Pure Sabermetrics

The Data Mining Project

Archive for May, 2009

Sunday Results

2-1-0 (+2.1 units; ROI: 42%)

Good first day back.

Sunday Plays

WAS 1st 5 Innings 116 (2) [5Dimes]
SD 1st 5 Innings 137 (1.9) [Matchbook]
OAK 1st 5 Innings 136 (1.1) [5Dimes]

Baseball Update

I have really enjoyed this week off from betting baseball. Very relaxing…anyways I will begin posting plays next Sunday/Monday.

Probably only 5 inning plays for a little bit until I get more confident in the bullpen stats

I started a new “Handicapping” category. I’m going to try and make some semi-informative handicapping posts. We’ll see if that happens or not. I’m currently working on a NBA Playoff home court advantage thing.

Record Update

Some of you have asked what the difference is between my 1st 5/Game record. I found the results very surprising…

Full Game Record
79-103-8 (-19.22 units; ROI: -5.59%)

1st 5 Inning Record
73-85-10 (-1.91 units; ROI: -0.62%)

NBA Conference Finals Projections

I posted some projections on www.apbrmetrics.com but I don’t think they’re that accurate. Well, not enough for betting purposes I don’t think.  Any thoughts?

Here they are:

Conference Finals
Orlando Magic vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Orlando Series Win % 30.83%
Cleveland Series Win % 69.17%
Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Lakers
Denver Series Win % 20.25%
Los Angeles Series Win % 79.75%

Current prices on [Matchbook] are:
CLE -600
LAL -250

Record Update

Long overdue…

Week Results
13-23-3 (-19.62 units; ROI: -26.5%)

YTD Results
95-120-11 (-21.42 units; ROI: -5.13%)

I will be taking a week or two off from betting MLB. Maybe I can cool the OAK love in the week.

Saturday Plays

HOU Game -101 (1.5) [Matchbook]
CIN Game -121 (1.6) [Matchbook]
CHW Game 113 (1.5) [5Dimes]
TBA Game -159 (1.2) [Matchbook]
OAK Game 128 (4.3) [Matchbook]

The love affair with OAK continues…

Friday Plays

KC Game -126 (1.2) [Matchbook]
LAD 1st 5 Innings 127 (1.9) [Matchbook]
MIN 1st 5 Innings 116 (1.6) [Matchbook]
OAK Game 145 (1.4) [SIA]
TBA Game -153 (1.9) [Matchbook]
SEA 1st 5 Innings 141 (1) [5Dimes]

Thursday Plays

LAD 1st 5 Innings 122 )1.7) [BetJM]
SD 1st 5 Innings 154 (2) [BetJM]
SEA 1st 5 Innings -107 (3.1) [BetJM]
LAA 1st 5 Innings -130 (1.3) [SIA]
TOR Game 130 (1.6) [Matchbook]
KC Game -126 (1.2) [Matchbook]

I’ll post results for the past few days tonight.

Wednesday Plays

ATL 1st 5 in +136 (2.2) [BetJM]

Added Plays
LAD 1st 5 Innings -101 2.6
SD 1st 5 Innings 140 1.5
HOU 1st 5 Innings 148 1.6
CIN 1st 5 Innings -128 2.7
TBA Game -107 1.7
SEA 1st 5 Innings 125 2.5
KC 1st 5 Innings 108 2.4
BOS Game -105 2.2

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