Thursday, April 15, 2010

I don't know

I don't get it. I haven't really changed anything the from the past years doing this but we are getting absolutely rocked.

My YTD MLB record is:
17-41-2 (-24.09 units; ROI: -28.3%)

Ouch. Another big blown save today by ARI and another one yesterday hurt us a lot and WAS winning in the full game (finally), but pushing the 5in line was lame.

I haven't had a chance to see what the "expected" ROI vs "actual" ROI, but there's no way the expected is -28.3%.

Recently (last 2-3 days), I've also had a harder time beating the closing lines, mostly because I'm hitting dime and 20 cent lines at opening and comparing them to matchbook, so I may start making plays the day of and comparing to 5 inning lines and just taking which one I like better, or reverting back to 100% 5 inning lines.

I'll continue to monitor, but I am tired of losing so much money on [Matchbook], [BetJM] and everywhere else, especially with the credit card limits of 300-500 per deposit.

Anyone have any thoughts? Do you prefer 5 inning lines or full game lines? Hitting early lines at [Bookmaker]/[BetJM] or same day at [Matchbook]?

3 comments:

Zach said...

Obv, biggest concern would be not beating closing lines. In terms of how you decide to bet, I'd do whatever you think is most profitable for you or less stressful. Thanks for continuing to post picks, the bad start will turn into a hot streak soon enough.

stekek said...

If it's any consolation I look at a few sabermetric modelers selections every day and all of them are down so far this season. Variance is clearly smiling on the other side right now, Ariz game last night a case in point where a throwing error allowed the tying run to score.

As for Bookmaker...switch to BetJam. They are up very shortly after BM's open and no 20 cent lines.

dudeimstoked said...

im using both bookmaker and betjam for opening lines. the limit at betjam for overnight is 300. sportsbook.com also has overnight lines that come up a little bit later.