Monday, March 31, 2008

Tuesday Plays

Texas Rangers +183 for Game (1.1) [5Dimes]
Minnesota Twins +125 for Game (1.7) [5Dimes]
Florida Marlins +186 for Game (1) [5Dimes]
Toronto Blue Jays +153 for Game (1.5) [BetJM]

I like the TOR 5in line better if you can get it near +145. Also like the TEX 5in line better if you can get it near +170.
I will not be around for the 5in lines tomorrow, so I just took the full game ones.

Monday Results

1-3-1 (-4.30 units)

Got rocked today. I guess I should have made them full game plays.

Monday Plays

San Francisco Giants +175 for 1st 5 Innings (2) [BetJM]
Pittsburgh Pirates +132 for 1st 5 Innings (2.7) [5Dimes]
Kansas City Royals +181 for 1st 5 Innings (1.7) [BetJM]
Toronto Blue Jays +147 for 1st 5 Innings (1.7) [BetJM]
Texas Rangers +175 for 1st 5 Innings (1.2) [BetJM]

Sunday, March 30, 2008

Sunday Results

1-0-0 (+1.68 units)

Good start to the season thus far.

I saw the movie "21" tonight. Not bad if you haven't read the book, Bringing Down The House. I highly recommend the book.

Sunday Play

Nationals(Washington) +153 (1.1) [SuperBook]

Friday, March 28, 2008

Updates to ESPN and BP

Some updates to the ESPN and Baseball Prospectus websites screwed up a lot of the data I was downloading into my excel spreadsheet, so it will take me a few hours to correct it. I'll try and find some time this weekend before the games start on Monday.
I guess this is what happens when you do things on time...

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Wednesday Results

1-0-0 (+2.50 units)

No listed pitchers for tomorrows games as of now. If they are not posted by BetJM soon, I will not have any plays.

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Wednesday Play

Oakland Athletics +100 for 1st 5 Innings (2.5) [BetJM]

I got internet access at a library so I have 1 play for tomorrow. As of now, no other pitchers have been listed yet, so I have no more plays.

For future reference, on all favorites I will be list my risk amount, not my to win amount.

Tuesday Results and BetJM

I am totally stoked. BetJM is now offering overnight 5-inning lines. Finally. You should check them out if you do not have an account there.

Tuesday Results
0-1-0 (-1.50 units)

Monday, March 24, 2008

Tuesday Play

MLB
OAK +147 (1.5) [SuperBook]
You should be able to get a better line than this (probably at matchbook?). Don't settle for anything less.

I am very limited in my play posting ability. I'm running on something worse than 56k internet (I can't even access matchbook), so I'm not sure how many plays I'll get up this week. I'll be at full strength on Saturday.

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Curtis Granderson Prop

This line is so bad that it deserves it's own post:

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Curtis Granderson - How many Triples will Curtis Granderson have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(621/622) Under 20 (-115) Mar 31/08@10:09a

It quotes a max of $300, but it looks like all of the props max is actually $100. In any case, I recommend you max this sucker.

Update (4/3): 7 of these props have been no-actioned because of players starting on the DL

Update (7/12): 3 more have been no-actioned, apparently all the Paul Konerko and Ben Broussard props.

Update (9/1): 11 more have been no-actioned.

Update (9/17): 4 Wins, 5 Losses (units TBD)

MLB Player Props

So I am completely out of funds at Bodog now. Here are a ton of props I like. Just take the ones you like. Pretty much, find every overrated/overhyped player you can find (think BOS/NYY) and hit the under.

