Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Record Update

Tuesday Results
2-1-0 (+0.7 units; ROI: 22.58%)

Wednesday Results
0-1-0 (-2.0 units; ROI: -100%)

Thursday Results
0-2-0 (-1.6 units; ROI: -100%)

Saturday Results
1-1-0 (+1.8 units; ROI: 85.71%)

Week Results
3-5-0 (-1.1 units; ROI: -12.5%)

YTD Results
123-146-18 (-14.83 units; ROI: -2.98%)

Tuesday Plays

Arizona 0.0 1H -137 (1) [Matchbook]
Atlanta -0.0 1H -122 (.7) [Matchbook]

I've been busy so I haven't had consistent plays. I should have more time this week.

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Saturday Plays

Washington Nationals +162 for 1st 5 innings (.5) [BetJM]
San Diego Padres +144 for 1st 5 innings (1.6) [BetJM]

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Tuesday Plays

WAS 1st 5 Innings 110 (1.1) [BetJM]
ARI 1st 5 Innings -139 (1.3) [BetJM]
SD 1st 5 Innings 123 (0.7) [BetJM]

Monday, June 22, 2009

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Record Update

Tuesday Results
0-1-0 (-0.7 units; ROI: -100%)

Friday Results
3-3-0 (+1.45 units; ROI: 25.43%)

Saturday Results
2-2-1 (+0.35 units; ROI: 8.974%)

Week Results
5-6-1 (+1.1 units; ROI: 10.67%)

YTD Results
97-118-15 (-15.78 units; ROI: -3.89%)

Saturday Plays

LAA 1st 5 Innings -173 (0.5) [BetJM]
CIN 1st 5 Innings -150 (0.7) [BetJM]
ATL 1st 5 Innings 154 (0.7) [BetJM]
SFN 1st 5 Innings -138 (1.2) [Matchbook]
SEA 1st 5 Innings -118 (0.8) [Matchbook]

Friday, June 19, 2009

Friday Plays

Chicago Cubs -105 for 1st 5 Innings (.9) [BetJM]

More to come later.

Added Plays
Toronto 0.0 1H +105 (.6) [Matchbook]
Atlanta 0.0 1H +135 (1) [Matchbook]
Houston 0.0 1H +139 (.8) [Matchbook]
San Francisco -0.0 1H +100 (1.6) [Matchbook]
LAD 1H +100 (.8) [BetJM]

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

No Plays Today

My spreadsheet just went to hell so it'll take me a few days to fix. Be back soon.

Monday, June 15, 2009

Record Update

Friday Results
0-2-0 (-2.5 units; ROI: -100%)

Saturday Results
2-0-1 (+1.45 units; ROI: 72.5%)

Week Results
7-5-2 (-0.29 units; ROI: -1.45%)

YTD Results
115-135-17 (-14.83 units; ROI: -3.10%)

Saturday, June 13, 2009

Saturday Plays

WAS 1st 5 Innings 138 (0.6) [BetJM]
PIT 1st 5 Innings -113 (0.7) [Matchbook]
SEA 1st 5 Innings 158 (0.7) [5Dimes]

Friday, June 12, 2009

Friday Plays

PIT 1st 5 in +120 (1.5) [BetJM]
SDN 1st 5 in +137 (1) [BetJM]

I cut the recommended unit sizes in half because of interleague play, ie PIT is really a 3 unit play. I'm not 100% confident in my interleague stuff and especially when using Kelly Criterion small inefficiencies make a big difference.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Thursday NBA Plays

Again...
Orlando 1st 6 min of 1st Quarter -113 [5Dimes]

Midweek Update

Sunday
MLB
1-1-0 (-0.26 units; ROI: -7.22%)

NBA
1-1-0 (-.09 units)
Courtney Lee. Courtney Lee. Courtney Lee.

Monday
0-2-0 (-4.3 units; ROI: -100%)

Tuesday
2-0-0 (+3.34 units; ROI: 85.64%)

Wednesday
1-0-1 (+1.07 units; ROI: 44.58%)

Thursday Plays

KC 1st 5 Innings -132 (1.2) [BetJM]

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Wednesday Plays

CHW 1st 5 in +132 (1.3) [Matchbook]
- I got this at matchbook, but I ate up pretty much everything that was there. [BetJM] has it for +126.
STL 1st 5 in -103 (1.1) [Matchbook]

Monday, June 8, 2009

Sunday, June 7, 2009

Sunday NBA Plays

So on 2+2 there's this guy known as the bay area beast. He's more or less regarded as the biggest fish in the world. He likes the Lakers tonight.

ORL +300 for Game (1) [Matchbook]
ORL +1.5 -110 for 1st 6 Minutes (1) [5Dimes]

Sunday Plays

Los Angeles Angels +105 for 1st 5 Innings (2.3) [BetJM]
Texas Rangers +157 for 1st 5 Innings (1.3) [BetJM]

I couldn't pass up the opportunity to bet against Dice K.

