Wednesday, June 3, 2009

5 Inning Plays

There were 2 good questions left in the comments of yesterday's results post and I thought it was a good idea to highlight them and make a separate post for them since the question is probably on a lot more people's minds.

Question(s):


What are you doing when the indicators point to a game play rather than a 5 inning play? Are you passing the game or playing in 5 innings anyway, even though it is counterindicated?


Are you only playing 5 inn plays now? And what if a team looks strong for the game and has a strong pen but is going against a team like Wash with a weak BP?


I am only doing 5 inning plays right now. I have never liked my bullpen projections because it is so variable every day. For example, the Dodgers use a very different bullpen when they are up by 1 run vs down by 1 run. Also, high variance games (think LAA and NYY earlier this year) where the bullpen gets shelled skew the current year statistics and make their bullpens look worse than they may actually be.

Right now I am ONLY looking at 5 inning plays. I am not even looking at my full game projections because I just don't trust them at this moment. If there is a strong bullpen vs weak bullpen I am not taking the full game line of the strong bullpen either, mostly because I still don't trust the numbers enough to put my money on it yet. As the year progresses, I anticipate adding the full game lines back in, but I haven't made any real decisions.

I hope this turns out to be a good for our bankrolls and, as of yesterday, it has looked good.

Currently we're up about 10 units since Sunday. So far, so good.

If you have any other questions, keep them coming.

3 comments:

Harry said...

If bullpenn numbers are so hard to judge why not always bet 5 Inning games? Seems like a lot less work with a lot less variance. Are the lines that much better?

mikey said...

can u go back to your 07 and 08 mlb records, taking only the ML picks, and looking at just the 5-inning pick results, and sharing those w/ us?

as a whole for 07 and 08 combined, your ROI was about 7.2% which is very impressive. i'm just wondering what the breakdown is for those 2-yrs combined btwn the 5-inning picks vs. the full-game picks.

if it turns out the bulk of your profits for those 2-yrs came from full-game picks, then it suggests this yr is simply a fluke, no?

dudeimstoked said...

"If bullpenn numbers are so hard to judge why not always bet 5 Inning games? Seems like a lot less work with a lot less variance. Are the lines that much better?"

- There can be less variance in the full game lines because over the long haul, the better pitcher/better hitters will perform better over 9 innings, whereas you can get lucky in a few innings. I will for the most part only be doing 5 inning lines. The lines for 5 innings tend to be worse because there is more juice on them. Also, as stated before, if there is a good bullpen vs bad bullpen, the full game line may be better on the good bullpen team.

can u go back to your 07 and 08 mlb records, taking only the ML picks, and looking at just the 5-inning pick results, and sharing those w/ us?

- I would love to, but the history was all stored at smartcapper.com, which is now gone so I don't have the individual game results or even a bet history. It's all posted here, so if you would like to go through the past few years of posts, be my guest.

-In the past, there have been primarily full game lines bet, I estimate about 80-90% of all bets were full game lines, mostly because I wasn't confident of my ability to predict 5in results.