I added some weight to some of the plays (11:20pm PST)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Chone Figgins - How many Steals will Chone Figgins have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(884/885) Under 53½ (-115) Mar 31/08@5:13p (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Garret Anderson - How many RBI’s will Garret Anderson have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(876/877) Under 90½ (-115) Mar 31/08@5:13p (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Gary Matthews Jr. - How many RBI’s will Gary Matthews Jr. have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(870/871) Under 91½ (-115) Mar 31/08@5:13p (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Vladimir Guerrero - How many RBI’s will Vladimir Guerrero have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(862/863) Under 120½ (-115) Mar 31/08@5:13p (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Vladimir Guerrero - How many HR’s will Vladimir Guerrero have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(860/861) Under 32½ (-115) Mar 31/08@5:13p (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Torri Hunter - How many HR’s will Torri Hunter have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(850/851) Under 29 (-115) Mar 31/08@5:13p (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Michael Young - How many RBI’s will Michael Young have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(1064/1065) Under 97½ (-115) Mar 31/08@3:43p (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Ben Broussard - How many RBI’s will Ben Broussard have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(1047/1048) Under 63½ (-115) Mar 31/08@3:43p (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Brad Wilkerson - How many RBI’s will Brad Wilkerson have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(958/959) Under 73½ (-115) Mar 31/08@3:41p (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Brad Wilkerson - How many HR’s will Brad Wilkerson have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(956/957) Under 23½ (-115) Mar 31/08@3:41p (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Ichiro Suzuki - How many Stolen Bases will Ichiro Suzuki have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(928/929) Under 44½ (-115) Mar 31/08@3:41p (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Ichiro Suzuki - How many RBI's will Ichiro Suzuki have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(922/923) Under 70½ (-115) Mar 31/08@3:41p (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Ichiro Suzuki - How many HR's will Ichiro Suzuki have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(920/921) Under 8 (-115) Mar 31/08@3:41p (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Orlando Cabrera - How many RBI’s will Orlando Cabrera have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(751/752) Under 74½ (-115) Mar 31/08@12:11p (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Paul Konerko - How many RBI’s will Paul Konerko have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(733/734) Under 103½ (-115) Mar 31/08@12:11p (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Grady Sizemore - How many Stolen Bases will Grady Sizemore have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(529/530) Under 32½ (EVEN) Mar 31/08@12:09p (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Grady Sizemore - How many RBI’s will Grady Sizemore have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(525/526) Over 77 (-115) Mar 31/08@12:09p (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Cliff Floyd - How many RBI’s will Cliff Floyd have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(503/504) Under 75½ (-115) Mar 31/08@12:07p (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Cliff Floyd - How many HR’s will Cliff Floyd have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(501/502) Under 18½ (-115) Mar 31/08@12:07p (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
B.J. Upton - How many RBI’s will B.J. Upton have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(491/492) Under 95½ (-115) Mar 31/08@12:07p (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Carl Crawford - How many Stolen Bases will Carl Crawford have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(479/480) Under 56 (-115) Mar 31/08@12:07p (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Ivan Rodriguez - How many RBI’s will Ivan Rodriguez have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(649/650) Under 68½ (-115) Mar 31/08@10:09a (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Edgar Renteria - How many RBI’s will Edgar Renteria have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(643/644) Under 81½ (-115) Mar 31/08@10:09a (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Edgar Renteria - How many HR’s will Edgar Renteria have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(641/642) Under 14½ (-110) Mar 31/08@10:09a (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Gary Sheffield - How many HR’s will Gary Sheffield have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(625/626) Under 29 (-115) Mar 31/08@10:09a (2)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Magglio Ordonez - How many RBI’s will Magglio Ordonez have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(607/608) Under 127½ (-115) Mar 31/08@10:09a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Lyle Overbay - How many HR’s will Lyle Overbay have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(400/401) Under 22½ (-115) Mar 31/08@10:07a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Scott Rolen - How many RBI’s will Scott Rolen have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(390/391) Under 96½ (-115) Mar 31/08@10:07a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Scott Rolen - How many HR’s will Scott Rolen have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(388/389) Under 24½ (-115) Mar 31/08@10:07a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Vernon Wells - How many RBI’s will Vernon Wells have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(384/385) Under 106½ (-115) Mar 31/08@10:07a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Frank Thomas - How many RBI’s will Frank Thomas have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(372/373) Under 102½ (-115) Mar 31/08@10:07a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Frank Thomas - How many HR’s will Frank Thomas have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(370/371) Under 31½ (-115) Mar 31/08@10:07a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Bobby Abreu - How many Stolen Bases will Bobby Abreu have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(310/311) Under 28½ (-115) Mar 31/08@10:05a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Bobby Abreu - How many RBI’s will Bobby Abreu have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(308/309) Under 103½ (-115) Mar 31/08@10:05a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Hideki Matsui - How many RBI’s will Hideki Matsui have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(302/303) Under 106½ (-115) Mar 31/08@10:05a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Derek Jeter - How many Stolen Bases will Derek Jeter have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(290/291) Under 21½ (-115) Mar 31/08@10:05a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Alex Rodriguez - How many HR’s will Alex Rodriguez have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(274/275) Under 45½ (-115) Mar 31/08@10:05a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Huston Street - How many Saves will Huston Street have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(1030/1031) Over 30½ (-110) Tue@3:07a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Moneyline (Prop)
Kurt Suzuki - What will Kurt Suzuki’s Batting Average be in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(1015) Under 0.265 -115 Tue@3:07a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Kurt Suzuki - How many RBI’s will Kurt Suzuki have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(1012/1013) Under 81½ (-115) Tue@3:07a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Kurt Suzuki - How many HR’s will Kurt Suzuki have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(1010/1011) Under 15½ (-115) Tue@3:07a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Emil Brown - How many RBI’s will Emil Brown have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(1006/1007) Under 76½ (-115) Tue@3:07a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Jack Cust - How many RBI’s will Jack Cust have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(994/995) Under 89½ (-115) Tue@3:07a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Moneyline (Prop)
Eric Chavez - What will Eric Chavez’s Batting Average be in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(991) Under 0.268 -115 Tue@3:07a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Eric Chavez - How many RBI’s will Eric Chavez have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(988/989) Under 74½ (-115) Tue@3:07a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Eric Chavez - How many HR’s will Eric Chavez have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(986/987) Under 22½ (-115) Tue@3:07a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Moneyline (Prop)
Who will have more wins for the Boston Red Sox during the 2008 Season?
(Player must be on the active roster at the start of the 2008 season for wager to have action. If either player is traded during the 2008 season, all wagers will be settled as No Action. Singles Only. No Parlays. Max $300)
(269) Clay Buchholz (BOS) +215 Tue@3:05a (.5)

