Friday, February 29, 2008

Futures and Fools on Matchbook

Here are some futures plays I made on Matchbook. I do not understand who would fill the other side of these baseball plays. If you are the moron who takes Baltimore -30000 to not win the WS, my advice to you is to walk over to your local bank, open up a 6 month CD and get your guaranteed 4% ROI because that is better than what you are getting on these plays.
Since I'm a numbers guy, here is the rundown: risk 3000 to win 10 in 8 months from now. Why tie up funds so long to win so little? What about that <1% chance that Florida actually makes the playoffs?

World Series 2008 Baltimore (to win) +30000
World Series 2008 Florida (to win) +30000
NBA Championship 2008 Winner Houston (to win) +4500
NBA Championship 2008 Winner Toronto (to win) +7500
On a different note, I really like the Houston and Toronto futures plays. I recommend taking a look at these. In the West, the only true favorite is the Lakers and maybe the Spurs, but they are starting to look old. Houston is legit even without Ming.
The East is so bad. So bad. Toronto will probably take the (edit) 4th spot in the East and face Detroit in the Conference semi's or whatever they're called. Will they get to the finals? Probably not, but who knows.
If either of these teams makes a run in the playoffs, hedging them will be very profitable.

Now let's move on to the most overrated and underrated teams:
Why isn't New Orleans getting any respect? 18-1 dogs across the board?
The Phoenix Suns. Now I'm a Suns fan. This team is headed for that #9 spot in the West (maybe that was a little harsh, but time will tell). Probably the most overrated team in the NBA.
The Utah Jazz. Why are they so freaking terrible on the road? No thoughts on them, but I don't get the home/road record discrepancy.
The Minnesota Timberwolves. Crazy underrated because they play in the West. If this was an Eastern Conference team, they'd be a .500 team. Yeah, I said it. Prove me wrong.

Friday Results and Super/Sportsbook.com

3-7-0 (-0.46 units)

So despite my previous semi-recommendation (they haven't screwed me yet) of SuperBook and SportsBook because of their tasty stale lines, it doesn't really matter if you don't get paid. I cashed out a portion of my funds there because I didn't feel safe having the funds in their hands and the check bounced. Wonderful. Let's see how they handle this.

Friday Plays

A whole bunch of fractional plays. This ROI will be fun to calculate.

Los Angeles (C) +1250 (.25) [Matchbook]
Los Angeles (C) 13.5 +103 (.75) [Matchbook]
Minnesota +530 (.5) [Matchbook]
Minnesota 10.0 +100 (2) [Matchbook]
New York +288 (.5) [Matchbook]
New York 6.5 +112 [Matchbook]
Philadelphia 5.0 -104 (1.5) [Matchbook]
Philadelphia 76ers +188 for Game (.5) [5Dimes]
Utah Jazz +168 for Game (.5) [5Dimes]
Utah Jazz +4½ -108 for Game (.5) [5Dimes]

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Thursday Results

1-2-0 (-0.85 units)

Wednesday Plays

Minnesota Timberwolves/Toronto Raptors under 199 -105 for Game [5Dimes]
Minnesota Timberwolves +12 -107 for Game (1.5) [5Dimes]
Minnesota +850 (.25) [Matchbook]

It sure looks like I'm a Minnesota fan, but they are underrated.
Not enough action on matchbook to get a half unit down, I may add some to the ML later today.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Tuesday Results

2-1-0 (+2.36 units)

Should have went 3-0, but UTA fouled through the entire last min despite being down by 10.

Tuesday Plays

Minnesota 7.0 -102 (2) [Matchbook]
Minnesota +282 (.5) [Matchbook]
Under 200.0 (UTA/MIN) -105 [Matchbook]

Monday, February 25, 2008

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Sunday Results

1-2-0 (-2.07 units)

MIN play was looking good at 74-74, then they fell apart. Figures.

