Thursday, December 31, 2009

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Wednesday Plays

Sacramento Kings 3rd Quarter -½ -110 (1.5) [5Dimes]
Sacramento Kings 2nd Quarter -½ -110 (2.5) [5Dimes]
Indiana Pacers 2nd Quarter +½ -110 (4.5) [5Dimes]

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Tuesday Results

2Q
1-0-0 (+3.18 units; ROI: 90.85%)

Tuesday Plays

Golden State Warriors 2nd Quarter +3 -110 (3.5) [5Dimes]

Record Update

Monday Results
2Q
0-1-0 (-3 units; ROI: -100%)

Tuesday Results
2Q
1-1-0 (-3.18 units; ROI: -45.4%)

Wednesday Results
2Q
2-0-0 (+6.36 units; ROI: 90.85%)

3Q
1-0-0 (+4.55 units; ROI: 91%)

Monday Results
2Q
1-0-0 (+1.82 units; ROI: 91%)

3Q
1-0-0 (+0.91 units; ROI: 91%)

YTD Results
2Q
12-6-0 (+7.37 units; ROI: 15.35%)

3Q
3-4-0 (-3.63 units; ROI: -21.%)

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Wednesday Plays

GSW 2Q +2.5 -110 (1.5) [5Dimes]
SAC 2Q +1.5 -110 (5.5) [5Dimes]

SAC 3Q +1.5 -110 (5) [5Dimes]

Can I please win a 3Q play...

Friday, December 18, 2009

Wednesday and Friday Results

Wednesday
2Q
1-1-0 (+1.38 units; ROI: 39.42%)

Friday
2Q
3-1-0 (+4.32 units; ROI: 43.2%)

3Q
1-3-0 (-6.09 units; ROI: -76.0%)

Friday Plays

2Q
MIL Q2 2.5 -110 (2.5) [5Dimes]
SAC Q2 -.5 -110 (2.5) [5Dimes]
IND Q2 1.5 -110 (3) [5Dimes]
GSW Q2 -1 -110 (2) [5Dimes]

3Q
ATL 3Q -2 -110 (1) [5Dimes]
IND 3Q -1.5 -110 (1.5) [5Dimes]
SAC 3Q -.5 -110 (4) [5Dimes]

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Monday, December 14, 2009

Friday, December 11, 2009

Friday Plays

PHX Q2 -.5 -110 (3.5) [5Dimes]
OKC Q2 +.5 -110 (2.5) [5Dimes]
GSW Q2 +1.5 -110 (1) [5Dimes]
DAL Q2 +.5 -110 (4) [5Dimes]
IND Q2 -1 -110 (2) [5Dimes]

That's it until Monday kids.

Monday, December 7, 2009

NBA Plays

I've been working hard on a few new systems so the NBA quarters (2Q,3Q,4Q) one had taken a back burner. I finished it a few days ago and will start posting plays starting today (if there are any).

Monday, November 2, 2009

2009-2010 NBA Season Plays

I will be keeping my 1Q and 1st 6 Minute plays to myself this year as I don't feel that comfortable releasing them right now. I plan on keeping my 2Q, 3Q, and 4Q plays public. I may reopen the NBA player props handicapping if I have enough time.

I am going to wait for a few weeks while I gather more stats. I don't want to make plays off of projected statistics.

Monday, October 19, 2009

Monday Plays

I haven't forgot. This is the first line this postseason that has interested me.

MLB
LAD +113 1st 5 Innings (1.5) [Matchbook]

NBA Team Season Wins

So this year I tried to do projections for the upcoming NBA season. They might suck. They might really suck. Here are the bets off of these projections.

All for 1 unit from[Sportsbook.com]/[SuperBook].

Minnesota T-Wolves Over 25.5 (-130)
Cleveland Cavaliers Over 61 (-125)
Boston Celtics Over 58 (-130)
San Antonio Spurs Under 55 (-105)
Sacramento Kings Under 24 (-125)
Detroit Pistons Under 41.5 (-130)
Phoenix Suns Under 40.5 (-130)
New Jersey Nets Under 28 (-130)
Chicago Bulls Over 41 (-125)

Saturday, October 3, 2009

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Tuesday Plays

Florida Marlins +110 for 1st 5 Innings (1.3) [BetJM]
St Louis Cardinals -120 for 1st 5 Innings (2.2) [BetJM]
Baltimore Orioles +181 for Game 1st 5 Innings (2.3) [BetJM]

Monday, September 28, 2009

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Sunday Plays

CLE +14 -110 (1) [Skybook]/[SportBet]

Saturday Plays

Cincinnati Reds +144 for 1st 5 Innings (1.4) [BetJM]
New York Mets +131 for 1st 5 Innings (3.3) [BetJM]
Arizona Diamondbacks -174 for 1st 5 Innings (1.4) [BetJM]
New York Yankees -167 for 1st 5 Innings (2.4) [BetJM]
Minnesota Twins -158 for 1st 5 Innings (1.2) [BetJM]

Friday, September 25, 2009

Friday Plays

St Louis Cardinals -146 for 1st 5 Innings (2.4) [BetJM]
Tampa Bay Rays -114 for 1st 5 Innings (2) [BetJM]
Kansas City Royals -110 for 1st 5 Innings (4.1) [BetJM]

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Wednesday Plays

Milwaukee Brewers -129 for 1st 5 Innings (1.5) [BetJM]
New York Yankees +125 for 1st 5 Innings (1.1) [BetJM]
Cleveland Indians +100 for 1st 5 Innings (1.7) [BetJM]
Seattle Mariners +157 for 1st 5 Innings (1.4) [BetJM]
Chicago White Sox -116 for 1st 5 Innings (1.6) [BetJM]

No WNBA plays.

