Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Moving

I am in the process of moving apartments, so I'm not sure when I'll have internet and all that jazz. I'll post results and plays when I get a connection.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Wednesday Plays

Colorado Rockies -130 for Game (1.7) [BetJM]
Baltimore Orioles +225 for Game (1.3) [BetJM]
Chicago White Sox -107 for Game (2.5) [BetJM]

Monday, July 28, 2008

Tuesday Plays

Amazingly there were no plays today (Monday) in MLB.

Plays for Tuesday
MLB
Colorado Rockies -119 for Game (2.7) [BetJM]
Baltimore Orioles +152 for Game (1.7) [BetJM]
Seattle Mariners +128 for Game (3.2) [BetJM]

Saturday, July 26, 2008

Record Update

WNBA
Week Results
2-2-0 (+1.77 units; ROI: 22.69%)

YTD Results
11-12-1 (-4.29 units; ROI: -11.69%)

MLB
Saturday Results
1-1-0 (-0.21 units)

Week Results
7-2-0 (+6.20 units; ROI: 51.24%)

YTD Results
173-188-17 (-5.85 units; ROI: -1.03%)

Investing
YTD Results
-7.36%

My Life
0-1-0 (-2.0 hours)

Today I watched 10,000 B.C.on DVD. That was one of the worst movies I've seen in a long time.

Saturday Plays

MLB
Milwaukee -164 (1.3) [Matchbook]
Washington/Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 7.5 +101 [Matchbook]

Friday Results

WNBA
1-1-0 (+1.15 units)

MLB
4-0-0 (+5.54 units)

Friday, July 25, 2008

Friday Plays

WNBA
Seattle Storm +4½ -105 for Game (1.9) [5Dimes]
Minnesota Lynx +3 -105 for Game (3.2) [5Dimes]

MLB
Atlanta +119 (1.9) [Matchbook]
Los Angeles (A) -123 (1.3) [Matchbook]
Cleveland -193 (1.0) [Matchbook]
New York (A) +131 (1.3) [Matchbook]

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Tuesday and Thursday Results

Tuesday MLB
1-1-0 (-0.79 units)

Tuesday WNBA
1-0-0 (+1.62 units)

Thursday WNBA
0-1-0 (-1.00 units)

I'm also sucking pretty bad on the stock plays. The American Express pick was definitely at a bad time.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Monday, July 21, 2008

Tuesday Plays

MLB
Arizona Diamondbacks -110 for Game [BetJM]
Minnesota Twins +126 for Game (1.7) [Matchbook]

WNBA
Seattle Storm +6½ -105 for Game (1.7) [5Dimes]

Monday Results

MLB
1-0-0 (+1.66 units)

WTF American Express?

Sunday, July 20, 2008

Webzen

Webzen (WZEN)
Webzen is a developer of MMORPG games primarily for the PC. Their claim to fame is a Diablo II ripoff called MU, but this thing brings in cash from around the world. They have a promising pipeline of games with Huxley in beta testing right now. Since I included the best stock in my portfolio, Chesapeake Energy, I figured I would include the worst, Webzen.

Competitive Advantage
Pipeline of games, current/future deals with The9, growing MMORPG market
Valuation
Korean based company, lower wages for employees

Main Competitors
Shanda Interactive (SNDA)
NETEASE.COM (NTES)
Electronic Arts Inc (ERTS)

Weaknesses
Management - Nothing good has come out of management thus far. Missed game release dates, inability to capitalize on game hype
Saturation/competition of the MMORPG market

Financials (Yahoo!)
The Key Statistics on Yahoo! are incorrect. Do not use them for analysis. I haven't calculated out everything recently, but I can tell you that they are not as bad as Yahoo! shows. Yahoo! did not take into account a 3/10 split that occurred a while back. I also don't know how often those stats are updated, if at all because it is an ADR.

Monday Plays

Milwaukee Brewers +104 for Game (1.6) [BetJM]

Saturday, July 19, 2008

Record Update

WNBA
Saturday Results
0-1-0 (-1.00 units)
Sorry, this one was my bad. I didn't realize that the WNBA wasn't a sport and sometimes plays OUTSIDE.

Week Results
1-3-0 (-2.86 units; ROI: -45.40%)

YTD Resuts
9-10-1 (-6.06 units; ROI: -20.97%)

MLB
Saturday Results
1-1-0 (+2.60 units)

Week Results
2-6-0 (-5.57 units; ROI: -39.79%)
No more betting Sundays...

