Sunday, June 29, 2008

Monday Plays

MLB
Chicago White Sox -144 for Game (1.6) [5Dimes]
Texas Rangers +170 for Game (1.5) [5Dimes]
Washington Nationals/Florida Marlins over 9 -105 for Game [5Dimes]
Washington Nationals +126 for Game (2.6) [5Dimes]

Saturday, June 28, 2008

Record Update

Saturday Results
0-1-1 (-1.00 units)

Week Results
1-2-1 (-1.15 units; ROI: -37.10%)

YTD Results
4-5-1 (-3.69 units; ROI: -24.77%)

Saturday Plays

I haven't been getting many plays, either because the lines are pretty "sharp" or my kelly fraction is too small. I'm going to assume it is the second one. I upped my kelly fraction slightly and got 1 play.

Minnesota Lynx +4 -105 for Game [5Dimes]

Added Play
NY Liberty +4 -109 for Game (1.3) [5Dimes]

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Thursday Plays

Minnesota Lynx -5½ -110 for Game (1.1) [5Dimes]

Added Play
San Antonio Silver Stars/Houston Comets over 141 -105 for Game [5Dimes]

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

No Plays Today

Nothing looks too favorable today with my system. I may have to start making plays earlier (night before) before major line moves.

Sunday, June 22, 2008

NBA Finals Prop

Lakers Loss. Time to reload matchbook account...

No WNBA games tomorrow. I may post some MLB plays tonight.

Friday, June 13, 2008

Friday Results and Next Week

MLB Results
1-1-0 (-0.20 units)

WNBA Results
2-1-0 (+1.10 units)
Poor bet sizing again.

I will not have internet access for the next week. Be back on Monday the 23rd.

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Friday Plays

MLB
Texas Rangers +138 for Game (1.6) [BetJM]
Washington Nationals +127 for Game (1.1) [BetJM]

WNBA Plays tomorrow, if any

I have made some modifications to my baseball system. It now incorporates current year statistics to develop pitching power ratings. Hopefully this will help.

WNBA
Connecticut Sun +5½ -108 for Game (1.5) [5Dimes]
Chicago Sky -6 -108 for Game (2) [5Dimes]
Indiana Fever -7½ -105 for Game (1.8) [5Dimes]

Wednesday Results

1-2-0 (-3.64 units)

That's bad bet sizing...

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Wednesday Plays

WNBA
Detroit Shock +5 -110 for Game (1.8) [5Dimes]
Indiana Fever +2½ -110 for Game (3.2) [5Dimes]
Sacramento Monarchs +3½ -110 for Game (1.5) [5Dimes]

I recommend very low unit sizes if you are going to tail these picks. Remember that the (units) are RISK not to win.

Added Play
New York Liberty -7 -110 for Game (3.9) [BetJM]

My bad. Do not take the NY Liberty play. I made a calculation error that I just found.
I already made the play for myself, but I arbed out of about 3 units of it at [5Dimes] at +7.5 -105.

No Plays Today

Only 1 game, doesn't look good either way.

Monday, June 9, 2008

WNBA System Startup

I am pleased to announce that WNBA 1.0 will be unleashed tomorrow. It will be based on 100% statistics because my WNBA knowledge ends at the fact I know Candace Parker and Lisa Leslie play for the LA Sparks.

Hopefully we can repeat the success of the NBA system.

Thursday, June 5, 2008

NBA Play

NBA Finals Series Price
LA Lakers -170 [Matchbook]

Assign some arbitrary unit size to it.

Monday, June 2, 2008

Record Update

Friday Results
2-3-0 (-3.76 units)

Week Results
12-23-0 (-13.63 units; ROI: -23.06%)

YTD Results
153-176-17 (-16.34 units; ROI: -3.16%)

Sorry guys for no update in the last few days. I have been really busy and super frustrated since I've been beating the closing lines by a lot and ending up down a lot of units. There is no way my expected ROI is -3.16%, especially the week results of -23% ROI. I know a lot is "variance" but this has kept up the entire season. I think I will wait until the next PECOTA update until I start posting anything.

On a different note, I finished my WNBA system so that will start up in about a week. I am waiting for more data to come in for this season (somewhere between 8-10 games for all teams).