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Tuesday Plays

Atlanta -161 1st 5 Innings (1.7) [Matchbook]
Kansas City -155 1st 5 Innings (1.7) [Matchbook]
St Louis Cardinals -147 for 1st 5 Innings (4.1) [BetJM]
Chicago White Sox -153 for 1st 5 Innings (1.6) [BetJM]

Lots of chalk

Monday, September 21, 2009

Monday Plays

Chicago Cubs +120 for Game (1.5) [BetJM]
New York Yankees -105 for 1st 5 Innings (1.1) [BetJM]

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Wednesday Plays

Washington Nationals +210 for 1st 5 Innings (1.6) [BetJM]
Cincinnati Reds -120 for 1st 5 Innings (2) [BetJM]
Chicago Cubs -164 for 1st 5 Innings (1.4) [BetJM]
San Francisco Giants -116 1st 5 Innings (1.3) [BetJM]
Boston Red Sox +111 for 1st 5 Innings (1.4) [BetJM]

WNBA
Seattle Storm +6 -103 (1.4) [5Dimes]

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Sunday Results

MLB
4-2-0 (+6.6 units; ROI: 56.89%)

Sunday Plays

MLB
Tampa Bay Rays 1st 5 Innings +175 (1.3) [5Dimes]
Seattle Mariners 1st 5 Innings -135 (2.3) [5Dimes]
Toronto Blue Jays +134 for 1st 5 Innings (1.4) [BetJM]
Washington Nationals +135 for 1st 5 Innings (2) [BetJM]
Pittsburgh Pirates +133 for 1st 5 Innings (2.9) [BetJM]
Chicago Cubs -164 for 1st 5 Innings (1.7) [BetJM]

NFL
No Plays.

Thursday, September 10, 2009

NFL This Season

Last year I tried to post some basic strategy (Wong) teasers and we got rocked mostly because of bad luck/variance/whatever. This year I'm going to try something different.

Please sign up for:
[SportBet] or Skybook to take advantage of this. I will be using the free 1/2 points from these books.

No Plays Today

Maybe tomorrow...

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Wednesday Results

1-1-1 (+4.48 units; ROI: 61.36%)

In the black. I went ahead and graded them as 5 inning plays. The ARI/LAD game is not finished yet.

Wednesday Plays

Cincinnati Reds +156 for Game (1.4) [BetJM]
Arizona Diamondbacks -127 for Game (2.5) [BetJM]
Kansas City Royals +173 for Game (3.4) [BetJM]

o crap these were supposed to be for 1st 5 innings...

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Record Update

MLB
Tuesday Results
3-2-0 (+5.79 units; ROI: 45.59%)

YTD Results
147-168-26 (-0.04 units; ROI: -0.00%)

WNBA
YTD Results
11-9-1 (+2 units; ROI: 5.71%)

Tuesday Plays

Washington Nationals +128 for 1st 5 Innings (2.2) [BetJM]
Atlanta Braves -140 for 1st 5 Innings (4) [BetJM]
Kansas City Royals +149 for 1st 5 Innings (2.6) [BetJM]
Oakland Athletics +136 for 1st 5 Innings (2.8) [BetJM]
Seattle Mariners +107 for 1st 5 Innings (1.1) [BetJM]

Friday, September 4, 2009

Friday Plays

San Francisco Giants -104 for 1st 5 Innings (1.6) [BetJM]
Arizona Diamondbacks -103 for 1st 5 Innings (3) [BetJM]

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Wednesday Plays

Pittsburgh Pirates +154 for 1st 5 Innings (1.9) [BetJM]
Kansas City Royals -121 for 1st 5 Innings (1.3) [BetJM]
Baltimore Orioles +146 for 1st 5 Innings (1.4) [BetJM]

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Tuesday Plays

Pittsburgh Pirates +155 for 1st 5 Innings (2.3) [BetJM]
Cincinnati Reds +125 for 1st 5 Innings (1.8) [BetJM]
Los Angeles Dodgers -113 for 1st 5 Innings (2) [BetJM]
Detroit Tigers +156 for 1st 5 Innings (1.6) [BetJM]

WNBA
Connecticut Sun -3½ -105 (1.8) [5Dimes]
Atlanta Dream -3 -107 (2.5) [5Dimes]

Friday, August 21, 2009

Friday Plays

Washington Nationals +110 for 1st 5 Innings (2) [BetJM]
New York Mets +163 for 1st 5 Innings (1.6) [BetJM]
San Francisco Giants +146 for 1st 5 Innings (1.9) [BetJM]
Texas Rangers +154 for 1st 5 Innings (1.1) [BetJM]

Added Play
WNBA
Connecticut Sun +3 -107 (1) [5Dimes]

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Friday Plays

WNBA
San Antonio Silver Stars/Atlanta Dream Under 166 -107 (1.8) [5Dimes]
Atlanta Dream -3 -105 (1.5) [5Dimes]

MLB
TOR +150 1st 5 Innings (1.8) [BetJM]
MIN +183 1st 5 Innings (1.8) [BetJM]

Monday, August 17, 2009

Monday Results

MLB
2-1-1 (+3.66 units; ROI: 65.35%)

Monday Plays

Los Angeles Angels -107 for 1st 5 Innings (1.5) [BetJM]
Minnesota Twins +121 for 1st 5 Innings (1.4) [BetJM]
Kansas City Royals +195 for 1st 5 Innings (1.4) [BetJM]
Oakland Athletics +179 for 1st 5 Innings (1.3) [BetJM]

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Record Update

Ok, I think I got all my record stuff updated.

MLB
Tuesday Results
4-2-0 (+5.06 units; ROI: 51.11%)

YTD Results
137-157-22 (-8.27 units; ROI: -1.53%)

WNBA
YTD Results
7-7-1 (-1.11 units; ROI: -4.4%)

Tuesday Plays

HOU 1st 5 Innings 114 (2.3) [BetJM]
CIN 1st 5 Innings 140 (1.8) [BetJM]
TEX 1st 5 Innings 108 (1.4) [BetJM]
OAK 1st 5 Innings 165 (2.2) [BetJM]
TOR 1st 5 Innings 224 (1) [BetJM]
LAA 1st 5 Innings 107 (1.2) [BetJM]

No WNBA plays today.