Baseball - MLB Player Props Moneyline (Prop)
Jonathon Papelbon - What will Jonathon Papelbon’s ERA be in the 08 season?
Must start the season on the active roster and have a minimum of 25 starts, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(264) Over 1.62 -120 Tue@3:05a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Dustin Pedroia - How many RBI’s will Dustin Pedroia have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(244/245) Over 59½ (-115) Tue@3:05a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Jason Varitek - How many HR’s will Jason Varitek have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 130 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(236/237) Under 17 (-115) Tue@3:05a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
J.D. Drew - How many RBI’s will J.D. Drew have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(226/227) Under 78½ (-115) Tue@3:05a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
J.D. Drew - How many HR’s will J.D. Drew have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(224/225) Under 15½ (-115) Tue@3:05a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Mike Lowell - How many RBI’s will Mike Lowell have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(214/215) Under 99½ (-115) Tue@3:05a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Mike Lowell - How many HR’s will Mike Lowell have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(212/213) Under 19½ (-115) Tue@3:05a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Moneyline (Prop)
Manny Ramirez - What will Manny Ramirez’s Batting Average be in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(211) Under 0.310 -115 Tue@3:05a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Manny Ramirez - How many RBI’s will Manny Ramirez have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(208/209) Under 107½ (-115) Tue@3:05a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
Manny Ramirez - How many HR’s will Manny Ramirez have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(206/207) Under 28 (-105) Tue@3:05a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
David Ortiz - How many RBI’s will David Ortiz have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(202/203) Under 130½ (-115) Tue@3:05a