Organization of the Week

This week's lucky organization is:
The International Justice Mission

Website: www.ijm.org
Background: I first heard about this organization on a Dateline NBC program titled, "Children for Sale". In the last four years IJM has been able to accomplish:
* More than 2,000 children, women and men have been freed from slavery.
* More than 800 women and children have been freed from forced prostitution.
* More than 300 individuals have been arrested for trafficking-related offenses.
* Hundreds of widows and orphans have had stolen property returned to them.
* Thousands have received their entitled documentation of citizenship or elevated legal status.

Brief Description:
International Justice Mission is a human rights agency that secures justice for victims of slavery, sexual exploitation and other forms of violent oppression. IJM lawyers, investigators and aftercare professionals work with local governments to ensure victim rescue, to prosecute perpetrators and to strengthen the community and civic factors that promote functioning public justice systems.

IJM's justice professionals work in their communities in 12 countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America to secure tangible and sustainable protection of national laws through local court systems.

You can do this one of two ways.
1. Go directly to the organization website and donate there. Forward me your confirmation email detailing the amount.
2. Pay for the subscription as usual, through paypal or google checkout, and I will pass all of the money to the organization.

IJM sends out "newsletters" aka spam, about once a month or so. If you would prefer not to receive these, I'm already on their spam list so you can donate via paypal to me and I'll forward the money on for you.

Sunday Plays

Dallas Mavericks/Minnesota Timberwolves under 191 -103 for Game (2) [5Dimes]
Minnesota Timberwolves +6½ -102 for Game (3.5) [5Dimes]
Minnesota Timberwolves +248 for Game (.5) [5Dimes]

Saturday, February 23, 2008

Record Update

Saturday Results
4-2-0 (+6.12 units)

Week Results
16-16-0 (+0.60 units; ROI: 1.31%)

YTD Results
229-200-5 (+78.17 units; ROI: 10.17%)

Sooooo... this week ended up. I will understand if you do not renew your subscription, but I encourage it because this week we are having a great organization. Sunday will be free for all because I do not have time to do all of that stuff now and I want to make sure you all get the plays.

The new site is up and I'm still having problems with the post notification. Unsubscribing is the only feature that isn't working, but I'm sure no one wants to unsubscribe ;-).

Keep the bug reports coming.

Site Transition Finished

It took me all morning, but it looks like everything is done, except post notification. Let me know if you see any bugs/problems.

Moving Servers

I am in the process of moving this site to a paid server. I finally decided to stop being so cheap and actually paid for some webspace. I'll post again when it is finished, but you will want to use www.puresabermetrics.com and not the .dyndns.org one in the future.

Saturday Plays

Washington -7.0 +101 (3) [Matchbook]
Philadelphia 2.0 +101 (3.5) [Matchbook]
Philadelphia +122 (.5) [Matchbook]
Atlanta +920 (.5) [Matchbook]
Atlanta Hawks +12½ -105 for Game (.5) [5Dimes]
Denver Nuggets -3 -105 for Game [5Dimes]

Friday Results

0-6-0 (-10.16 units)

Man I wouldn't have won these if I teased them 15 points.
There goes a whole weeks worth of work...make it up today?

Friday, February 22, 2008

Thursday Results

3-3-0 (+0.89 units)
I guess i should have let the SEA play ride.

Friday Plays

Philadelphia +278 (.5) [Matchbook]
Philadelphia 7.0 +100 (2.5) [Matchbook]
Toronto -6.0 +107 (2) [Matchbook]
Utah -5.0 -102 (2) [Matchbook]
Utah Jazz/Los Angeles Clippers under 200 -102 for Game [5Dimes]
Raptors(Toronto) -5.5 -105 (2) [Super]

Recently I've noticed that my site is running insanely slow, so I am looking for a host. I may have found a good free one, but we'll see if that works.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Baseball Futures

This is my first year doing futures, so I don't know what to expect. I do think that these have a decent edge on them.
All from Bodog. May be a long time to tie up money. If this is a problem or undesirable, just check out the top 3 plays: TB, SEA, and FLO.