Sunday, August 9, 2009

Sunday Plays

WNBA
Minnesota Lynx -2 -110 for Game (1.3)
San Antonio Silver Stars/Minnesota Lynx Under 158½ -105 (1)

MLB
FLO 1st 5in -113 (2.3)
CHC 1st 5in +106 (1.2)
CHW 1st 5in -140 (1.1)
WAS 1st 5in +103 (1)

Saturday, August 8, 2009

Saturday Plays

Indiana Fever/Phoenix Mercury Under 175 -104 (1.5) [5Dimes]
Atlanta Dream -6 -107 (1.7) [5Dimes]

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Out of Commission

I am in the process of moving to a new place so there will probably not be any plays for a few days. Probably next week. Have a restful, not bet sweating time.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Sunday Plays

NYM 1st 5 Innings 137 (1.3) [BetJM]
ATL 1st 5 Innings -115 (1.1) [BetJM]
ARI 1st 5 Innings -179 (1.4) [BetJM]
CHW 1st 5 Innings 123 (1.1) [BetJM]
BOS 1st 5 Innings -175 (1) [BetJM]
SEA 1st 5 Innings 125 (1.2) [BetJM]

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Wednesday Plays

Connecticut Sun -8 -107 (1.7) [5Dimes]

Seattle Mariners -128 for Game (2.1) [BetJM]
Kansas City Royals +102 for Game (1.4) [BetJM]

Monday, July 20, 2009

Monday Plays

Kansas City Royals +110 for 1st 5 Innings (2.8) [BetJM]
Boston Red Sox -101 for 1st 5 Innings (1.2) [BetJM]
St Louis Cardinals +159 for 1st 5 Innings (3.6) [BetJM]

I'm pretty sure the STL line will be no-actioned.

Saturday, July 18, 2009

Saturday Plays

Phoenix Mercury -4½ -107 (1.2) [5Dimes]

Working on some MLB ones, not sure if they'll be ready in time.

MLB
Florida -0.0 1H -119 (1.3) [Matchbook]
Seattle 0.0 1H -115 (3.3) [Matchbook]
Kansas City -0.0 1H -123 (1.4) [Matchbook]
ARI 1st 5 innings +100 (1.8) [BetJM]

Sunday, July 12, 2009

Sunday Plays

WNBA
Chicago Sky/Seattle Storm Over 139 -103 (1) [5Dimes]
Minnesota Lynx +7 +100 (2) [5Dimes]

Amazingly, no MLB plays.

Friday, July 10, 2009

Friday Plays

Minnesota Lynx -2½ -103 (3.1) [5Dimes]

I'll work on posting records later this week.

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Thursday Plays

Got off from work early today...

Sacramento Monarchs/Seattle Storm Over 140 -105 (1.5) [5Dimes]
Seattle Storm -7½ -106 (1.6) [5Dimes]

Sunday, July 5, 2009

Sunday Plays

Connecticut Sun +3½ -110 for Game (2.9) [BetJM]
Phoenix Mercury/LA Sparks Under 168 -105 [5Dimes]

Saturday, July 4, 2009

Saturday Plays

New York Mets +136 for 1st 5 Innings (1.4) [BetJM]

Added Play
Tampa Bay 0.0 1H -121 (1.8) [Matchbook]

Friday, July 3, 2009

Friday Plays

ATL 1st 5 Innings -118 (1.3) [Matchbook]
TBA 1st 5 Innings -138 (1.2) [Matchbook]
LAA 1st 5 Innings -141 (1.9) [Matchbook]
PIT 1st 5 Innings 144 (1.1) [BetJM]
ARI 1st 5 Innings 118 (1.4) [BetJM]

WNBA
Washington Mystics/Atlanta Dream under 167 -110 for Game (1.5) [BetJM]
Chicago 6.0 -102 (1.0) [Matchbook]

Thursday, July 2, 2009

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Record Update

Tuesday Results
2-1-0 (+0.7 units; ROI: 22.58%)

Wednesday Results
0-1-0 (-2.0 units; ROI: -100%)

Thursday Results
0-2-0 (-1.6 units; ROI: -100%)

Saturday Results
1-1-0 (+1.8 units; ROI: 85.71%)

Week Results
3-5-0 (-1.1 units; ROI: -12.5%)

YTD Results
123-146-18 (-14.83 units; ROI: -2.98%)

Tuesday Plays

Arizona 0.0 1H -137 (1) [Matchbook]
Atlanta -0.0 1H -122 (.7) [Matchbook]

I've been busy so I haven't had consistent plays. I should have more time this week.

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Saturday Plays

Washington Nationals +162 for 1st 5 innings (.5) [BetJM]
San Diego Padres +144 for 1st 5 innings (1.6) [BetJM]

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Tuesday Plays

WAS 1st 5 Innings 110 (1.1) [BetJM]
ARI 1st 5 Innings -139 (1.3) [BetJM]
SD 1st 5 Innings 123 (0.7) [BetJM]

Monday, June 22, 2009

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Record Update

Tuesday Results
0-1-0 (-0.7 units; ROI: -100%)

Friday Results
3-3-0 (+1.45 units; ROI: 25.43%)

Saturday Results
2-2-1 (+0.35 units; ROI: 8.974%)

Week Results
5-6-1 (+1.1 units; ROI: 10.67%)

YTD Results
97-118-15 (-15.78 units; ROI: -3.89%)

Saturday Plays

LAA 1st 5 Innings -173 (0.5) [BetJM]
CIN 1st 5 Innings -150 (0.7) [BetJM]
ATL 1st 5 Innings 154 (0.7) [BetJM]
SFN 1st 5 Innings -138 (1.2) [Matchbook]
SEA 1st 5 Innings -118 (0.8) [Matchbook]

Friday, June 19, 2009

Friday Plays

Chicago Cubs -105 for 1st 5 Innings (.9) [BetJM]

More to come later.

Added Plays
Toronto 0.0 1H +105 (.6) [Matchbook]
Atlanta 0.0 1H +135 (1) [Matchbook]
Houston 0.0 1H +139 (.8) [Matchbook]
San Francisco -0.0 1H +100 (1.6) [Matchbook]
LAD 1H +100 (.8) [BetJM]

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

No Plays Today

My spreadsheet just went to hell so it'll take me a few days to fix. Be back soon.