YTD Results
166-186-17 (-12.05 units; ROI: -2.18%)

Here is a fun fact:
My record for the last 5 Sundays that I have made plays:
1-4-0 (-6.07 units)
1-6-0 (-5.77 units)
2-4-0 (-3.07 units)
1-5-0 (-8.13 units)
1-5-0 (-9.30 units)

For a total of -32.34 units

Now if I had removed Sundays from my chosen days to make plays, I would be well into the green. This is probably one of those "fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 5x for 32 units, shame on me." I can't seem to break the Sunday curse, so there will be no plays tomorrow. Maybe a stock one...

Here's something random that made me laugh...
This is straight from Gilbert Arenas' blog:
Richard Jefferson going to Milwaukee …. HAHAHA! Oh man, now that is funny. When I heard that, I started laughing. Oh man, did I start laughing. You know why? Because every player hates Milwaukee. Nobody wants to live in Milwaukee. I’m sorry, Milwaukee, to come down hard on you, but no one in the NBA wants to play in Milwaukee. From him going from New Jersey, actually from New York (because he lives in New York), from New York to Milwaukee is like going … let’s just say it’s not going to sit well with you. That was a funny one when I heard that one. I know Yi is happy though.

Saturday Plays

MLB
Seattle Mariners -101 for Game (1.2) [Matchbook]
Washington Nationals +200 for Game (1.9) [SuperBook]

WNBA
Indiana Fever/NY Liberty over 141 -102 for Game [5Dimes]

American Express

American Express (AXP)
American Express provides credit card services and other travel related services.

Competitive Advantage
More affluent customer base than competitors (hopefully less defaults/bankruptcy claims)
Valuation

Main Competitors
Discover Financial Services (DFS)
Mastercard Incorporated (MA)
Visa (V)
Citigroup Inc (C)

Weaknesses
Dependent on the weak American economy. Has a good amount of exposure to defaulting loans.

Financials (From Yahoo!)
Market Cap: 48.87B
P/E: 12.66
PEG: 1.13
EPS: 3.33
Cash: 33.64B
Debt: 74.53B
FCF: -568.25M
Div (Yield): 0.72 (1.70%)

Disclosure: I do not own shares in American Express.

Friday, July 18, 2008

Chesapeake Energy

For each stock I will do a quick writeup from my research. Hopefully this will allow you to gain some insight into what I find attractive about this company.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK)
This is by far the single best performing stock in my personal portfolio. In a nutshell, Chesapeake Energy is involved in the exploration and acquisition of natural gas in the United States.

Competitive Advantage
Management - Insider buying (Primarily Aubrey McClendon, other directors selling). As of July 31, 2008 he singlehandedly owns 33,452,911 shares.
One of the top "producers" of natural gas
Pays a dividend

Main Competitors
I'm not a real expert here on Chesapeake's competitors, but these are what I found on Yahoo!
Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC)
BP plc (BP)
ConocoPhillips (COP)

Weaknesses
Volatile natural gas prices
Debt load (12B)

Financials (From Yahoo!)
Market Cap: 29.36B
P/E: 29.88
PEG: 1.00
Price/Book: 2.68
EPS: 1.82
Cash: 1.00M
Debt: 12.25B
FCF: 5.45B
Div (Yield): 0.30 (0.50%)

Disclosure: I own shares in Chesapeake Energy.

Friday Results

Good day...NOT

MLB
0-1-0 (-2.10 units)

WNBA
1-2-0 (-1.86 units)

Starting up investing portfolio this weekend, stay tuned.

Friday Plays

WNBA
Seattle Storm +4 -110 for Game (1.8) [BetJM]
Sacramento Monarchs -9 -105 for Game (1.5) [5Dimes]
Connecticut Sun/Chicago Sky over 146½ +100 for Game (2) [5Dimes]

MLB
San Diego Padres +121 for Game (2.1) [5Dimes]

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

NFL Futures

These lines are pretty much all worse than opening, but it is the first chance I had to look at them. I've never done this before, so beware...