Baseball - MLB Player Props Total (Prop)
David Ortiz - How many HR’s will David Ortiz have in the 08 Season?
Must start the season on the active roster and play a minimum of 140 regular season games, if player starts on the DL all wagers will be settled as No Action. If player switches leagues stats will be combined. Max $300
(200/201) Under 41½ (-125) Tue@3:05a

Friday, March 14, 2008

Friday Results

3-0-0 (+4.08 units)

UCI Basketball trainer came through this time =)

Friday Plays

These are purely for entertainment value. I'm an LA/OC guy, so this will mostly give me something to root for tonight.

UCLA -400 for Game (2)
Cal Irvine +3½ -101 for Game (2)
Cal Irvine +160 for Game

Here's the thought process for Irvine. Non-system play. Rated as a road game for them, but it is being played in Anahiem, 20 min from Irvine vs 2+ hours from Santa Barbra. UCI is 2-0 against Santa Barbra and UCI is 9-1 at home, they suck on the road.

However, UCSB is the #1 seed in this tourney, but there isn't a real clear cut favorite in this league, mostly filled with average players (no star power anywhere).

Whatever, I'll probably lose these because thats what happens to me.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Why We Will Have a Good Year in Baseball

Chicago Tribune

I sure hope more judge a team the same way as Rick Morrissey breaks down the White Sox. I mean this article just made me laugh.

An excerpt (used without permission):
But ...

Do feelings count? Or hunches? Where is there room in computers for the inexplicable? Does the fact that it's the Cubs' 100th season since their last World Series title mean anything in the computations? Does it mean anything that the Cubs could be driven by the challenge of a century of dryness or, conversely, that they could cave in under the pressure of it and finish 10 games below .500?

I believe the Sox are embarrassed by what happened last season and, not to belabor the point, there is nothing in a computer's innards that can measure the effects of that. But it is one of the great motivators in the human makeup.

You have got to be kidding me. So you are arguing that team sucking in 2006=team doing well in 2007? Maybe this translates to other sports. Let's see... New York Knicks 2006 (sucked and consistently embarrassed) ---> fast forward to 2007 ---> Nope. They still suck.
Oh, right, it only works for baseball.

Moving on...
Baseball Prospectus was dead on last season, when it predicted the Sox, whom it saw as aging quickly, would win only 72 games. That's exactly what happened.

That the Sox dropped from 90 victories in 2006 to 72 games last season was one of the shocks of the baseball season. But not to Baseball Prospectus, and the people who run it deserve their props. They chalk up a lot of what happened on the South Side last season to the inevitability of time catching up with older athletes. I chalk it up to a number of players having down years at the same time.

I chalk it up to a number of players having down years at the same time.
Yes, that is much more likely.

Sunday, March 9, 2008

Saturday, March 8, 2008

Record Update

Experimental (now shut down) NBA ML System
2-14-0 (-16.29 units; ROI: -54.30%)

Experimental NCAAB ML System
Saturday Results
9-3-0 (-0.67 units)

Week Results
60-26-0 (+0.02 units; ROI: 0.01%)

Saturday Plays

The experimental NBA system didn't seem like it was working out so I am going to stop tracking those plays. The NCAA system looks better so I'll continue with that. I made a major change to it last night so hopefully that will make it better.

Montana -150 for Game (1.5)
Illinois State -200 for Game (2.5)
Drake -153 for Game
George Mason -270 for Game (3)
Old Dominion -355 for Game (4)
Cal Riverside -250 for Game (2.5)
BYU -290 for Game
Cornell -330 for Game (2)
Brown -450 for Game (1.5)
Arizona State -475 for Game
UNLV -300 for Game (2.5)
RICE -125 for Game (1.5)

Friday, March 7, 2008

Friday Results

NBA
0-3-0 (-7.00 units)

NCAA
12-4-0 (+1.21 units)
Yeah, no more stupid stupid stupid 10 unit plays. I will cap the max unit risk size to 5 units.