2008 Regular Season Series - St Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers
(MLB.com for official results) Must play a minimum of 14 games between both teams for action. Singles Only. Max $300
(13016) Milwaukee Brewers -180
WIN

2008 Regular Season Series - Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets
(MLB.com for official results) Must play a minimum of 14 games between both teams for action. Singles Only. Max $300
(13012) New York Mets -170

2008 Regular Season Series - Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians
(MLB.com for official results) Must play a minimum of 14 games between both teams for action. Singles Only. Max $300
(13006) Cleveland Indians -160
LOSS

Baseball - Futures Moneyline
2008 Regular Season Series - New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox
(MLB.com for official results) Must play a minimum of 14 games between both teams for action. Singles Only. Max $300
(13001) New York Yankees +125
LOSS

2008 Regular Season Wins - Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Team must play 160 regular season games for action. (Only 2008 Regular Season). Singles Only. Max $600
Over 72 (-120) (3)
WIN

2008 Regular Season Wins - St Louis Cardinals
Team must play 160 regular season games for action. (Only 2008 Regular Season). Singles Only. Max $600
Under 77½ (-110)
LOSS

2008 Regular Season Wins - Seattle Mariners
Team must play 160 regular season games for action. (Only 2008 Regular Season). Singles Only. Max $600
Under 85 (-115) (2.5)
WIN

2008 Regular Season Wins - San Diego Padres
Team must play 160 regular season games for action. (Only 2008 Regular Season). Singles Only. Max $600
Under 86 (-115)
WIN

2008 Regular Season Wins - Pittsburgh Pirates
Team must play 160 regular season games for action. (Only 2008 Regular Season). Singles Only. Max $600
Over 68½ (-115)
LOSS

2008 Regular Season Wins - Philadelphia Phillies
Team must play 160 regular season games for action. (Only 2008 Regular Season). Singles Only. Max $600
Under 88½ (-115)
LOSS

2008 Regular Season Wins - Oakland Athletics
Team must play 160 regular season games for action. (Only 2008 Regular Season). Singles Only. Max $600
Over 73½ (-120)
WIN

2008 Regular Season Wins - New York Mets
Team must play 160 regular season games for action. (Only 2008 Regular Season). Singles Only. Max $600
Over 93½ (-115)
LOSS

2008 Regular Season Wins - Milwaukee Brewers
Team must play 160 regular season games for action. (Only 2008 Regular Season). Singles Only. Max $600
Over 83½ (-120)
WIN

2008 Regular Season Wins - Los Angeles Angels
Team must play 160 regular season games for action. (Only 2008 Regular Season). Singles Only. Max $600
Under 93 (-115)
LOSS

2008 Regular Season Wins - Florida Marlins
Team must play 160 regular season games for action. (Only 2008 Regular Season). Singles Only. Max $600
Over 68 (-125) (2.5)
WIN

2008 Regular Season Wins - Detroit Tigers
Team must play 160 regular season games for action. (Only 2008 Regular Season). Singles Only. Max $600
Under 94½ (-115)
WIN

2008 Regular Season Wins - Cincinnati Reds
Team must play 160 regular season games for action. (Only 2008 Regular Season). Singles Only. Max $600
Over 76 (-115)
LOSS

2008 Regular Season Wins - Baltimore Orioles
Team must play 160 regular season games for action. (Only 2008 Regular Season). Singles Only. Max $600
Over 66 (-115)
WIN

Thursday Plays

Minnesota Timberwolves +7½ +100 for Game [5Dimes]
Timberwolves(Minnesota) +330 (.5) [SuperBook]
Minnesota 8.0 -107 (2) [Matchbook]
Seattle +272 (.5) [Matchbook]
Seattle 7.0 +102 (2) [Matchbook]

Added Play
I'm going to get out of the SEA play. With the loss of Szczerbiak to CLE, the play changes to one on POR.
Portland Trailblazers -8 -105 for Game (3) [5Dimes]

What will probably happen is Portland wins by 7, continuing the beatdown.