Monday, June 15, 2009

Record Update

Friday Results
0-2-0 (-2.5 units; ROI: -100%)

Saturday Results
2-0-1 (+1.45 units; ROI: 72.5%)

Week Results
7-5-2 (-0.29 units; ROI: -1.45%)

YTD Results
115-135-17 (-14.83 units; ROI: -3.10%)

Saturday, June 13, 2009

Saturday Plays

WAS 1st 5 Innings 138 (0.6) [BetJM]
PIT 1st 5 Innings -113 (0.7) [Matchbook]
SEA 1st 5 Innings 158 (0.7) [5Dimes]

Friday, June 12, 2009

Friday Plays

PIT 1st 5 in +120 (1.5) [BetJM]
SDN 1st 5 in +137 (1) [BetJM]

I cut the recommended unit sizes in half because of interleague play, ie PIT is really a 3 unit play. I'm not 100% confident in my interleague stuff and especially when using Kelly Criterion small inefficiencies make a big difference.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Thursday NBA Plays

Again...
Orlando 1st 6 min of 1st Quarter -113 [5Dimes]

Midweek Update

Sunday
MLB
1-1-0 (-0.26 units; ROI: -7.22%)

NBA
1-1-0 (-.09 units)
Courtney Lee. Courtney Lee. Courtney Lee.

Monday
0-2-0 (-4.3 units; ROI: -100%)

Tuesday
2-0-0 (+3.34 units; ROI: 85.64%)

Wednesday
1-0-1 (+1.07 units; ROI: 44.58%)

Thursday Plays

KC 1st 5 Innings -132 (1.2) [BetJM]

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Wednesday Plays

CHW 1st 5 in +132 (1.3) [Matchbook]
- I got this at matchbook, but I ate up pretty much everything that was there. [BetJM] has it for +126.
STL 1st 5 in -103 (1.1) [Matchbook]

Monday, June 8, 2009

Sunday, June 7, 2009

Sunday NBA Plays

So on 2+2 there's this guy known as the bay area beast. He's more or less regarded as the biggest fish in the world. He likes the Lakers tonight.

ORL +300 for Game (1) [Matchbook]
ORL +1.5 -110 for 1st 6 Minutes (1) [5Dimes]

Sunday Plays

Los Angeles Angels +105 for 1st 5 Innings (2.3) [BetJM]
Texas Rangers +157 for 1st 5 Innings (1.3) [BetJM]

I couldn't pass up the opportunity to bet against Dice K.

Saturday, June 6, 2009

Record Update

Saturday Results
0-1-1 (-1.8 units; ROI: -60%)

Week Results
13-10-4 (+6.88 units; ROI: 16.98%)

YTD Results
108-130-15 (-14.54 units; ROI: -3.17%)

Probably no plays on Sunday. Back on Monday.

Friday Results

2-4-1 (-3.09 units; ROI: -29.7%)

Saturday Plays

ATL 1st 5 Innings -170 (1.8) [SIA]
SEA 1st 5 Innings -109 (1.2) [BetJM]

Edit: Just confirmed the email went out. If you did not receive it and you are enrolled in post notification, please let me know. Make sure you haven't blocked mail@puresabermetrics.com or it is not in your spam folder.

Friday, June 5, 2009

Wednesday and Thursday Results

Wednesday
2-0-1 (+2.39 units; ROI: 64.59%)

Thursday
MLB
2-3-0 (-0.6 units; ROI: -9.52%)

NBA
0-3-0 (-3.0 units; ROI: -100%)
Freaking lost the 6 min plays by like 8 seconds.

Friday Plays

San Francisco Giants +144 for 1st 5 Innings (1.5) [BetJM]
San Diego Padres -104 for 1st 5 Innings (1.3) [BetJM]
Los Angeles Dodgers -127 for 1st 5 Innings (1.3) [BetJM]
Los Angeles Angels +156 for 1st 5 Innings (1) [BetJM]
Texas Rangers +121 for 1st 5 Innings (1.2) [BetJM]
Chicago White Sox -123 for 1st 5 Innings (1.1) [BetJM]
KC Royals -140 for 1st 5 Innings (3) [SIA]

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Thursday NBA Plays

ORL +266 for Game (1) [Matchbook]

Possibly a 6 min play also. I haven't decided. I want to verify the starting lineup for LAL.

Added Play
ORL 1st 6 Min +100 (1) [5Dimes]

1 more unit
ORL 1st 6 Min +101 (1) [5Dimes]

Thursday Plays

PIT 1st 5 Innings 103 (1.1) [5Dimes]
HOU 1st 5 Innings -156 (1.3) [5Dimes]
TOR 1st 5 Innings -108 (1.1) [5Dimes]
TEX 1st 5 Innings 139 (1) [5Dimes]
SFN 1st 5 Innings -108 (1.8) [5Dimes]

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Wednesday Plays

MIL 1st 5 Innings -104 (1.1) [Matchbook]
COL 1st 5 Innings -107 (1.1) [Matchbook]
CLE 1st 5 Innings -113 (1.5) [Matchbook]

5 Inning Plays

There were 2 good questions left in the comments of yesterday's results post and I thought it was a good idea to highlight them and make a separate post for them since the question is probably on a lot more people's minds.

Question(s):


What are you doing when the indicators point to a game play rather than a 5 inning play? Are you passing the game or playing in 5 innings anyway, even though it is counterindicated?


Are you only playing 5 inn plays now? And what if a team looks strong for the game and has a strong pen but is going against a team like Wash with a weak BP?


I am only doing 5 inning plays right now. I have never liked my bullpen projections because it is so variable every day. For example, the Dodgers use a very different bullpen when they are up by 1 run vs down by 1 run. Also, high variance games (think LAA and NYY earlier this year) where the bullpen gets shelled skew the current year statistics and make their bullpens look worse than they may actually be.

Right now I am ONLY looking at 5 inning plays. I am not even looking at my full game projections because I just don't trust them at this moment. If there is a strong bullpen vs weak bullpen I am not taking the full game line of the strong bullpen either, mostly because I still don't trust the numbers enough to put my money on it yet. As the year progresses, I anticipate adding the full game lines back in, but I haven't made any real decisions.

