Friday, April 30, 2010

How I Plan on Getting Rich

Friday Plays

NYM +135 (2.1) [5Dimes]
WAS +202 (1.5) [Matchbook]
HOU +189 (1) [Matchbook]
CIN +180 1st 5 Innings (1.2) [BetJM]
SD -129 (1.9) [Matchbook]
PIT +236 (1.3) [Matchbook]
CHW +230 (2.3) [5Dimes]
BAL +144 1st 5 Innings (1.3) [BetJM]
DET +111 (1.6) [Matchbook]
KC +220 1st 5 Innings (1.8) [BetJM]

There's also a few cent arb at [SIA]/[Matchbook] on COL/SF.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Thursday Plays

SD -132 (2.1) [BetJM]
OAK +123 (3) [BetJM]

Added Plays
CHW +124 (1.3) [5Dimes]
BAL +152 1st 5 Innings (2) [BetJM]
KC +212 1st 5 Innings (1.4) [BetJM]

Someone knows something that I don't about OAK/TOR, I'm getting absolutely destroyed by line movement.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Record Update

Announcement:
For the first time in the 2010 MLB season, from a low of -27.18 units:
65-85-6 (+4.16 units; ROI: 1.828%)

Wednesday Plays

SD -104 (2.4) [BetJM]
WAS +182 (1.7) [BetJM]
COL -150 (1.1) [Bookmaker]
CLE +150 (1.4) [BetJM]

Added Plays
PIT +140 1st 5 Innings (1.2) [5Dimes]
OAK +150 Game (.5) [5Dimes]
OAK +150 1st 5 Innings (.5) [BetJM]
BAL +200 1st 5 Innings (1.4) [Bookmaker]
SF -139 Game (1.2) [Matchbook]
NYM +102 (3) [Matchbook]

Monday, April 26, 2010

Tuesday Plays

SD +124 (1.9) [Matchbook]
WAS +156 (1.8) [Matchbook]
TOR +107 (1.2) [5Dimes]
OAK +161 (1.8) [5Dimes]
CLE +153 (2.6) [5Dimes]

Added Plays
ARI +186 1st 5 Innings (1.2) [BetJM]
NYM GM2 -106 Game (2.1) [Matchbook]
NYM GM1 -132 Game (2.1) [Matchbook]
PIT +215 1st 5 Innings (1.8) [BetJM]

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Monday Plays

NYM +128 (3.2) [Matchbook]
SD +146 (2.3) [5Dimes]
WAS +146 (1.9) [5Dimes]
SF +149 (1.3) [5Dimes]
DET +135 (2) [5Dimes]
CLE +168 (1.9) [5Dimes]

Added Play
ARI -105 1st 5 Innings (1.5) [BetJM]

Saturday, April 24, 2010

Record Update

Week Results
30-27-2 (+18.25 units; ROI: 22.01%)
And that's what we call running hot.

YTD Results
55-74-5 (-3.28 units; ROI: -1.75%)
Almost in the black.

Sunday Plays

SD -111 (1.9) [5Dimes]
WAS +139 (2) [5Dimes]
MIL -110 (1.2) [Matchbook]
PHI -107 (1.4) [5Dimes]
TOR +210 (1.9) [5Dimes]
MIN -129 (1.3) [5Dimes]

Friday, April 23, 2010

Saturday Plays

WAS +140 Game (1.3) [Bookmaker]
SD +114 Game (1.7) [BetJM]
PHI -117 Game (1.4) [BetJM]

Added Plays
NYM +135 Game (1.1) [Matchbook]
CHC -120 1st 5 Innings (1) [5Dimes]
KC +105 1st 5 Innings (1.5) [Bookmaker]
I enjoyed watching the KC line go from +115 to +105 as I was trying to hit it at multiple books and ended up getting none down on it.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Friday Plays

SD +101 (1.4) [BetJM]
COL +110 (1.1) [Bookmaker]
PHI -170 (1.4) [BetJM]
DET +110 (2) [BetJM]
Pitching changes for CIN and TEX.

