Thursday, January 31, 2008

Thursday Results

4-1-0 (+4.56 units)

If you told me SEA without Szczerbiak was going to score 40 in a quarter I would try to sell you a bridge.

Bills217 on 2+2 has a nice spreadsheet for tracking bets. I highly recommend some form of tracking so you can keep track of how well you are doing: Spreadsheet
I use smartcapper.com to track all of mine. Smartcapper has a lot of useful tools on the site also, except for picks :-).

Thursday Plays

Seattle Supersonics +3½ -108 for Game [5Dimes]
Los Angeles (L) 7.5 +103 (2) [Matchbook]
Boston -102 (2) [Matchbook]

Sorry they're a little late. I just woke up.

Added Play
Dallas Mavericks team total under 94½ -105 for Game (1.5) [5Dimes]
Possible play on the CLE/SEA game depending on LeBron. Check back close to tip off.

Added Play
Under 192.0 (CLE/SEA) +100 (2) [Matchbook]

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Wednesday Results

2-6-0 (-6.27 units)

Can I not lose a FREAKING PLAY IN THE SECOND HALF? That is all.

Wednesday Plays

Charlotte 7.0 +112 (2) [Matchbook]
Charlotte Bobcats +7½ -105 for Game [5Dimes]
Chicago 4.0 +111 [Matchbook]
Chicago Bulls +4½ -105 for Game [5Dimes]
New Orleans -8.5 -103 (2.5) [Matchbook]
Portland Trailblazers -3 -103 for Game (3) [5Dimes]

There are multiple plays on the same side because I'm getting tired of losing by 1/2 of a point, but I still like the better odds, so I'm splitting the plays up.

Also from last night:
Toronto Raptors -5 -110 for Game (2.5) [BetJM]
Toronto -5.5 -110 (2) [Superbook]
If you didn't get these lines, I still like a 2.5-3 unit play at -10. Alternatively, the WAS UNDER 90.5 is not horrible either.
Check back later for a ATL/LAC play. Waiting for definite status on a lot of the Clippers.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Tuesday Results

5-6-0 (-6.07 units)

Screw that. Stupid NY. Stupid MIL. Toronto should learn how to get a defensive rebound every once and a while. Interesting, the plays I lost were all the big ones. Won all the smaller ones.

Early Wednesday Play

Toronto Raptors -5 -110 for Game (2.5) [BetJM]

Took the TOR play where the sun don't shine today. Let's try again tomorrow.
This line has been taken down by some books or not even offered by others. There is no way that TOR doesn't cover this spread. Well, that's what I thought about today...

Added more
Toronto -5.5 -110 (2) [SuperBook]
Pinny currently has this line at -8.5

Tuesday Plays

Chicago Bulls -4 -107 for Game
Boston -5.0 +107 (2)
Indiana 7.5 -102 (1.5)
Houston -3.5 +106 (2)
Milwaukee 5.0 +101 (3)
Under 188.5 (MIN/CHI) -106
New York 8.5 +125 (2)
New York 9.5 +101 (2)
Toronto 1.5 -103 (2.5)

Added Play
Caron Butler is out for tonight
Toronto Raptors -2 -105 for Game (3) [5Dimes]
-Makes it the largest play ever at 5.5 units.

Another Added Play
Washington Wizards team total under 95½ -110 for Game [5Dimes]
-Pretty much makes the total 6.5 units. This game should make or break me today.

Monday, January 28, 2008

Monday Results

2-0-0 (+5.07 units)

There aren't many lines up for the games tomorrow as of now, so I will probably make the plays around 2:30pm PST.

Monday Plays

Jazz(Utah) -2 -110 (4) [SuperBook]
New Orleans -9.0 +107 [Matchbook]

I have changed my system slightly, focusing more on recent games because I feel those numbers better represent a team today, more so than the first game of the season, which is probably the reason I'm having more large (3-4 unit) plays.

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Friday and Sunday Results

Forgot to post results for Friday.
Friday
4-4-0 (-2.15 units)
lost the Dal -7.5 play by .5 points. Hopefully you got the widely available -7 instead of being greedy for odds like I was.

Sunday
5-3-0 (+4.07 units)

Sunday Plays

Cleveland 3.5 +112 [Matchbook]
Denver 11.0 +101 (3) [Matchbook]
New York 9.5 +102 (4) [Matchbook]
Utah 3.0 +104 (2) [Matchbook]
Washington -1.0 -104 (1.5) [Matchbook]
Under 208.5 (PHX/CHI) -108 (1.5) [Matchbook]
Chicago Bulls +7½ -102 for Game (4) [5Dimes]
Sacramento Kings -5 -105 for Game (2) [5Dimes]

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Future Subscriptions

I have been thinking about the whole subscription thing and I am going to change the model.