I hope this turns out to be a good for our bankrolls and, as of yesterday, it has looked good.

Currently we're up about 10 units since Sunday. So far, so good.

If you have any other questions, keep them coming.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Tuesday Results

4-0-1 (+7.5 units; ROI: 80.64%)

It was a good day to be on 5in.

Tuesday Plays

COL 1st 5 Innings -125 (1.7) [Matchbook]
KC 1st 5 Innings 147 (1.1) [BetJM]
ARI 1st 5 Innings 104 (1.2) [BetJM]
BOS 1st 5 Innings 121 (2.4) [BetJM]
SFN 1st 5 Innings -146 (2.9) [BetJM]

Monday, June 1, 2009

Monday Results

1-1-0 (+0.38 units; ROI: 13.57%)

NBA Finals Projections

Updated on APBRMetrics.com
















NBA Finals
Orlando Magic vs Los Angeles Lakers
Orlando Series Win %43.92%
Los Angeles Series Win %56.08%


These include a lot of season stats with Jameer Nelson and with regular home court advantage (HCA is higher in the playoffs) so I estimate more of a 35% chance for Orlando (maybe a tad lower), but then again I haven't run the numbers.

Monday Plays

FLA 1st 5in -116 (1.3) [Matchbook]
CIN 1st 5in +112 (1.5) [BetJM]

Monday, May 25, 2009

Baseball Update

I have really enjoyed this week off from betting baseball. Very relaxing...anyways I will begin posting plays next Sunday/Monday.

Probably only 5 inning plays for a little bit until I get more confident in the bullpen stats

I started a new "Handicapping" category. I'm going to try and make some semi-informative handicapping posts. We'll see if that happens or not. I'm currently working on a NBA Playoff home court advantage thing.

Friday, May 22, 2009

Record Update

Some of you have asked what the difference is between my 1st 5/Game record. I found the results very surprising...

Full Game Record
79-103-8 (-19.22 units; ROI: -5.59%)

1st 5 Inning Record
73-85-10 (-1.91 units; ROI: -0.62%)

Monday, May 18, 2009

NBA Conference Finals Projections

I posted some projections on www.apbrmetrics.com but I don't think they're that accurate. Well, not enough for betting purposes I don't think.  Any thoughts?

Here they are:
































Conference Finals
Orlando Magic vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Orlando Series Win %30.83%
Cleveland Series Win %69.17%
Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Lakers
Denver Series Win %20.25%
Los Angeles Series Win %79.75%


Current prices on [Matchbook] are:
CLE -600
LAL -250

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Record Update

Long overdue...

Week Results
13-23-3 (-19.62 units; ROI: -26.5%)

YTD Results
95-120-11 (-21.42 units; ROI: -5.13%)

I will be taking a week or two off from betting MLB. Maybe I can cool the OAK love in the week.

Friday, May 15, 2009

Saturday Plays

HOU Game -101 (1.5) [Matchbook]
CIN Game -121 (1.6) [Matchbook]
CHW Game 113 (1.5) [5Dimes]
TBA Game -159 (1.2) [Matchbook]
OAK Game 128 (4.3) [Matchbook]

The love affair with OAK continues...

Friday Plays

KC Game -126 (1.2) [Matchbook]
LAD 1st 5 Innings 127 (1.9) [Matchbook]
MIN 1st 5 Innings 116 (1.6) [Matchbook]
OAK Game 145 (1.4) [SIA]
TBA Game -153 (1.9) [Matchbook]
SEA 1st 5 Innings 141 (1) [5Dimes]

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Thursday Plays

LAD 1st 5 Innings 122 )1.7) [BetJM]
SD 1st 5 Innings 154 (2) [BetJM]
SEA 1st 5 Innings -107 (3.1) [BetJM]
LAA 1st 5 Innings -130 (1.3) [SIA]
TOR Game 130 (1.6) [Matchbook]
KC Game -126 (1.2) [Matchbook]

I'll post results for the past few days tonight.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Wednesday Plays

ATL 1st 5 in +136 (2.2) [BetJM]

Added Plays
LAD 1st 5 Innings -101 2.6
SD 1st 5 Innings 140 1.5
HOU 1st 5 Innings 148 1.6
CIN 1st 5 Innings -128 2.7
TBA Game -107 1.7
SEA 1st 5 Innings 125 2.5
KC 1st 5 Innings 108 2.4
BOS Game -105 2.2

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Tuesday Plays

Atlanta +112 (1.5) [Matchbook]
Boston +115 (2) [SIA]
Seattle +135 (1.3) [Matchbook]
St. Louis -107 (1) [Matchbook]
Tampa Bay -125 (1.2) [Matchbook]

Sunday, May 10, 2009

Sunday Plays

KC +120 (2.8) [SIA]
PIT 1st 5 in +140 (1.2) [SIA]
SFN 1st 5 in -127 (2.4) [5Dimes]
CLE 1st in -120 (2) [SportBet]
NYY 1st 5 in -140 (1.4) [SportBet]
TEX 1st 5 in -105 (1.8) [5Dimes]
SEA 1st 5 in -115 (1.8) [5Dimes]
TOR 1st 5 in +101 (3.3) [5Dimes]

Saturday, May 9, 2009

Record Update

Saturday
2-3-0 (-4.28 units; ROI: -44.1%)

Week Results
19-23-1 (-4.36 units; ROI: -4.94%)

YTD Results
82-97-8 (-1.79 units; ROI: -0.52%)

Friday Results

1-3-0 (-3.93 units; ROI: -52.4%)

Friday, May 8, 2009

Saturday Plays

TBA Game 131 (1.2) [5Dimes]
OAK Game -103 (2.4) [Matchbook]
CHW Game -131 (1.5) [Matchbook]
SEA Game 116 (1.3) [5Dimes]
KC Game -115 (3.3) [Matchbook]

As of yesterday I have started including current year statistics.

