Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Wednesday Plays

1Q NEW JERSEY +2-105 (1.7) [SportBet]/[5Dimes]
Toronto Raptors +½ -110 for 1st Quarter (1.7) [BetJM]
Denver Nuggets/Toronto Raptors 1st Quarter Under 52½ -105 [5Dimes]

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Sunday Monday and Tuesday Results

Sunday
1-0-0 (+1.64 units)

Monday
0-2-0 (-3.40 units)

Tuesday
2-1-0 (+2.03 units)
You have got to be kidding me Memphis. 11-31 4th quarter? Seriously?

Tuesday Plays

Milwaukee Bucks 1st Quarter +2½ -110 (1.7) [5Dimes]
Memphis Grizzlies +3 -105 for Game (1.5) [5Dimes]

Added Play
Los Angeles (C) 3.5 for Game -101 (2) [Matchbook]

Monday, December 29, 2008

Monday Plays

Denver Nuggets/Atlanta Hawks under 51½ -110 for 1st Quarter [BetJM]
Phoenix Suns -3 -110 for 1st Quarter (2.4) [BetJM]/[5Dimes]

Sunday, December 28, 2008

Sunday Plays

I will not be around to make plays on the early games, so here are the plays depending on the posted spread:

NYK +1.5 -110 1Q (1.8)
NYK +1.0 -110 1Q (1.5)

I should be around for the start of the CLE game, but if I'm not there will be a play if the line moves.
Plays of the CLE game:
CLE -3.0 -110 1Q (0 units)
CLE -2.5 -110 1Q (1.2)
CLE -2.0 -110 1 (1.5)

I don't anticipate a play of CLE.

That should be it.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

Record Update

Saturday Results
2-1-0 (+2.71 units)

Week Results (New System)
4-6-0 (-0.38 units; ROI: -2.28%)

Week Results (Old System)
0-3-0 (-4.50 units; ROI: -100.00%)

YTD (Old System)
38-47-2 (-5.27 units; ROI: -3.78%)

Saturday Plays

I may not be able to make plays when the lines come out, but I anticipate a play on CHA.

I predict a 1Q line on CHA of -.5 or -1.0.

If it is at
-.5 -110 (2.0 units)
-1 -110 (1.7 units)

Adjust accordingly if alternate lines come out. I will do my best to have computer access at some point when a line comes out and before a game, but I'm not too optimistic.

Official Plays
Charlotte Bobcats -½ -115 for 1st Quarter (2.4) [BetJM]/[5Dimes]
Detroit Pistons +1½ -105 for 1st Quarter (1.7) [BetJM]/[5Dimes]
Detroit Pistons/Milwaukee Bucks under 47 -105 for 1st Quarter [BetJM]

Thursday, December 25, 2008

Thursday Plays

Hornets1Q (NewOrleans) +1  (-105) [Sportsbook.com]/[SuperBook]/[5Dimes]

I'm going to wait and see if [5Dimes] posts any 6 minute lines for the later games.

Added Plays
Portland (1st 6 min) 1st Quarter -1 -105 (2.1) [5Dimes]
Boston (1st 6 min) 1st Quarter +½ -115 (2.1) [5Dimes]
Phoenix (1st 6 min) 1st Quarter -½ -120 (2.5) [5Dimes]

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Tuesday Results

Old System
0-3-0 (-4.50 units)

New System
0-2-0 (-2.60 units)
The UTA plays was my bad. Got the Okur news too late.

Player Props
0-2-0 (-2.00 units)

Now that's what I call getting thoroughly rocked. Worst day since football.

Monday Results

0-1-0 (-1.30 units)

Thank you Sergio Rodriguez for your back to back turnovers leading to layups.

Monday, December 22, 2008

Tuesday Plays

Old System
New Orleans Hornets -3 -110 for Game (1.5) [BetJM]
Memphis Grizzlies +12 -110 for Game (1.2) [BetJM]
Denver Nuggets +8 -110 for Game (1.8) [BetJM]

Player Props
J JOHNSON POINTS +1-115 vs. K. DURANT [SportBet]
Z ILGAUSKAS POINTS+REBOUNDS +6½ +120 vs Y. MING [SportBet]

New System
Minnesota Timberwolves/San Antonio Spurs 1st Quarter Under 47 -110 [5Dimes]
1Q UTAH +½-115 (1.6) [SportBet] or [5Dimes]

Monday Plays

New System is up and running!