Another Bodog Prop from my bodog prop master friend:
Film/Television Props Moneyline
Bet On: Will an 80th Annual Academy (Oscar) Award winner trip and fall while making their way on or off stage?
Any wagers placed after the result is public knowledge will be graded as No Action. Singles Only. Max. $50.
(9681) No -200 Sun@3:02p

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Wednesday Results

3-2-0 (+2.45 units)

Wednesday Plays

Detroit Pistons/Milwaukee Bucks under 188 -105 for Game [5Dimes]
Philadelphia 76ers -6½ -105 for Game (2) [5Dimes]
Detroit -6.5 +105 (.5) [Matchbook]
Toronto -4.0 -106 [Matchbook]

I also kinda like this bodog prop:
Film/Television Props Moneyline
Bet On: Will the members of the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) hold a strike by July 31st, 2008?
Any wagers placed after the outcome is public knowledge will be graded as No Action. Singles Only. Max. $50.
(9653) No -135 Feb 29/08@3:00p

Added Play
Over 206.5 (ORL/TOR) +100 [Matchbook]

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Tuesday Results

6-3-0 (+1.30 units)

Tuesday Plays

Sacramento Kings +165 for Game (.5) [5Dimes]
Minnesota Timberwolves +135 for Game (.5) [5Dimes]
Minnesota Timberwolves +3 -105 for Game (.5) [5Dimes]
Boston 1.0 -105 (2) [Matchbook]
Seattle -5.0 -111 (2) [Matchbook]
Under 186.0 (PHI/MIN) +103 [Matchbook]
Sacramento 4.5 -108 (1.5) [Matchbook]

Added Play
Utah Jazz -6½ -107 for Game [5Dimes]

I was waiting for official KG status...
Boston -105 (2) [Matchbook]

Saturday, February 16, 2008

Record Update

Week Results
13-17-0 (-4.49 units; ROI: -10.77%)

YTD Results
213-184-5 (+77.57 units; ROI: 10.74%)

Ok so this has to turn around soon...

Friday Results

1-0-0 (+2.00 units)

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Thursday Results

2-2-0 (+1.76 units)

Thursday Play

Dallas 7.5 +104 [Matchbook]
Dallas Mavericks +318 for Game (.5) [5Dimes]

Sorry this is so late. I was waiting to see if Josh Howard was going to play.

Added Play
Chicago +113 (2) [Matchbook]

This line moved from -105 to -120 then back to -110. I have no idea where it's going next.
Miami Heat team total under 98 -110 for Game [5Dimes]

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Wednesday Results

5-7-0 (-4.03 units)

I am tired of this crap. 1/2 point on GS and 1 point on NJ. Wonderful.

Also for you Valentines kids, if you are planning on buying flowers I highly recommend you check out your local Costco on Valentines. They usually have a huge selection of flowers and you can get a nice bouquet for 15 bucks. Sure beats a $100 bouquet from Conroys.

Wednesday Plays

76ers(Philadelphia) -9 (2) [SuperBook]
Atlanta 1.5 -106 (3) [Matchbook]
Los Angeles (L) -9.0 +106 [Matchbook]
Golden State -2.5 +104 (2) [Matchbook]
Los Angeles (C) -3.5 +108 [Matchbook]
Toronto Raptors team total over 100 -110 for Game [5Dimes]
Toronto Raptors -8 -103 for Game [5Dimes]
Indiana Pacers team total under 93½ -105 for Game [5Dimes]
Atlanta Hawks +105 for Game (.5) [5Dimes]

Added Plays
Portland Trailblazers +163 for Game (.5) [5Dimes]
Portland Trailblazers +4 -105 for Game (.5) [5Dimes]

Toronto -9.0 -113 [Matchbook]
New Jersey Nets team total under 90 -110 for Game (2) [5Dimes]
No Kidd = No Points

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Tuesday Results

Oh man. I hope none of you watched that MIN/NJ game.
Allow me to recap the final 20 seconds for you.
Al Jefferson misses a shot. Score is 85-92
NJ is walking it up the floor, running the clock out. MIN has given up.
Douchebag Sebastian Telfair runs up behind Richard Jefferson and knocks the ball off of his foot with 5 seconds left.
Foye hits a 3 pointer with 1.1 seconds left to blow the cover.
If that doesn't sum up the past month, I don't know what will.