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Results

Monday
3-5-0 (-3.84 units; ROI: -23.4%)

Tuesday
6-4-0 (+5.34 units; ROI: 25.18%)

Wednesday
3-7-1 (-7.55 units; ROI: -33.1%)

Wednesday Plays

PHI Game 225 (1.5) [SIA]
CHI 1st 5 Innings -142 (2.3) [5Dimes]
PIT 1st 5 Innings 129 (2.8) [BetJM]
SFN 1st 5 Innings 148 (3) [BetJM]
WAS 1st 5 Innings 183 (1.9) [BetJM]
MIN 1st 5 Innings -113 (1.1) [Matchbook]
BOS Game -179 (1.3) [Matchbook]
TBA Game 151 (1.1) [Matchbook]
CHW Game -109 (2) [Matchbook]
OAK Game -112 (1.9) [Matchbook]
TOR Game -146 (3.9) [Matchbook]

Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Tuesday Plays

SFN Game -104 (1.5) [Matchbook]
CIN Game 115 (2.7) [SIA]
PHI Game 120 (1.8) [Matchbook]
COL 1st 5 Innings -112 (1) [Matchbook]
ARI 1st 5 Innings 110 (3.3) [SIA]
TOR Game -118 (2.8) [Matchbook]
BAL 1st 5 Innings 170 (2) [SIA]
MIN 1st 5 Innings 100 (1.9) [Matchbook]
CHW 1st 5 Innings 117 (1.5) [Matchbook]
OAK Game -139 (2.7) [Matchbook]

Monday, May 4, 2009

Monday Plays

SFN Game 177 (1.8) [Matchbook]
BOS Game 102 (1.8) [Matchbook]
TOR Game -103 (2.7) [Matchbook]
OAK Game 107 (2.5) [Matchbook]
MIN 1st 5 Innings 121 (2) [Matchbook]
SEA Game -148 (1.4) [Matchbook]
CIN Game 145 (2.2) [SIA]
PHI Game 125 (2) [SIA]

Saturday, May 2, 2009

Sunday Plays

No plays Sunday. I do/will not have the time to look into it tonight/tomorrow. Check back Sunday night for Monday plays.

Record Update

Saturday Results
3-3-0 (+2.03 units; ROI: 23.33%)

Week Results
14-25-2 (-10.66 units; ROI: -15.1%)

YTD Results
63-74-7 (+2.56 units; ROI: 1.003%)

Friday, May 1, 2009

Thursday and Friday Results

Thursday
1-1-0 (+1.8 units; ROI: 50%)

Friday
3-4-1 (-0.98 units; ROI: -9.07%)

Saturday Plays

NYM +110 (1.5) [5Dimes]
HOU +117 (1.6) [5Dimes]
SD +152 (1.2) [5Dimes]
DET -102 (1.1) [Matchbook]
TBA +111 (1.1) [5Dimes]
KC +131 (2.2) [5Dimes]

Friday Plays

CIN 1st 5 Innings 116 (1.3) [BetJM]
SD 1st 5 Innings 118 (1.8) [BetJM]
SFN Game -104 (1.1) [Matchbook]
LAA 1st 5 Innings 132 (1.3) [BetJM]
CLE 1st 5 Innings 154 (1.5) [BetJM]
CHW Game -104 (1.3) [Matchbook]
KC Game 164 (1) [Matchbook]
OAK Game 104 (1.5) [Matchbook]

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Wednesday Plays

SD Game 138 (1) [Matchbook]
CHC Game -112 (1.4) [Matchbook]
NYY 1st 5 Innings -134 (5.2) [Matchbook]
OAK Game 133 (1.1) [Matchbook]
TOR Game 141 (1.1) [Matchbook]
TBA Game -121 (2.8) [Matchbook]

Largest play ever on NYY today. The full game line is not as good, try to get 5in.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Tuesday Results

2-5-0 (-4.81 units; ROI: -34.8%)
Blah.

Sunday and Monday Results

Sunday
3-6-0 (-4.25 units; ROI: -25.9%)

Monday
1-2-0 (-2.03 units; ROI: -45.1%)

Tuesday Plays

FLA 1st 5 Innings 115 (2.4) [BetJM]
PIT Game 144 (1.4) [Matchbook]
SD Game 135 (2.8) [Matchbook]
BOS Game 103 (2.1) [Matchbook]
OAK Game 133 (2.5) [Matchbook]
TBA Game -115 (1.5) [Matchbook]
SEA Game 119 (1.1) [Matchbook]

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Record Update

Saturday Results
6-2-0 (+12.12 units; ROI: 62.15%)

Week Results
24-19-0 (+18.38 units; ROI: 22.17%)

YTD Results
49-49-5 (+13.22 units; ROI: 7.161%)

Oh, and thanks to Carl for the first ever donation to my food fund.

Sunday Plays

Chicago Cubs -120 for Game (3) [BetJM]
Los Angeles Dodgers -142 for Game (2.1) [BetJM]
San Francisco Giants -105 for Game (1.2) [BetJM]
Texas Rangers +108 for Game (1.6) [BetJM]
Kansas City Royals +138 for Game (2.2) [BetJM]
Oakland Athletics +106 for Game (1.8) [BetJM]

Added Plays
Seattle +134 (1.3) [Matchbook]
Boston -119 (1.6) [Matchbook]
LAD +100 (1.5) [Matchbook]
The LAD line has got to be the worst line movement I've ever had on a play.