Added Plays
CHN -120 1st 5 Innings (2.1) [SIA]
TOR +216 Game (1) [Matchbook]
KC +125 1st 5 Innings (1.7) [Bookmaker]
SEA +143 Game (.6) [Matchbook]
SEA +139 1st 5 Innings (.6) [BetJM]
LAA +120 1st 5 Innings (1.5) [SIA]
SD +110 Game (1.6) [Matchbook]

NBA
BOS +4 +109 [Matchbook]
DAL +3.5 -104 [Matchbook]
DEN +2.5 +104 [Matchbook]
Mostly just bc i'm an action whore.

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

NBA Home Court Advantage

I've been watching this for years, how much is Home Court Advantage (HCA) worth in the NBA playoffs? Not so much for the series, but primarily when a team is down 0-2 and the series goes home.

Example 1:
LAL G1 -7.5 (Covered)
LAL G2 -6 (Did not cover)
LAL G3 +3.5

Is a team going home down 0-2 is really 9.5 points better than when they were down 0-1?

Example 2:
PHX G1 -8.5 (Did not cover)
PHX G2 -8.5 (Covered)
PHX G3 PK

So this game for POR should have a little bit less urgency than OKC, so they're only 8.5 points better at home.

I know this basic look at the stats doesn't take into account countless other factors besides HCA, but it's something that just doesn't make sense to me. (I was too lazy to even check the 2009 playoffs and see what the true HCA was, but that's another story) I'll probably get absolutely worked because I'm going to make a few plays here tomorrow, but whatever. Let's see how this pans out.

Thursday Plays

Detroit Tigers -112 (1.4) [5Dimes]
Oakland Athletics +165 (1.8) [5Dimes]
Cleveland Indians +190 (1.2) [5Dimes]
Houston Astros +115 (1.5) [5Dimes]
New York Mets -157 (1.2) [5Dimes]
Cincinnati Reds +105 (1.4) [5Dimes]
Pittsburgh Pirates +143 (1.7) [5Dimes]

All [5Dimes] reduced juice. Hopefully you can get enough down there or you'll have to hit up other books at worse odds.

Added Plays
WAS +165 1st 5 Innings (1.5) [BetJM]
CHW +101 Game (1.2) [Matchbook]

NBA
Los Angeles (L) 3.5 +101 (1) [Matchbook]
Phoenix 1.0 -101 (1) [Matchbook]
Cleveland -4.0 -104 (1) [Matchbook]

Wednesday Plays

San Diego -117 (1.9) [Matchbook]
New York (N) +101 (3.1) [Matchbook]
Houston +141 (.6) [Matchbook]
St. Louis -133 (1.7) [Matchbook]
Chicago (A) -108 (1.3) [Matchbook]
Detroit +164 (1.3) [Matchbook]
CIN +130 (2.2) [SIA]
ATL +135 (1) [SIA]
OAK +140 (.7) [SIA]
Oakland Athletics +139 for 1st 5 Innings (.7) [BetJM]
Cleveland Indians +167 for 1st 5 Innings (1.7) [BetJM]
Houston Astros +140 for 1st 5 Innings (.5) [BetJM]

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Tuesday Plays

NYM Game -103 (2.4) [Matchbook]
ATL Game -154 (0.8) [Matchbook]
ATL 1st 5 Innings -162 (0.8) [BetJM]
STL Game 140 (1) [Matchbook]
SD Game 110 (1.9) [SIA]
CLE 1st 5 Innings 138 (1.6) [BetJM]
CHW Game 105 (1.9) [SIA]
OAK Game 149 (1.3) [Matchbook]

Added Play
WAS +138 1st 5 Innings (1.1) [BetJM]

Monday, April 19, 2010

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Monday Plays

NYM +115 Game (2.6) [Matchbook]
SD +121 Game (1.6) [5Dimes]
TOR -110 Game (1.4) [Bookmaker]
DET +162 Game (1.1) [Matchbook]

Added Plays
STL -122 Game (2.9) [Matchbook]
WAS +137 1st 5 Innings (1.6) [BetJM]

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Record Update

MLB
Week Results
17-28-3 (-14.91 units; ROI: -22.9%)
That qualifies as a pretty bad week.

YTD Results
25-47-3 (-21.53 units; ROI: -20.6%)
And that qualifies as a pretty bad month.