0-2-0 (-3.19 units)

Tuesday Plays

Sacramento -4.5 -106 (2) [Matchbook]
New Jersey -6.0 -107 [Matchbook]

Monday, February 11, 2008

Monday Results

3-3-0 (+0.60 units)

I'm having 2nd thoughts about the PHX trade. Not much is scarier than a motivated Shaq. I still think they aren't going to be able to play defense or rebound, but it might not be as horrible as I thought. Then again, considering they struggled against SEA and WAS, I may not have been far off.

Bodog Prop

Business Props Moneyline (Prop)
Bet On: Will Yahoo and AOL merge by July 31, 2008?
An official announcement of a merger or acquisition must be made by July 31, 2008 for Yes to be graded the winner. Any wagers placed after the outcome is public knowledge will be graded as No Action. Singles Only. Max. $50.
(9337) No -250 Feb 23/08@3:00p

Straight from Brendanb438 on 2+2

Monday Plays

Washington Wizards team total under 101½ -105 for Game [5Dimes]
Los Angeles Lakers -8½ -105 for Game [5Dimes]
Orlando -9.0 +107 [Matchbook]
76ers(Philadelphia) +3.5 -110 (3) [SuperBook]
76ers(Philadelphia) +140 (.5) [SuperBook]

Added Play
Toronto +106 (2) [Matchbook]
Just realized the email notification didn't get sent out. Sending it again.

Sunday, February 10, 2008

Saturday, February 9, 2008

Sunday Plays

WAS/PHX Under 210.5 -110 (1.5) [SuperBook]
Boston Celtics +105 for Game (.5) [5Dimes]
Boston Celtics +1 -105 for Game (2) [5Dimes]
Minnesota Timberwolves +185 for Game (.5) [5Dimes]
Minnesota 4.5 +101 (2) [Matchbook]

Record Update

Saturday Results
3-6-0 (-0.97 units)
Figures GS hold a team to 102 points and only score 105 on the only day I've ever bet the over on them. And NO missing the cover by 1 point hurt too, but whatever. I'm tired of this variance.

Week Results
14-18-2 (-3.28 units)

Couldn't recover from that horrible Sunday (-13 units). So once again, this next week will be free. The password will not change. I have high hopes for this week.

YTD Results
197-162-5 (+81.89 units; ROI: 12.25%)

Saturday Plays

Sacramento Kings +7 -105 for Game [5Dimes]
Portland Trailblazers +3½ +100 for Game [5Dimes]
New Orleans -14.0 +107 [Matchbook]
Portland +158 (.5) [Matchbook]
Portland 3.0 +116 [Matchbook]
Sacramento +272 (.5) [Matchbook]

Added Plays
Over 225.0 (SAC/GS) +100 [Matchbook]
Chicago Bulls/Utah Jazz under 202 -105 for Game [5Dimes]
Chicago 12.0 +102 (1.5) [Matchbook]
Chicago +900 (.5) [Matchbook]

Friday, February 8, 2008

Friday Results

Smartcapper is down, but I think this is the correct record for today

3-5-0 (+0.32 units)

What to say about today... really, what can you say? Can I please win one close game? Just one occasionally? ONE of those freaking moneylines today would have been nice.