Saturday Plays

WAS 1st 5 Innings 159 (1.9) [BetJM]
CHC Game 101 (3.4) [Matchbook]
PHI Game 132 (2.9) [Matchbook]
SFN Game 137 (1.7) [Matchbook]
LAD Game 127 (1.7) [Matchbook]
OAK Game 108 (1.8) [Matchbook]
MIN 1st 5 Innings 122 (2.6) [BetJM]
SEA Game 114 (3.5) [Matchbook]

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Friday Plays

Los Angeles (N) +107 (1.4)
Philadelphia +124 (1.4)
Seattle -113 (4.2)
KC -150 (2.3)
SFN -110 (2.6)
CHN +120 (1.6)

Wednesday and Thursday Results

Wednesday
5-3-0 (+4.68 units; ROI: 34.16%)

Thursday
3-2-0 (+2.03 units; ROI: 22.55%)

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Thursday Plays

Toronto Blue Jays +110 (3) [5Dimes]
Kansas City Royals +106 (2.5) [5Dimes]
Los Angeles Dodgers -120 (1.5) [5Dimes]
Chicago White Sox -116 [5Dimes]
Seattle -102 [Matchbook]

Tuesday Results

1-7-0 (-9.81 units; ROI: -78.4%)

Wednesday Plays

New York Mets -109 (1.2) [Matchbook]
Oakland +226 (1.5) [Matchbook]
Chicago (A) -105 (1.2) [Matchbook]
Toronto -136 (2.5) [Matchbook]
Minnesota Twins GM 1 +143 for 5in (2) [BetJM]
KC +185 (1.5) [SIA]
DET +105 (2.5) [SIA]

Added Play
Boston GM2 -131 (1.3)

Monday, April 20, 2009

Tuesday Plays

FLA Game -119 (1.7) [5Dimes]
LAD Game -149 (1.1) [Matchbook]
NYM Game 102 (1.4) [5Dimes]
ARI Game -114 (2.1) [Matchbook]
SD Game -114 (1.1) [Matchbook]
CHW Game 101 (1.7) [5Dimes]
SEA Game 107 (1.3) [5Dimes]
KC Game 172 (2.1) [Matchbook]

Sunday and Monday Results

Sunday
2-4-0 (-2.21 units; ROI: -17.6%)
FU Natinals.

Monday
2-0-0 (+2.32 units; ROI: 105.4%)

NBA Plays

Chicago +197 Live Betting [Matchbook]
No way CHI with a 3 pt lead at the half with Rondo questionable to return is a 2-1 dog.

Chicago 6.0 2H +109 [Matchbook]

Monday Plays

Cincinnati +121 (1.1) [Matchbook]
Arizona -111 (1.1) [Matchbook]

Saturday, April 18, 2009

Sunday Plays

MIL Game 151 (2.3) [5Dimes]
WAS Game 139 (3.4) [Matchbook]
ATL Game -113 (2.4) [5Dimes]
OAK Game 107 (1.4) [BetJM]
BAL Game 188 (1.5) [5Dimes]
SEA Game -112 (1.5) [5Dimes]

Today is the day Washington will redeem themselves.

Record Update

MLB
Saturday Results
1-4-1 (-4.56 units; ROI: -48.5%)
That WAS game killed me. Gah.

Week Results
11-16-4 (-5.27 units; ROI: -10.0%)

YTD Results
25-30-5 (-5.16 units; ROI: -5.07%)

NBA
3Q
Week Results
1-0-0 (+1.82 units; ROI: 91%)

Friday Results

1-3-1 (-2.65 units; ROI: -27.8%)

NBA First Round Plays

San Antonio Series -129 (2) [Matchbook]

Saturday MLB Plays

WAS Game 155 (2.7) [SIA]
MIL Game 170 (1.1) [SIA]
CIN 1st 5 Innings 115 (1.1) [5Dimes]
TOR Game -110 (1.8) [Matchbook]
LAA Game 121 (1.3) [Matchbook]
KC 1st 5 Innings 103 (1.4) [BetJM]


I've been getting some great lines at [SIA] this whole season. If you don't have an account there, I'd highly recommend getting one.

Monday, April 13, 2009

Tuesday MLB Plays

Oakland Athletics Game +135 (1.3) [5Dimes]
Seattle Mariners Game -103 (1.1) [5Dimes]

Added Plays
Chicago White Sox 1st 5 Innings -125 (3.6) [Matchbook]
Atlanta Braves 1st 5 Innings -152 (1.9) [Matchbook]
New York Yankees Game +115 (1.2) [Matchbook]
Arizona Diamondbacks 1st 5 Innings +118 (2) [5Dimes]

Monday Results

MLB
1-1-1 (+0.89 units; ROI: 18.16%)

NBA
3Q
1-0-0 (+1.82 units; ROI: 91%)

Monday NBA PLays

Memphis Grizzlies 3rd Quarter +2½ -110 (2) [5Dimes]

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Monday MLB Plays

SFN for Game +167 (1.3) [Matchbook]
OAK for Game +137 (1.6) [Matchbook]

Washington Nationals 1st 5 Innings +112 (2) [Matchbook]

Sunday Results

MLB
3-1-0 (+2.84 units; ROI: 41.76%)

NBA
1Q
1-1-0 (-1.07 units; ROI: -30.5%)
f my life

2Q
0-1-0 (-1 units; ROI: -100%)

Record Update

MLB
Saturday Results
3-5-0 (-3.71 units; ROI: -30.4%)

Week Results
14-14-1 (+0.11 units; ROI: 0.222%)

Man Washington killed me this week...

NBA
1Q
Week Results
3-5-1 (-2.5 units; ROI: -13.0%)

YTD Results
97-92-5 (+3.02 units; ROI: 0.794%)

2Q
Week Results
1-1-1 (-0.14 units; ROI: -3.5%)

YTD Results
49-34-1 (+15.57 units; ROI: 23.77%)

3Q
Week Results
1-0-0 (+1.82 units; ROI: 91%)

YTD Results
17-5-0 (+13.25 units; ROI: 41.8%)

Sunday NBA Plays

Miami Heat 2nd Quarter -1½ -110 [5Dimes]
Philadelphia (1st 6 min) 1st Quarter pk -115 (2.2) [5Dimes]
Cleveland (1st 6 min) 1st Quarter -1 -115 (1.3) [5Dimes]

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Sunday MLB Plays

Washington Nationals +177 for Game (1.8) [BetJM]
Philadelphia Phillies +125 for Game (1.9) [BetJM]
Tampa Bay Rays -138 for Game (1.7) [BetJM]
Chicago White Sox -136 for Game (1.4) [BetJM]

Friday, April 10, 2009

Friday Results

MLB
2-3-0 (-2.87 units; ROI: -35%)

NBA
1Q
1-1-0 (+0.99 units; ROI: 28.28%)

2Q
1-1-0 (-0.14 units; ROI: -4.66%)

Saturday MLB Plays

Washington Nationals +155 for Game (1.4) [BetJM]
Philadelphia Phillies -113 for Game (1.5) [BetJM]

Added Plays
HOU 1st 5 Innings +110 (1.1) [BetJM]
MIL Game +125 (1.3) [SIA]
CLE Game +121 (1.4) [Matchbook]
SEA 1st 5 Innings -115 (2.8) [BetJM]
CHW Game +113 (1.7) [Matchbook]
PHI Game +104 (1.0) [Matchbook]

PHI line moved a bunch against me. Add an additional unit.