Here's the thing, I don't really need your money.

However, other people do.

So from now on, instead of sending me money through paypal or google checkout, please donate it to the "organization of the week". I will still accept payments through paypal or google checkout, but I will donate all of the proceeds to the "organization of the week".

Since I had another slightly negative week, you do not have to donate this week, but of course feel free to do so. I will keep this organization until I have a positive week.

Blood Water Mission

Website: BloodWaterMission.com

Background:
Sub-Saharan Africa has just over 10% of the world's population, but is home to more than 60% of all people living with HIV - some 25.4 million. In just 2004 alone, an estimated 3.1 million people in the region became newly infected, while 2.3 million died of AIDS.

Clean water is a basic human right and a foundational element in community health, and is in many ways the first step toward achieving overall community health. Unsafe water and poor sanitation play a major role in the transmission of many diseases, including diarrhea, cholera, malaria, schistosomiasis and typhoid. Diarrhea alone is responsible for the deaths of 1.8 million people each year, 90% of whom are children under 5, and 88% of diarrhea is caused by unclean water and inadequate sanitation (World Health Organization).

Clean water is particularly important for AIDS patients, many of whom die from opportunistic infections that are transmitted through water. Accessible clean water helps prevent the aggravation of the disease and provides effective care for AIDS patients.

Brief Description of Organization:
BWM (Blood Water Mission) is an organization that fights AIDS and waterborne illness by drilling wells for villages in Africa. An entire well for the village costs, on average, $3,000 USD. This single well will provide clean water for the entire village for the entire life of the village. Please check out the website for a more detailed description.

Personal Note:
Let's be honest, $3,000 USD is not that much money, but it can provide clean water for an entire village. Every dollar counts. One statistic I found on the website is "$1 provides one year of clean water for an African".
With a measly $1 dollar donation, you will save a life. It doesn't get any better than that.

See, now we can all feel better about our gambling addictions and get a tax break at the same time.

Record Update

Saturday Results
1-0-0 (+4.00 units)
I took the NO at -110 since no odds were posted. Thanks to my roommate Jon for posting the pick.

Week Results
11-10-0 (-2.59 units; ROI: -6.54%)

YTD Results
158-122-3 (+78.19 units; ROI: 14.79%)

Saturday Play

NO +5 (4)

Friday, January 25, 2008

This Weekend

I may not have an internet connection on Friday night or Saturday morning, but I am going to get a friend to post plays for you guys. They may come later in the day than usual.

So, I will not be able to post results tonight. Also, we won't know if I have a positive week until Saturday, so you can decide for yourself if you would like to extend your subscription then.

Friday Plays

Ton of plays today. This should just about make or break the week. Sorry so late on the plays, I was trying to make sure I got every injury accounted for.

Boston Celtics -13 -103 for Game (2) [5Dimes]
Under 190.0 (CHA/CHI) +102 [Matchbook]
Portland -2.0 -102 (2) [Matchbook]
Dallas -7.5 +110 (2.5) [Matchbook]
Washington -8.5 +113 [Matchbook]
Denver -7.5 -108 (2.5) [Matchbook]
Orlando 7.5 -113 (2) [Matchbook]
Utah -7.5 +103 (2) [Matchbook]

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Friday Results

0-2-0 (-5.00 units)

Blah. If you're still awake you should be watching the Federer vs. Djokovic match.

Thursday Plays

Indiana 4.5 +117 (3.5)
Golden State -9.0 +102 (1.5)

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Wednesday Results

1-4-0 (-5.50 units)

Blah.

Tennis Results
1-2-0 (+0.00 units)

Wednesday Plays

Los Angeles Clippers +2½ -103 for Game (1.5) [5Dimes]
Indiana 3.0 +124 (2) [Matchbook]
Phoenix -8.0 +101 (2) [Matchbook]
Boston -9.0 +101 [Matchbook]
Washington 3.0 +109 (2) [Matchbook]

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Tennis Plays

These plays won't count for anything, but I like these tennis plays for tonight.

J.Blake 1st Set Games Won/R.Federer 1st Set Games Won over 9½ -120 for Game (2) [5Dimes]
J.Blake 1st Set Games Won +1½ +190 for Game [5Dimes]
James Blake +1350 [Matchbook]

The matchbook line has been all over the place. It is now a little bit lower at 1100, but was up to 1400 earlier tonight. Maybe it will move up closer to match time.

