Wednesday, April 21, 2010

NBA Home Court Advantage

I've been watching this for years, how much is Home Court Advantage (HCA) worth in the NBA playoffs? Not so much for the series, but primarily when a team is down 0-2 and the series goes home.

Example 1:
LAL G1 -7.5 (Covered)
LAL G2 -6 (Did not cover)
LAL G3 +3.5

Is a team going home down 0-2 is really 9.5 points better than when they were down 0-1?

Example 2:
PHX G1 -8.5 (Did not cover)
PHX G2 -8.5 (Covered)
PHX G3 PK

So this game for POR should have a little bit less urgency than OKC, so they're only 8.5 points better at home.

I know this basic look at the stats doesn't take into account countless other factors besides HCA, but it's something that just doesn't make sense to me. (I was too lazy to even check the 2009 playoffs and see what the true HCA was, but that's another story) I'll probably get absolutely worked because I'm going to make a few plays here tomorrow, but whatever. Let's see how this pans out.

1 comment:

Zach said...

I know teams going home 0-2 have done historically great against the spread in game 3. I've notice the same and it seems as if books have taken this into account. That being said, if I'm remembering right the 0-2 teams have still covered the majority of the time despite added points.