Friday NBA Plays

Memphis Grizzlies 2nd Quarter +½ -110 (1.5) [5Dimes]
Miami Heat 2nd Quarter +1½ -105 (1.5) [5Dimes]

Portland Trailblazers 1st Quarter -½ -105 (2.3)
San Antonio Spurs 1st Quarter -½ -110 (3.1)
New Orleans Hornets 1st Quarter +2 -110 (1.3)
Philadelphia 76ers 1st Quarter +2 -110 (2.2)

Thursday, April 9, 2009

Friday MLB Plays

Philadelphia Phillies for Game -131 (2.3) [5Dimes]

Added Plays
Chicago Cubs -137 for 1st 5 Innings (2.4) [BetJM]
Houston Astros +127 for 1st 5 Innings [BetJM]
Seattle Mariners +130 for 1st 5 Innings (1.3) [BetJM]
Los Angeles Angels -105 for 1st 5 Innings (1.2) [SIA]

Thursday Results

MLB
3-0-1 (+4.42 units; ROI: 71.29%)

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Wednesday Results

MLB
3-5-0 (-0.99 units; ROI: -6.03%)

NBA
1Q
1-1-0 (+0.99 units; ROI: 28.28%)

2Q
0-0-1 (0 units; ROI: 0%)

3Q
1-0-0 (+1.82 units; ROI: 91%)

NBA Projections

For those of you interested, my friends and I are slowly developing www.apbrmetrics.com.
I posted projections for end of the season records today. There are only a few games left, but whatever.

Check it out if you like: Projections

Thursday MLB Plays

Toronto Blue Jays -113 for Game (1.7) [BetJM]
Seattle Mariners +120 for Game (1.5) [BetJM]
New York Yankees -161 for Game (1.8) [BetJM]
Los Angeles Angels -119 for Game (1.2) [BetJM]

Wednesday NBA Plays

Memphis Grizzlies 2nd Quarter +4 -110 [5Dimes]

Portland Trailblazers 3rd Quarter +½ -110 (2) [5Dimes]

New York Knicks 1st Quarter +1 +105 (1.2) [5Dimes]
New Jersey Nets 1st Quarter +3 -105 (2.3) [5Dimes]

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Wednesday MLB Plays

WAS +133 for Game (2.7) [5Dimes]
ATL +102 for Game (1.4) [5Dimes]
ARI -132 for Game (1.0) [5Dimes]
CIN +103 for Game (1.7) [5Dimes]
LAD -168 for Game (2.1) [5Dimes]
BAL +165 for Game (2.6) [5Dimes]

The daily fading of Wang begins.

5in plays to come...

Added Plays
OAK -110 for 1st 5 Innings (2.7) [SIA]
Tampa Bay Rays +135 for 1st 5 Innings (2.2) [BetJM]

Tuesday Results

MLB
3-1-0 (+3.26 units; ROI: 50.93%)

NBA
1Q
0-2-1 (-5.00 units)

I highly recommend Post Notification for those of you tailing. It will send you an email whenever I make a post. Check it out.

Tuesday NBA Plays

New York Knicks 1st Quarter +2 -105 (1.8) [5Dimes]
San Antonio Spurs 1st Quarter -1 -110 (2.5) [5Dimes]
Portland Trailblazers 1st Quarter -2 -110 (2.5) [5Dimes]

Monday, April 6, 2009

Tuesday MLB Plays

Washington Nationals +142 (1.5) [5Dimes]

More plays (including 5in plays tomorrow) unless someone can tell me somewhere besides Pinnacle that I can get overnight 5in MLB lines.

Added Plays
Toronto -107 (1.1) [Matchbook]
SEA -105 1st 5 Innings (2.4) [SIA]
ATL +103 1st 5 Innings (1.4) [BetJM]

Baseball Plays Slightly Delayed

Hey everyone,
Just an FYI, [BetJM] changed some of the feed information yesterday so it messed a small portion of my spreadsheet. I am working on fixing it. I am more or less done, but don't want to rush it out.

There should be plays posted tonight for tomorrow's games if all goes well.

Saturday, April 4, 2009

Record Update

1Q
Week Results
4-5-0 (-1.43 units; ROI: -9.34%)

YTD Results
94-87-4 (+5.52 units; ROI: 1.526%)

2Q
Week Results
2-1-0 (+1.23 units; ROI: 27.33%)

YTD Results
27-14-0 (+15.71 units; ROI: 25.54%)

3Q
YTD Resulrts
16-5-0 (+11.43 units; ROI: 38.5%)

Baseball starts tomorrow. No full game plays right now. Possible 5in plays.

Friday, April 3, 2009

Baseball 2009

An announcement for those of you who have been waiting:

Baseball 2009 plays will be free for everyone. Good luck and enjoy. I will begin posting as soon as the regular season starts.

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Wednesday Results

1Q
1-3-0 (-3.11 units; ROI: -41.4%)

2Q
1-0-0 (+1.82 units; ROI: 91%)

Wednesday Plays

Los Angeles Clippers 2nd Quarter +1 -110 (2) [5Dimes]

Houston Rockets 1st Quarter +½ -110 (1.5) [5Dimes]
Los Angeles Lakers 1st Quarter -2 -110 (2.4) [5Dimes]
Charlotte Bobcats 1st Quarter +3 -110 (2.3) [5Dimes]
Orlando Magic 1st Quarter -3 -110 (1.3) [5Dimes]

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Tuesday Results

1Q
3-1-0 (+2.88 units; ROI: 43.63%)

2Q
0-1-0 (-1.5 units; ROI: -100%)