No Tuesday Plays

Sorry. Maybe some later.

Monday, January 21, 2008

Monday Results

5-0-0 (+6.06 units)

Now at an all-time high in total unit growth

Monday Plays

Denver Nuggets/Los Angeles Lakers under 226 -102 for Game
New Orleans Hornets -10½ -105 for Game
Portland 1.0 +100 (2)
Utah -3.0 +102
Memphis -1.5 +104

Saturday, January 19, 2008

Record Update

Saturday Results
5-3-0 (+2.60 units)

Good day, but came up short of a +ROI for this week. As promised, next week will be free. You will be getting an email shortly.
The Clippers actually pulled one out.
Al Thornton and Sean Williams are going to be good in a few years.

As of now, there will not be a play tomorrow unless the PHX line moves to -8.5 or better.

Week Results
17-17-0 (-1.49 units; ROI: -2.52%)

YTD Results
147-112-3 (+80.78 units; ROI: 16.52%)

Saturday Plays

Right on time...

Memphis 5.5 +100 [Matchbook]
New York 4.0 +110 [Matchbook]
Portland 5.5 +101 (3) [Matchbook]
Toronto -2.0 +101 [Matchbook]
Golden State Warriors +3 -110 for Game (3) [5Dimes]
Clippers(LA) +1.5 -110 (1.5) [SuperBook]

Added Play
Detroit Pistons/Chicago Bulls under 186½ -105 for Game [5Dimes]
Under 195.5 (NY/MIA) -104 [Matchbook]

Friday, January 18, 2008

Friday Results

4-2-0 (+4.46 units)

The reason I have added totals back in the mix is I believe that they are still +EV, despite losing both of them today. For the season, my record in totals is: 32-34-0 (+3.11 units; ROI: 3.09%)
Despite what we are used to with spreads, 109-71-3 (+78.90 units; ROI: 21.42%)

So adding totals will probably decrease the ROI because of the lower edge, but hopefully it will help increase unit growth, which is all that really matters.

As of now for this week my record is: 12-14-0 (-4.09 units; ROI: -8.88%)
If this does not turn to a +ROI by the end of tomorrow, as promised, those who subscribed for this week will receive the next week free. What a deal :-P.

Plays tomorrow will be posted around 12pm PST.

Friday Plays

Golden State Warriors/Chicago Bulls under 211½ -105 for Game [5Dimes]
Seattle Supersonics/Memphis Grizzlies under 215½ -105 for Game [5Dimes]
Utah Jazz -9½ -105 for Game [5Dimes]
Washington Wizards -8 -105 for Game (1.5) [5Dimes]
Boston -10.5 +102 (3) [Matchbook]
Hornets(NewOrleans) -8.5 (-105) [SuperBook]

Come on 6-0...

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Thursday Results

0-2-0 (-4.72 units)

So this is what a downswing feels like. I don't like it. Hopefully it's just variance, otherwise we have some major problems.

Kwame Brown sucks. Sucks. If you watched the 3rd/4th quarter you would understand what I mean.

So I have 2 days to turn around a -8.55 unit week. I'm ready for +10 unit days. How about you?

Thursday Plays

UTA +3.5 -105 (1.5) [SuperBook]

If you can't get +3.5, +2.5 isn't a bad bet either.

Added Play
LAL +2.0 -105 (3) [SuperBook]

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Wednesday Results

3-4-0 (-3.48 units)

Bleh. Not used to 2 losing days in a row. I actually thought every single one of these bets was good too. Oh well. Up 10 units tomorrow?

Wednesday Plays

New York 7.0 +112
Atlanta 3.5 -102 (3)
New Orleans -11.0 +110
Chicago Bulls +3½ -105 for Game
Golden State Warriors +2 -105 for Game (1.5)
Seattle Supersonics/New Orleans Hornets under 198 -105 for Game

Added Play
Chicago Bulls/Miami Heat under 190 -102 for Game

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Tuesday Results

1-4-0 (-3.77 units)

Denver and Washington both got run out of the gym and Houston sucked so bad in the 4th I'm glad they lost.
Must dominate tomorrow.
Good thing I won the LAC play.

Tuesday Plays

Los Angeles Clippers +8 -107 for Game (3.5) [5Dimes]
Washington Wizards -2½ -108 for Game (2.5) [5Dimes]
Cleveland Cavaliers/Memphis Grizzlies under 197½ -107 for Game [5Dimes]
Houston -9.5 +109 (2.5) [Matchbook]

Added Play
Denver 2.5 +103 [Matchbook]

Sunday, January 13, 2008

Sunday Results

1-1-0 (-2.12 units)

Sorry about the added play not being sent out. Not sure what happened there.
Man, Detroit loses to NY? Goes to show you that at the professional level any team can be beaten on any given day.

