Tuesday, May 18, 2010

MLB Record Update

So since I've been getting pretty rocked this year in baseball (down about 25+ units right now) I decided to do a little results oriented look at the plays thus far.

Best ROI by Team:
San Diego Padres and Detroit Tigers

Worst ROI by Team:
Oakland Athletics

Best ROI by units per play:
1.6-1.9

Worst ROI by units per play:
0.5-1.0 and 2.6-4.6 (small sample size)

Best ROI by odds offered:
(-123) -- (+114)

Worst ROI by odds offered (small sample sizes):
(-195) -- (-139) and (+158) -- (+296)

So, what does any of this mean? Probably nothing. I guess we'll see what it looks like at the end of the season.
My biggest concern right now is that I'm not sure that I am making +EV plays, especially with the inability to beat closing lines consistently.

1 comment:

stekek said...

I read your blog and some other sabermetric guys because I like to compare. For my own betting though I use Michael Murray's numbers. One thing I've noticed is that quite often your larger plays are on games that he doesn't see an edge on and many times at numbers worse than he caps the game at. The 2.3 units on SF today is a good example. He has Az -155 which doesn't make SF a play until they reach +180. So not only have you been smoked by line movement on your +140 you may very well have the wrong side as far as value.

Here's a link to Murray's 2010 season thread. Some comparisons may raise some questions that help you tweak what's needed. And he's always been pretty open to discussion although I don't know how technical he'll get on an open board.

http://www.peepsplace.com/showthread.php?p=726614#post726614