Friday Plays

NBA (Soon to be discontinued if there isn't an up day this week) New System
SEA +650 (2)
CHI +740 (2.5)
LAC +1600 (2.5)

NCAA Favorites ML
Murray State -143 for Game (1.5)
Austin Peay -335 for Game (2.5)
Iona -400 for Game (6.5)
Elon -210 for Game (5.5)
Wofford -135 for Game (1.5)
Illinois Chicago -180 for Game (4.5)
Wright State -120 for Game (1.5)
Southern Illinois -250 for Game (10)
Illinois State -130 for Game (2)
Creighton -125 for Game
Northeastern -165 for Game (3)
William & Mary -158 for Game (5)
Cornell -255 for Game (3)
Princeton -130 for Game (2.5)
Yale -142 for Game (2)
Brown -210 for Game (4)

Thursday, March 6, 2008

Thursday Results

NBA Results
0-1-0 (-1.50 units)
I have a feeling that this system will be mostly down days, hopefully with a few huge up days.

NCAAB Results
6-9-0 (-15.53 units)
I guess the new "college favorites" system needed a beat down.

I even had the "inside scoop" on the UCI/UCD play from the UCI trainer who said there's no way that UCI would cover. Which was true except UCD missed an uncontested garbage layup with 2 seconds left. Oh, well.

Anyone watch the UCLA game? Great game. I pretty much wrote off those 8.5 units also...

Thursday Plays

NBA
Indiana +1000 (1.5)

NCAAB
Michigan State -138 for Game (3.5)
Indiana State -118 for Game (1.5)
UCLA -380 for Game (8.5)
CS Northridge -150 for Game (2.5)
USC -380 for Game (3)
Boise State -185 for Game (2)
Oregon -240 for Game (3.5)
Xavier -125 for Game (2)
Hawaii -205 for Game (3.5)
Cincinnati -240 for Game (3.5)
NC Charlotte -420 for Game (7)
Connecticut -205 for Game (2.5)
Clemson -150 for Game (2)

Non-System Plays
UC Davis +15.5 -101 (5) [Matchbook]
UC Davis +1200 (2.5) [5Dimes]

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Wednesday Results

NBA
0-4-0 (-6.50 units)
This new NBA system might not be working out as planned...

NCAAB
14-5-0 (+6.81 units)
So far so good. I'm still not sure what I want to do about my unit size though. I'm not down with risking 7 units on a -400 favorite.

Wednesday Plays

NBA
New Jersey -134 (1.5)
Seattle +470 (1.5)
Indiana +510
Minnesota +1600 (2.5)

NCAA
Duke -300 (1)
Indiana U -450 (5)
S. Carolina -155 (1.5)
Richmond -160 (3.5)
Temple -225 (1.5)
Dayton -310 (6)
Vanderbilt -170 (3.5)
Houston U -340 (4)
LSU -150 (1.5)
UAB -380 (5)
Oklahoma State -225 (4.5)
Auburn -155 (2.5)
Tulane -155 (3)
Rice -130 (2.5)
Air Force -265 (7)
Tennessee -157 (1)
Pacific -285 (6)
New Orleans U -415 (9.5)
Mid Ten St -450 (6)

So the strategy for NCAAB is to find every favorite and put some random # of units on it.

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Tuesday Results

NBA Results
0-3-0 (-5.50 units)

NCAAB Results
10-3-0 (+4.94 units)

Surprisingly, the NCAA plays seem to be doing better. Not sure why, however.