I'm open to recommendations for the organization of the week. Right now these are the things I'm looking for in an organization:
1. Must be a charity (obviously)
2. Fiscally responsible (low administrative costs and stuff like that)
3. Assisting those in greatest need (as much as I care about cancer and stem-cell research, there are people dying from starvation and treatable diseases every minute)

This next week, if this week finishes up, the organization will be the International Justice Mission. Check it out. I'll have an expanded post about it later on.

Friday Plays

I'm going to try something new, mostly because I'm interested in the results. For every underdog that is a play, I am going to take .5 units off of the spread and put it on the moneyline. For example, NY is a 1.5 unit play today. I am putting 1 unit on the spread and .5 units on the moneyline. I thought about doing this before, but never wanted to put up the units to actually keep track of it. CHI winning with a widely available +800 last night finally convinced me. Hopefully SEA will pull something out of a hat against PHX tonight.

Seattle Supersonics +12 -105 for Game (3) [5Dimes]
New York Knicks +285 for Game (.5) [5Dimes]
New York Knicks +7½ -108 for Game [5Dimes]
Charlotte Bobcats -4½ -103 for Game [5Dimes]
Seattle +920 (.5) [Matchbook]
Timberwolves(Minnesota) +210 (.5) [SuperBook]
Timberwolves(Minnesota) +6 (-105) (2) [SuperBook]

Thursday, February 7, 2008

Thursday Results

2-1-0 (+1.97 units)

Screw 68 point 4th quarters that kill unders.

Protected: Early Play

Hawks(Atlanta) -2.5 -105 (3) [SuperBook]

This line will probably move due to Gibson, Varejao, Gooden, and Pavlovic being out. Who else is on that team?

Thursday Plays

Chicago Bulls +13 -110 for Game (2) [5Dimes]
Under 214.0 (CHI/GS) -103 [Matchbook]

Check back for more around 2:30 PST.

Added Play
Chicago Bulls +13 -109 for Game [Matchbook]

Chicago isn't that bad, right?

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Wednesday Results

4-3-0 (+3.76 units)

Bringing it back.

Wednesday Plays

Under 187.0 (MIA/DET) -103 [Matchbook]
Under 183.5 (SA/WAS) -105 (2) [Matchbook]
New Orleans Hornets +5 -103 for Game (2 more) [5Dimes]
Phoenix Suns team total under 109½ -110 for Game [5Dimes]
Los Angeles Lakers -3½ -108 for Game (2) [5Dimes]

Don't NBA players get flu shots?

Added Play
Utah 2.0 +105 [Matchbook]

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Early Play

Hornets(NewOrleans) +6 (3) [SuperBook]

If Marion does get traded, this play may double. +6 is a great line now because we don't know anything about Marion's status.

NBA Trade Thoughts

There looks like there is a major trade in the works, Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O'Neal, pending a physical (source Yahoo! Sports).

For Suns fans, the one thing you can hope for is that Shaq does not pass the physical. In my opinion, Shaq + Suns = .500 season (from now on). Now, Shaq wouldn't be a horrible addition to the Suns if it did not cost them Marion. What do the Suns think they're gaining here? The only reasoning behind this trade is that they want to get something for Marion before he ops out of his contract at the end of the season. The Suns are a semi-legitimate championship contender with their current roster and the only thing missing was some interior defense and rebounding. To fill that void you give up your best defender and rebounder and replace him with Shaq? Also, who is Steve Nash going to be throwing lobs to with 22 seconds still on the shot clock? Check the replays, 100% of the time it is Marion.

Well, at least Marion will get what he wants, to be the best player on his team and get some respect, oh wait no, he's on Dwyane Wade's team. Maybe now he'll remember what it feels like to lose. (reference ESPN.com)

I do believe that the Suns run-and-gun type of offense can win a championship, but it will require 2 parts:
1. Steve Nash
2. Shawn Marion

For you stat junkies like me:
There is only 1 combo in the league that is more efficient than Garnett/Pierce (Net 48 min +/- of 15.1)
Nash /Marion (Net 48 min +/- of +13.2)

That's only 1 stat you say?
Garnett/Pierce/R.Allen (Net 48 min +/- of 15)
Nash/Marion/Stoudemire (Net 48 min +/- of 14)

Seriously Steve Kerr? This trade just pisses me off. Why didn't they trade Marcus banks and Sean Marks for Gasol?

