ROI by units per play:
1.6-1.9
Worst ROI by units per play:
0.5-1.0 and 2.6-4.6 (small sample size)
Best ROI by odds offered:
(-123) — (+114)
Worst ROI by odds offered (small sample sizes):
(-195) — (-139) and (+158) — (+296)
So, what does any of this mean? Probably nothing. I guess we’ll see what it looks like at the end of the season.
My biggest concern right now is that I’m not sure that I am making +EV plays, especially with the inability to beat closing lines consistently.
NBA Home Court Advantage
Apr 21st
I’ve been watching this for years, how much is Home Court Advantage (HCA) worth in the NBA playoffs? Not so much for the series, but primarily when a team is down 0-2 and the series goes home.
Example 1:
LAL G1 -7.5 (Covered)
LAL G2 -6 (Did not cover)
LAL G3 +3.5
Is a team going home down 0-2 is really 9.5 points better than when they were down 0-1?
Example 2:
PHX G1 -8.5 (Did not cover)
PHX G2 -8.5 (Covered)
PHX G3 PK
So this game for POR should have a little bit less urgency than OKC, so they’re only 8.5 points better at home.
I know this basic look at the stats doesn’t take into account countless other factors besides HCA, but it’s something that just doesn’t make sense to me. (I was too lazy to even check the 2009 playoffs and see what the true HCA was, but that’s another story) I’ll probably get absolutely worked because I’m going to make a few plays here tomorrow, but whatever. Let’s see how this pans out.
NBA Playoff Predictions
Apr 16th
Right now I’m not going to get exact with the numbers and everything, but here is who I have projected to win between each matchup. Since it’s the first round and there really isn’t too much variance in NBA series matchups (unlike MLB) there aren’t too many surprises.
CLE/CHI – CLE
ORL/CHA – ORL
ATL/MIL – ATL (MIL with a full team, but that’s not happening)
BOS/MIA – MIA
LAL/OKC – LAL (but OKC may keep this closer than most will expect)
DAL/SAS – DAL
DEN/UTA – UTA
PHX/POR – PHX
The western confernece is tough, but the best team is still CLE. The LAL will have a hard time repeating mostly just because of the road they have to go through versus CLE/ORL, but this is not new or even insightful information. I don’t even know why I wrote that sentence. Maybe because it’s 6am and I’ve been up since 2pm.
For handicapping/sports betting purposes, the only bets I would consider right now are UTA, MIA, but that will of course depend on the odds.
MLB Player Props
Mar 28th
All from [SuperBook]/[Sportsbook.com]. They tend to have the softest props. I made these a while ago, but didn’t post because it took me a while to get all the money down I wanted on these guys. However, all of the odds are the same still, except the Zimmerman prop which has moved to -125.
[SuperBook]/[Sportsbook.com] are the best for unders because they only require that a player play 1 game, unlike [bodog] where there is a game requirement.
Enjoy.
Adam Lind – Total Regular Season Home Runs
Regular Season HRs
Must Play 1 Game 04/04/10(13:10 ET)
Under 27.5 (-115)
Mark Teixeira – Total Regular Season Home Runs
Regular Season HRs
Must Play 1 Game 04/04/10(13:10 ET)
Under 35.5 (-115)
Adam Dunn – Total Regular Season Home Runs
Regular Season HRs
Must Play 1 Game 04/04/10(13:10 ET)
Under 35.5 (-115)
Grady Sizemore – Total Regular Season Home Runs
Regular Season HRs
Must Play 1 Game 04/04/10(13:10 ET)
Over 25.5 (-115)
Ryan Zimmerman – Total Regular Season Home Runs
Regular Season HRs
Must Play 1 Game 04/04/10(13:10 ET)
Under 29.5 (-115)
Albert Pujols – Total Regular Season Home Runs
Regular Season HRs
Must Play 1 Game 04/04/10(13:10 ET)
Under 39.5 (-115)
Kendry Morales – Total Regular Season Home Runs
Regular Season HRs
Must Play 1 Game 04/04/10(13:10 ET)
Under 24.5 (-105)
Ichiro Suzuki – Total Regular Season Hits
Regular Season Hits
Must Play 1 Game 04/04/10(13:10 ET)
Under 207.5 (-115)