Tuesday Plays

NBA
Toronto (+9.5) +450 (2)
Seattle (+15.5) +1700 (1.5)
Memphis (+10.5) +630 (2)

I would like to post the spreads that each of these are based off of, but I really don't want to have to do all that typing. Besides, you shouldn't be putting any money on these anyways (I'm not).
NCAAB
Ohio -180 (4.5)
Kent St -255 (7)
Toledo -155 (3.5)
Virginia Tech -250 (3.5)
Buffalo -145 (2)
W. Michigan -150 (3)
N. Mexico -265 (5)
Mississippi -135 (1)
Valparaiso -310 (5)
Wisc Milwaukee -200 (5)
Tennessee Martin -210 (4)
Murray State -255 (3.5)
Ohio State -140 (3)

You may notice that every single one of the NCAAB plays is a favorite. I have no idea why that is the case as opposed to NBA where almost every play is a dog. We'll see how this plays out.

Monday, March 3, 2008

Monday Results

8-1-0 (+6.26 units)
Barring a complete Gonzaga meltdown.

From now on I will not include any plays on huge favorites (ML -500). The risk/reward simply isn't worth it.

Monday Plays

Just watch. Don't touch these.

I will track NCAA and NBA separately. NCAA seems to like favorites a lot.
W. Virginia -260 (5)
Kansas -3750 (3)
Utah State -450 (3.5)
SF -175 (2.5)
SD -4000 (13 wow)
Gonzaga -1350 (10)
NC Greensboro -1300 (7)
Georgia Tech -210

Added Play
Weber State -6.0 -275 (4)

Sunday, March 2, 2008

Sunday Results

2-2-0 (-3.69 units)

Maybe I should take CBB out of the system...

Sunday Plays

Atlanta +760 (1.5)
San Antonio -185 (1.5)

Sidelines my friends, sidelines.

Added NCAA Plays
St. Josephs -275 (4)
Oregon -600 (6)
Interesting how it finds more/larger plays on NCAA. For all favorites, I will not use risk 36.00 units to win 6 units, rather 6 unit to win 1 unit.

Saturday, March 1, 2008

Record Update

Saturday Results
2-2-0 (+1.76 units)

Week Results
11-16-0 (+2.37 units; ROI: 7.28%)

YTD Results
240-216-5 (+80.54 units; ROI: 10.06%)

New System Results
1-2-0 (+4.90 units)
Good start eh?

Shutting it Down

It has been a pleasure speaking to many of you through emails.
Starting tomorrow, I will no longer post plays from my system. I was hoping that I was just going through a long variance swing, but it appears that that may not be the case.
Prior to January 1st, this was my record:
109-82-3 (+72.38 units; ROI: 20.07%)
From January 1st on, this is my record (not including today):
129-132-2 (+6.40 units; ROI: 1.48%)
These combined leave me with a overall record for the NBA of:
238-214-5 (+78.78 units; ROI: 9.92%)

I will take a 10% ROI any day, but it appears that my system has lost the edge it had at the beginning of the season. I believe this is the case because the stats do not tell you as much as they did at the beginning of the season. For example, how do you quantify how good the Sacramento Kings are? They missed Martin for a long portion of the season, missed Artest for a moderate portion, missed Bibby for the first half, then had him for a few games and then traded him, and now their team is very different than opening day. That was probably a run on sentence.

If you are completely addicted to this stuff, don't worry. First you may want to seek help and if you find a good shrink let me know, but more importantly, I developed a new system based on what I believe to be sharp lines and money line inefficiencies. I will be posting these plays on most days. Let's see how this one goes.

For example the plays for today are:
NY +820 (2.5)
MEM +470 (2)
PHI +470 (2)
I have no idea if this is even going to work or be profitable, but it'll be a nice experiment I suppose.

Check back for baseball, I am very excited about this season.

Saturday Plays

Los Angeles Clippers +8½ -103 for Game (3) [5Dimes]
Los Angeles (C) +390 (.5) [Matchbook]
Philadelphia +470 (.5) [Matchbook]
Philadelphia 9.5 +100 (3) [Matchbook]