Tuesday Results

5-2-0 (+4.40 units)

Seriously Indiana? Seriously? 2 points in the 3rd quarter with 4 min left? I had the Pacers OVER 94 which I forgot to post, so lucky you guys.

Tuesday Plays

Boston 2.5 +116 (2) [Matchbook]
Los Angeles (L) -7.0 -101 [Matchbook]
Indiana 5.0 +105 [Matchbook]
Philadelphia 76ers +1½ -104 for Game [5Dimes]

I'll be adding more plays later today probably.

Added Plays
Boston 3.0 +108 [Matchbook]
Los Angeles (L) -7.0 -107 [Matchbook]
Indiana 5.0 +113 [Matchbook]

Monday, February 4, 2008

Monday Results

0-6-2 (-12.76 units)

Well. Nothing I can say about today. 2 pushes, 1 .5 point loss, and 0 Phoenix Suns players can play defense.

This is going to be tough to recover from. I may go back to rethinking my system, but it has had so much success this year I'm not sure what to think.

This probably has something to do with increasing my unit size 2-3 weeks ago.

Monday Plays

Charlotte Bobcats team total under 101½ -110 for Game (2) [5Dimes]
New Orleans Hornets +3½ -105 for Game [5Dimes]
New Orleans 3.0 +108 [Matchbook]
Orlando Magic -4½ -105 for Game [5Dimes]
Phoenix -14.0 -107 [Matchbook]
Under 217.5 (CHA/PHX) -102 (3) [Matchbook]
Minnesota 5.5 -110 (4) [Matchbook]
Philadelphia 5.0 +100 (3) [Matchbook]

Sunday, February 3, 2008

Sunday Results

2-0-2

Boom baby. Also was on the Giants spread and ML, but definitely didn't want to recommend that as they were purely for entertainment value only.

YTD Props:
3-0-2

No Sunday Plays

There was going to be a pretty substantial play on the Lakers, but the line moved from -5 to -4 in about 60 seconds so I assume that Caron Butler is playing.

I'll be back tomorrow.

Some Superbowl Props

Not sure if these lines have moved a lot, but here are a few props (bodog) that my friend told me about. Once again, these don't count for anything, just a nice extra bonus (well only if they win) for you guys.

Football - NFL Team Props Moneyline
If the Patriots win, will Bob Kraft mention the 72 Dolphins during the Trophy Presentation?
Any wagers placed after the outcome is public knowledge will be No Action. Singles Only. Max $300
(1623) Yes -135 Sun@3:20p

Football - NFL Team Props Total
How Many Times will Joe Buck mention Peyton Manning's name during the Broadcast?
Any wagers placed after the outcome is public knowledge will be No Action (Halftime included). Joe Buck must mention full name in order to count. Singles Only. Max $300.
(1621/1622) Under 5½ (-115) Sun@3:20p

Football - NFL Team Props Moneyline
2008 Super Bowl XLII - Will there be a successful 2 point conversion?
Wager is on if either team will score a 2 pt conversion in game. Team must attempt a 2pt conversion for wager to have action. Overtime counts towards wager. Game must go 55 minutes for action. Singles Only. Max $700
(80) Yes (Successful 2 Pt conversion) +200 Sun@3:20p

Patriots - Total Rushing Yards
Rushing Yards
Rushing Yards 02/03/08(18:30 ET)
Under 118.5 (-115) [SuperBook]

Saturday, February 2, 2008

Record Update

Saturday Results
5-2-0 (+6.63 units)

Week Results
25-22-0 (+7.30 units; ROI: 7.76%)

YTD Results
183-144-3 (+85.49 units; ROI: 13.73%)

Finally an up week. Yay. Passwords will be sent out tomorrow morning. If you have already prepaid or what not, you do not have to make a donation this week. Be sure to forward me your contribution email from blood water mission or donate the usual way through paypal or google checkout and I will pass all of the money on to blood water mission.