Sunday Plays

WAS +105 Game (1.4) [Bookmaker]
HOU +155 Game (1.2) [BetJM]
SD -116 Game (1.6) [BetJM]
NYM +225 Game (1.4) [Bookmaker]
TEX +152 Game (1.6) [BetJM]

Added Plays
SD +100 Game (1) [Matchbook]
HOU +171 1st 5 Innings (.5) [BetJM]
TEX +153 1st 5 Innings (.5) [5Dimes]
KC +180 1st 5 Innings (1.6) [BetJM]

Friday, April 16, 2010

Saturday Plays

WAS +145 Game (1.7) [Bookmaker]
SD -130 Game (1.5) [BetJM]

Added Plays
NBA
Miami Heat (Series) +165 (2) [5Dimes]
Utah +180 (Series) +180 (2) [Matchbook]

MLB
KC +170 5 Innings (1.8) [SIA]
FLA +102 5 Innings (1.2) [5Dimes]
TOR +106 Game (2) [Matchbook]
ATL +115 (1.1) [SIA]
SEA +128 Game (1.5) [Matchbook]

If you haven't yet figured it out, [SIA] is a great place to make bets.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

NBA Playoff Predictions

Right now I'm not going to get exact with the numbers and everything, but here is who I have projected to win between each matchup. Since it's the first round and there really isn't too much variance in NBA series matchups (unlike MLB) there aren't too many surprises.

CLE/CHI - CLE
ORL/CHA - ORL
ATL/MIL - ATL (MIL with a full team, but that's not happening)
BOS/MIA - MIA

LAL/OKC - LAL (but OKC may keep this closer than most will expect)
DAL/SAS - DAL
DEN/UTA - UTA
PHX/POR - PHX

The western confernece is tough, but the best team is still CLE. The LAL will have a hard time repeating mostly just because of the road they have to go through versus CLE/ORL, but this is not new or even insightful information. I don't even know why I wrote that sentence. Maybe because it's 6am and I've been up since 2pm.

For handicapping/sports betting purposes, the only bets I would consider right now are UTA, MIA, but that will of course depend on the odds.

I don't know

I don't get it. I haven't really changed anything the from the past years doing this but we are getting absolutely rocked.

My YTD MLB record is:
17-41-2 (-24.09 units; ROI: -28.3%)

Ouch. Another big blown save today by ARI and another one yesterday hurt us a lot and WAS winning in the full game (finally), but pushing the 5in line was lame.

I haven't had a chance to see what the "expected" ROI vs "actual" ROI, but there's no way the expected is -28.3%.

Recently (last 2-3 days), I've also had a harder time beating the closing lines, mostly because I'm hitting dime and 20 cent lines at opening and comparing them to matchbook, so I may start making plays the day of and comparing to 5 inning lines and just taking which one I like better, or reverting back to 100% 5 inning lines.

I'll continue to monitor, but I am tired of losing so much money on [Matchbook], [BetJM] and everywhere else, especially with the credit card limits of 300-500 per deposit.

Anyone have any thoughts? Do you prefer 5 inning lines or full game lines? Hitting early lines at [Bookmaker]/[BetJM] or same day at [Matchbook]?

Friday Plays

New York Mets +224 for Game (1.6) [BetJM]
Toronto Blue Jays -105 for Game (2) [BetJM]

Added Plays
WAS +141 Game (.6) [5Dimes]
WAS +140 1st 5 Innings (.6) [BetJM]
SD +100 Game (1.1) [SIA]
TEX +190 (1.1) [5Dimes]
CLE +142 Game (.8) [BetJM]
CLE +139 1st 5 Innings (.8) [BetJM]

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Thursday Plays

New York Mets +182 for Game (1.1) [BetJM]
Arizona Diamondbacks -101 for Game (2.1) [BetJM]
San Diego +116 for Game (2.4) [Bookmaker]

Added Plays
HOU +200 1st 5 Innings (1.5) [BetJM]
WAS +210 1st 5 Innings (1.8) [BetJM]
Arizona +121 Game (1) [Matchbook]
Chicago (A) +113 Game (1.2) [Matchbook]
New York (A) -155 Game (1.1) [Matchbook]

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

In the media

Since I can't seem to beat a closing line to save my life...