All from bodog:

2008 Regular Season Wins - St. Louis Rams
Under 6½ (EVEN) (2)

2008 Regular Season Wins - Pittsburgh Steelers
Under 9 (-115) (1.5)

2008 Regular Season Wins - Oakland Raiders
Under 6 (-115) (3)

2008 Regular Season Wins - Green Bay Packers
Over 8 (-140) (2)

2008 Regular Season Wins - Detroit Lions
Under 6½ (-105) (3)

2008 Regular Season Wins - Dallas Cowboys
Under 10½ (EVEN) (2) (2.5)

2008 Regular Season Wins - Cleveland Browns
Under 8 (-105) (2)

2008 Regular Season Wins - Baltimore Ravens
Over 6 (-125) (2)

2008 Regular Season Wins - Atlanta Falcons
Under 4½ (+110) (2)

Added Plays
Seattle wins NFC West -140 (3) [5Dimes]
Baltimore wins AFC North +750 (2) [5Dimes]

Monday, July 14, 2008

Investing Section is Now Open

Announcing the new investing section of Pure Sabermetrics.

I will start building a portfolio of stock picks to see how I can do vs. the current bear market

Rules for this portfolio:
A maximum value of $5,000 can be purchased of a single stock.
Each recommendation will start with a $1,000 investment in the stock. It can be recommended up to 5 times to reach $5,000.
Minimum holding time for a stock is 1 month.
No maximum holding time for a stock.
No technical analysis or any of that junk will be used to time purchases/sales of stock.

I will start off the portfolio in the next few days so I will have time to type up some quick analysis for each of the recommendations.

You will find I am a pretty big fan of commodities. I highly recommend Jim Rogers' book, Hot Commodities

Saturday, July 12, 2008

Saturday Results and Other Goodies

WNBA
2-0-0 (+1.99 units)

Only 1 play this week because I was gone, so I won't do the full record update.

Almost anytime anybody would make a comment on a post, it would hold the post for moderation. That was pretty annoying for both me and you. I believe now it should immediately post unless it detects potential spam.

Also, many of you are utilizing the Post Notification plugin I installed. If you are not, I think you should look into it. I put a lot of work into it and I would love it if it wasn't in vain. You can select which posts you would like to be notified of, for example only "Picks" or all posts and it will send you an email within 2 min of a post I make so you don't miss any plays, which is helpful especially if I make late plays. Also, you can discontinue use of the post notification at any time if you find it is not for you.

I know it is really early, but I am working on a Fantasy Basketball page for this website to help you all dominate your fantasy leagues. Also, I am working on an Investment (stocks) page that should launch this next week. Anything to make a buck I guess... I hope you will find these additions useful.

Sunday Plays

MLB
Houston Astros/Washington Nationals over 8½ -110 for Game [BetJM]
Washington Nationals -101 for Game (1.6) [BetJM]
Tampa Bay Rays -149 for Game (3.4) [BetJM]
Oakland Athletics -129 for Game (1.5) [BetJM]
Toronto Blue Jays +110 for Game (1.3) [SuperBook]

Saturday Plays

WNBA
Seattle Storm -3½ -110 for Game (1.0) [5Dimes]
Minnesota Lynx -3½ -102 for Game (1.1) [5Dimes]

Thursday, July 3, 2008

Record Update

MLB
Thursday Results
6-0-0 (+8.43 units)

Week Results
10-3-0 (+10.06 units; ROI: 50.30%)

YTD Results
164-180-17 (-6.48 units; ROI: -1.20%)

WNBA
Thursday Results
1-1-0 (-0.05 units)

Week Results
2-2-0 (-1.50 units; ROI: -26.79%)

YTD Results
6-7-1 (-5.19 units; ROI: -25.32%)

I will be without internet access for the next 8 or 9 days. See you then.

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Thursday Plays

MLB
Los Angeles Dodgers -121 for Game (2) [BetJM]
San Francisco Giants -127 for Game (1.1) [BetJM]
Philadelphia Phillies -111 for Game (1.3) [BetJM]
Detroit Tigers -130 for Game (1) [5Dimes]
Oakland Athletics +111 for Game (1.5) [5Dimes]
NY Mets +100 for Game (2.3) [SuperBook]

Added Plays
WNBA
NY Liberty/Seattle Storm over 144 -105 for Game [5Dimes]
Sacramento Monarchs/San Antonio Silver Stars over 144 -105 for Game [5Dimes]

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Tuesday Results

WNBA
1-1-0 (-1.45 units)
Freaking 16 point 3rd quarter? What a joke...

MLB
1-2-0 (-0.38 units)

Tuesday Plays

WNBA
Chicago Sky/Minnesota Lynx over 150 -110 for Game (2.5) [BetJM]
Phoenix Mercury -6½ -105 for Game (1.1) [5Dimes]

MLB
Seattle Mariners +119 for Game (1.7) [5Dimes]
Cleveland +122 (1.4) [Matchbook]

Added Play
MLB
Over 7.5 (CHC/SF) +105 [Matchbook]