Saturday, June 6, 2009

Record Update

Saturday Results
0-1-1 (-1.8 units; ROI: -60%)

Week Results
13-10-4 (+6.88 units; ROI: 16.98%)

YTD Results
108-130-15 (-14.54 units; ROI: -3.17%)

Probably no plays on Sunday. Back on Monday.

Friday Results

2-4-1 (-3.09 units; ROI: -29.7%)

Saturday Plays

ATL 1st 5 Innings -170 (1.8) [SIA]
SEA 1st 5 Innings -109 (1.2) [BetJM]

Edit: Just confirmed the email went out. If you did not receive it and you are enrolled in post notification, please let me know. Make sure you haven't blocked mail@puresabermetrics.com or it is not in your spam folder.

Friday, June 5, 2009

Wednesday and Thursday Results

Wednesday
2-0-1 (+2.39 units; ROI: 64.59%)

Thursday
MLB
2-3-0 (-0.6 units; ROI: -9.52%)

NBA
0-3-0 (-3.0 units; ROI: -100%)
Freaking lost the 6 min plays by like 8 seconds.

Friday Plays

San Francisco Giants +144 for 1st 5 Innings (1.5) [BetJM]
San Diego Padres -104 for 1st 5 Innings (1.3) [BetJM]
Los Angeles Dodgers -127 for 1st 5 Innings (1.3) [BetJM]
Los Angeles Angels +156 for 1st 5 Innings (1) [BetJM]
Texas Rangers +121 for 1st 5 Innings (1.2) [BetJM]
Chicago White Sox -123 for 1st 5 Innings (1.1) [BetJM]
KC Royals -140 for 1st 5 Innings (3) [SIA]

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Thursday NBA Plays

ORL +266 for Game (1) [Matchbook]

Possibly a 6 min play also. I haven't decided. I want to verify the starting lineup for LAL.

Added Play
ORL 1st 6 Min +100 (1) [5Dimes]

1 more unit
ORL 1st 6 Min +101 (1) [5Dimes]

Thursday Plays

PIT 1st 5 Innings 103 (1.1) [5Dimes]
HOU 1st 5 Innings -156 (1.3) [5Dimes]
TOR 1st 5 Innings -108 (1.1) [5Dimes]
TEX 1st 5 Innings 139 (1) [5Dimes]
SFN 1st 5 Innings -108 (1.8) [5Dimes]

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Wednesday Plays

MIL 1st 5 Innings -104 (1.1) [Matchbook]
COL 1st 5 Innings -107 (1.1) [Matchbook]
CLE 1st 5 Innings -113 (1.5) [Matchbook]

5 Inning Plays

There were 2 good questions left in the comments of yesterday's results post and I thought it was a good idea to highlight them and make a separate post for them since the question is probably on a lot more people's minds.

Question(s):


What are you doing when the indicators point to a game play rather than a 5 inning play? Are you passing the game or playing in 5 innings anyway, even though it is counterindicated?


Are you only playing 5 inn plays now? And what if a team looks strong for the game and has a strong pen but is going against a team like Wash with a weak BP?


I am only doing 5 inning plays right now. I have never liked my bullpen projections because it is so variable every day. For example, the Dodgers use a very different bullpen when they are up by 1 run vs down by 1 run. Also, high variance games (think LAA and NYY earlier this year) where the bullpen gets shelled skew the current year statistics and make their bullpens look worse than they may actually be.

Right now I am ONLY looking at 5 inning plays. I am not even looking at my full game projections because I just don't trust them at this moment. If there is a strong bullpen vs weak bullpen I am not taking the full game line of the strong bullpen either, mostly because I still don't trust the numbers enough to put my money on it yet. As the year progresses, I anticipate adding the full game lines back in, but I haven't made any real decisions.

I hope this turns out to be a good for our bankrolls and, as of yesterday, it has looked good.

Currently we're up about 10 units since Sunday. So far, so good.

If you have any other questions, keep them coming.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Tuesday Results

4-0-1 (+7.5 units; ROI: 80.64%)

It was a good day to be on 5in.

Tuesday Plays

COL 1st 5 Innings -125 (1.7) [Matchbook]
KC 1st 5 Innings 147 (1.1) [BetJM]
ARI 1st 5 Innings 104 (1.2) [BetJM]
BOS 1st 5 Innings 121 (2.4) [BetJM]
SFN 1st 5 Innings -146 (2.9) [BetJM]

Monday, June 1, 2009

Monday Results

1-1-0 (+0.38 units; ROI: 13.57%)

NBA Finals Projections

Updated on APBRMetrics.com
















NBA Finals
Orlando Magic vs Los Angeles Lakers
Orlando Series Win %43.92%
Los Angeles Series Win %56.08%


These include a lot of season stats with Jameer Nelson and with regular home court advantage (HCA is higher in the playoffs) so I estimate more of a 35% chance for Orlando (maybe a tad lower), but then again I haven't run the numbers.

Monday Plays

FLA 1st 5in -116 (1.3) [Matchbook]
CIN 1st 5in +112 (1.5) [BetJM]