Kate Gosselin:
"I would rather be at home with [my kids]," she said on the Today Show Tuesday. "But I have to work. I have to provide for them. It's a struggle every single mom goes through."

What a load of horse crap. I bet you are really struggling to get by.

Wednesday Plays

Milwaukee Brewers +125 for Game (1.1) [BetJM]
Washington Nationals +205 for Game (1.9) [BetJM]
Houston Astros +185 for Game (1) [BetJM]
New York Mets +183 for Game (2.1) [BetJM]
Cleveland Indians -103 for Game (1.5) [BetJM]
MIN TWINS +118 Game (1.4) [Bookmaker]

Added Play
San Diego +127 (1) [Matchbook]

Monday, April 12, 2010

Tuesday Plays

Arizona Diamondbacks +159 for Game (1.1) [BetJM]
New York Mets +132 for Game (1.3) [BetJM]

Added Play
Los Angeles (A) +186 (1.3) [Matchbook]
Kansas City Royals +110 for 1st 5 Innings (1.2) [BetJM]

Seattle Mariners +140 for 1st 5 Innings (1.7) [BetJM]

Friday, April 9, 2010

Record Update

MLB
7-16-0 (-5.32 units; ROI: -16.6%)

FML. Killed most of the closing lines. Variance I guess. Hopefully next week will be better.

Sunday Plays

I'm unsure about Sunday plays. I may have limited internet this weekend. I will be back on Sunday afternoon for Monday plays for sure.

Sunday Plays
San Diego Padres +215 for Game (1.5) [BetJM]
Pittsburgh Pirates +190 for Game (1.2) [BetJM]
Cleveland Indians +191 for Game (1.8) [BetJM]
Toronto Blue Jays +107 for Game (1.2) [BetJM]
Oakland Athletics +120 for Game (1.2) [BetJM]
SEA +145 Game (1.4) [Bookmaker]

Saturday Plays

San Diego Padres +146 for Game (2.4) [BetJM]
Cleveland Indians +157 for Game (2.7) [BetJM]
OAK +135 (1.1) [Bookmaker]

Added Play
OAK +161 (1) [SuperBook]/[Sportsbook.com]

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Friday Plays

SD +158 (1) [Bookmaker]
SF +121 (1.3) [BetJM]
WAS +138 (1.5) [Bookmaker]
CLE +135 (2.2) [BetJM]

More Natinals love.

Added Plays
PIT +129 (1.4) [5Dimes]

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Thursday Plays

PIT PIRATES +140 (1) [Bookmaker]
WAS NATIONALS +140 (2.2) [Bookmaker]
CLE INDIANS +130 (1.8) [Bookmaker]
MIN TWINS +125 (1.9) [Bookmaker]
NY Mets -110 (1.1) [BetJM]

Added Play
Seattle Mariners +159 (1.1) [5Dimes]

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Tuesday Results

After a horrendous opening day, going 0-5 with 2 blown saves, finally won our first 2 games.

Only + ROI from here kids.

Wednesday Plays

Houston Astros +124 for Game (1.4) [BetJM]
Washington Nationals +150 for Game (1.1) [BetJM]

Added Play
Houston +142 (.5) [Matchbook]
Detroit -122 (1) [Matchbook]
Pittsburgh +157 (1.2) [Matchbook]
New York (N) +124 (1.2) [Matchbook]

Sunday, April 4, 2010

Monday Plays

MLB
WAS +184 (1.3) [Matchbook]
CLE +153 (1.8) [Matchbook]
TOR +130 (1.8) [Matchbook]
KC -110 (1) [5Dimes]

I wasn't ready with my bullpen projections (I'm still not really happy with them...) so these were made later than I wanted.

Good luck to us this season!

Added Play
OAK +138 (1.7) [Bookmaker]/[BetJM]

Friday, April 2, 2010

Friday Plays

Utah 4.5 +102 (2.3) [Matchbook]

Phoenix -8.5 +102 (1.8) [Matchbook]

Orlando 3.5 -107 (1.3) [Matchbook]

New York 4.0 -101 (1.2) [Matchbook]