Organization of the Week

Once again, I'm right on the border of having an up week. If this week ends up, if you would like to continue your subscription, you must make a donation to the "Organization of the Week".

You can do this one of two ways.
1. Go directly to the organization website and donate there. Forward me your confirmation email detailing the amount.
2. Pay for the subscription as usual, through paypal or google checkout, and I will pass all of the money to the organization.

Blood Water Mission

Website: BloodWaterMission.com

Background:
Sub-Saharan Africa has just over 10% of the world's population, but is home to more than 60% of all people living with HIV - some 25.4 million. In just 2004 alone, an estimated 3.1 million people in the region became newly infected, while 2.3 million died of AIDS.

Clean water is a basic human right and a foundational element in community health, and is in many ways the first step toward achieving overall community health. Unsafe water and poor sanitation play a major role in the transmission of many diseases, including diarrhea, cholera, malaria, schistosomiasis and typhoid. Diarrhea alone is responsible for the deaths of 1.8 million people each year, 90% of whom are children under 5, and 88% of diarrhea is caused by unclean water and inadequate sanitation (World Health Organization).

Clean water is particularly important for AIDS patients, many of whom die from opportunistic infections that are transmitted through water. Accessible clean water helps prevent the aggravation of the disease and provides effective care for AIDS patients.

Brief Description of Organization:
BWM (Blood Water Mission) is an organization that fights AIDS and waterborne illness by drilling wells for villages in Africa. An entire well for the village costs, on average, $3,000 USD. This single well will provide clean water for the entire village for the entire life of the village. Please check out the website for a more detailed description.

Personal Note:
Let's be honest, $3,000 USD is not that much money, but it can provide clean water for an entire village. Every dollar counts. One statistic I found on the website is "$1 provides one year of clean water for an African".
With a measly $1 dollar donation, you will save a life. It doesn't get any better than that.

Saturday Plays

Charlotte Bobcats/Denver Nuggets under 212½ -109 for Game [5Dimes]
Utah Jazz -8½ -105 for Game [5Dimes]
Utah -9.0 +111 [Matchbook]
Atlanta Hawks -6½ -107 for Game (2) [5Dimes]

Too many "game time decisions". Possibly more plays to come with injury updates.

Added Plays
New York 3.0 +107 (2) [Matchbook]
New York 4.0 -109 (2) [Matchbook]

Added Play
Charlotte Bobcats/Denver Nuggets under 212½ -105 for Game (.5) [5Dimes]

Friday Results

2-4-0 (-0.69 units)

That Gasol/Brown trade pretty much ended any chance we had on covering the TOR play. I sure missed the 2 missed dunks and 6 TOs from Brown yesterday.

I'm still in shock about this trade. All of the sudden the Lakers are a championship contender. They might have made a run in the playoffs if they just benched Kwame and had Turiaf play 40 min, but now that they have Gasol they become an instant contender, not only because Gasol is a beast, but his skill set (passing, defense, post presence, all that crap) is perfect for the triangle system. And Memphis is headed for another 5-77 season next year (especially if they are able to get rid of Mike Miller as rumored).

Friday, February 1, 2008

Friday Plays

New Orleans Hornets -2 -105 for Game (3) [5Dimes]
Philadelphia 76ers +4½ -103 for Game [5Dimes]
Toronto Raptors -6 -107 for Game [5Dimes]
Toronto -6.5 +107 [Matchbook]

Too many "game time decisions" today. Makes it tough to cap.
There are a few 1-3c arbs from superbook/sportsbook to matchbook if you are interested.

Added Plays
Utah -5.5 +113 (5) [Matchbook]
Miami 3.5 -106 (2) [Matchbook]

Who likes betting when Caron Butler is out? I do.