Portland Trailblazers 1st Quarter +1 -110 (1.3) [BetJM] or [5Dimes]

Please DO NOT DO NOT DO NOT overbet your bankroll. These plays will have much higher variance, so remember to bet accordingly.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Record Update

Old System
Week Results
3-3-1 (+1.21 units; ROI: 14.07%)

YTD Results
38-44-2 (-0.77 units; ROI: -0.57%)

To make a long story short, the new system has been postponed because of a few stats pages that haven't been updated because of errors in play-by-play data. Updates are slowly coming in, but are currently not up to date. I will give the data until January 1st, 2009 and if it is not updated by then, I will return everyone's money. Sorry about that.
I will continue to post old system plays, but will be very selective about the ones I choose to post.
I believe that it will be updated prior to then. Maybe a nice Christmas present for us all.

UPDATE: The site has just been updated to a reasonable date. I will begin posting picks tomorrow from the new system if there are plays.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Wednesday Plays

Still old system plays.

Washington + 10.5 -110 (1.5) [SIA]
Los Angeles Clippers +3 -102 (1.1) [5Dimes]
Cleveland -10.0 +101 (2.1) [Matchbook]
Over 228.5 (GS/IND) +101 [Matchbook]

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Tuesday Plays

Old system play
New York 13.5 -101 (1.8) [Bodog]

I think the new system will be up and running in the near future. You'll know when.

Monday, December 15, 2008

Plays for this week

Figures that the week I plan on posting these picks that a key site would be slow on the updating.
I pull stats from multiple websites and one important one has not updated in a week or so.
Because of the lack of updates, I will not make plays until this site has updated, or I'll have to compile my own stats.
If you have paid this week, I will move the week that you have paid for back 1 week. If the stats have not been updated in the next week or so, I will refund everyone's money. Sorry about that.

So, here are some plays from the old system
Washington Wizards -1 -105 for Game (1.1) [JustBet]/[Bet Guardian]
Boston -9.0 -104 (1.2) [Matchbook]

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Saturday Plays

Cleveland -4.0 +100 (1.1) [Matchbook]
Indiana 4.5 -104 (1.1) [Matchbook]
Charlotte + 2.0 -110 (1.4) [SIA]
Washington Wizards +5½ -105 (1.1) [5Dimes]

Friday, December 12, 2008

Sticky: Taking Picks Private

Hi Everyone,
After much thought and consideration, I will be taking my picks private. I have been hard at work (reason for lack of plays) on a new system which is about 50x better than the current NBA system (the one that led us to a 81 unit 07-08 season). I debated for a long time on whether or not to even release them, but I have decided to do so for a limited number of people.

The money will go towards the server costs as well as my time for creating this particular system. After a while I plan on switching it back to the charitable organization donations like last year.

Here's the deal.
$25 for 1 week (Sunday-Saturday)
$75 for 4 weeks (Sunday-Saturday)

Some things to note before subscribing:
Plays will have to be made very close to gametime (probably between 9am PST-gametime)
I will not make plays everyday
The variance with these plays will be much higher, but should be better overall in the long run.
Unlike last year, there will not be reimbursement for a -ROI week
With these plays, you must have certain books to find the lines, [5Dimes] at a bare minimum.
If there is little interest, I will stop making plays and return the prorated amount to subscribers.
I do not plan on prorating the week, so purchase prior to Sunday.


Also, to thank those who donated last year, I will be giving you the first week free. Check your email for the password.

Please feel free to email me at: mail@puresabermetrics.com with any questions.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Wednesday Results and Post Notification

0-1-0 (-1.10 units)

If you have subscribed to post notification, I had some issues with the plugin/website/everything, so I had to clear any personalized settings. So if you customized it in any way, you will want to change those settings.

Update: Post Notification customization is currently broken. I'm working on fixing it. You will still get all of the posts, but you will not be able to subscribe/unsubscribe. I should have it fixed by tonight...hopefully.

Monday, December 8, 2008

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Record Update

Saturday Results
4-1-0 (+6.27 units)

Week Results
7-3-0 (+9.83 units; ROI: 51.20%)

YTD Results
34-36-1 (+2.31 units; ROI: 1.94%)

Saturday Plays

Minnesota Timberwolves -1½ -105 (1.3) [5Dimes]
Denver Nuggets -5 -103 (1.8) [5Dimes]
Utah Jazz +7½ -102 (2.5) [5Dimes]
Washington 8.5 +100 (2.2) [Matchbook]

Added Play
New Jersey Nets +2½ -103 (1.2) [5Dimes]

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Friday Plays

Golden State +9.5 -105 (2) [Sportsbook.com]/[SuperBook]

Thursday Plays

DENVER -3½-110 (1.3) [SportBet]

Sorry for the lack of plays this week. I have been busy and want to make sure I stay up with all the injuries.
Also, I've been working on something new, which may (will) have a much higher edge for NBA, but will definitely be keeping it in house.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Sunday and Monday Results

Sunday
2-0-0 (+4.67 units)

Monday
1-0-0 (+2.19 units)
Anyone else want to die during that Golden State meltdown?