Bodog Prop
Win
Will not count towards record

Hopefully you maxed that sucker.

Sunday Plays

Detroit -8.0 -104 (3)

Added Play
Memphis Grizzlies/Los Angeles Lakers under 219 -105 for Game

Record Update

Friday Results
3-1-0 (+1.47 units)

Week Results (1/6-1/12)
11-9-0 (-1.02 units; ROI: -2.62%)

Week Results (1/1-1/12)
21-13-0 (+9.89 units; ROI: 14.27%)

YTD Results
130-95-3 (+82.27 units; ROI: 19.14%)

Friday, January 11, 2008

Friday Plays

Los Angeles Lakers -12½ -103 for Game [5Dimes]
Denver Nuggets -4½ -105 for Game [5Dimes]
Houston Rockets -10 -105 for Game (2) [5Dimes]
New Orleans -11.0 -105 (.5) [Matchbook]

Not all that much today. I have sent out passwords to everyone that has paid thus far. If you pay after 4pm today, I will send the password out on Sunday to you.

I will probably not post anything until Sunday afternoon. See you all then.

One of my friends I consider a bodog prop master recommended this prop to me:

Football - NFL Team Props Total
How many times will the fox in game broadcast team say Jessica Simpson's Name?
Does not include, Pre/post game or Half time. Singles Only. Max $100
(1942/1943) Under 6½ (-120) Sat@12:00a

I would take this for 2 units depending on your unit size.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Thursday Results

My bad on the PHX +6.5 play. That's why you don't follow blindly :-P

3-1-0 (+3.86 units)

Just think if I didn't have that play, +7 units...

There will not be any plays on Saturday. If you would like to continue your subscription, please make payment for next week soon so I have adequate time to send you the password if the shopping cart thing doesn't work correctly.
Once again, whatever 1-2 units is for you is recommended. Thanks.

Thursday Plays

Detroit 3.5 -107 (3) [Matchbook]
Memphis 4.0 -108 (1.5) [Matchbook]
Phoenix 6.5 -104 (3.5) [Matchbook]

Ugh. No Steve Nash tonight. Do not bet the Phoenix line if you have not already.

Added Play
Phoenix Suns/Utah Jazz under 219 -105 for Game (3)

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Wednesday Results

0-3-0 (-7.28 units)

Owned in the face. Time to pick it up.

Wednesday Plays

Boston Celtics -13 -109 for Game (2.5) [5Dimes]
Detroit 2.5 -101 (3) [Matchbook]
Philadelphia 8.5 -101 (1.5) [Matchbook]

I will be going out of town on Friday night. There will not be any plays on Saturday. I will be back on Sunday afternoon so there may be some plays then.

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Tuesday Results

4-3-0 (+2.43 units)

Seriously? That Orlando game went over? What an amazing 4th quarter by Orlando, but not enough to win.

Tuesday Plays

Charlotte 2.0 +100 (2)
Seattle 9.0 -102
Orlando Magic/Sacramento Kings over 197½ -105 for Game
Indiana Pacers/Utah Jazz under 211½ -109 for Game (1.5)
New York Knicks/Chicago Bulls under 190½ -105 for Game
Indiana Pacers +8 -105 for Game (2)
New York Knicks +7 +100 for Game (2)

Monday, January 7, 2008

Tuesday Results

0-1-0 (-3.50 units)

Close one. Well, until overtime...

Monday Play and NCAAF Play

San Antonio 3.0 +100 (3.5)

I spent all morning trying to get a better line than this. I had the opportunity at matchbook for +102, but thought I could get +104 or better. I was wrong. Hopefully you will be able to get a better line.

Trying to makeup for the Hawaii play...
Ohio State 3.5 -105 (1.5)
Remember, I know nothing about NCAAF, but I figure this will make the game interesting.

Sunday, January 6, 2008

Sunday Results

1-0-0 (+2.00 units)

I am a beast.

Sunday Play

Washington Wizards -8 -103 for Game (2)

Might be more plays later on...

Just kidding. No more plays today I don't think unless there is an injury I missed.

Saturday, January 5, 2008

Record Update

Saturday Results
2-0-0 (+5.80 units)

Week Results
12-7-0 (+12.27 units; ROI: 26.95%)

YTD Results
119-86-3 (+83.29 units; ROI: 21.30%)

Man I'm on fire.

As of now, no plays for tomorrow. Check back around 2pm PST. I will be busy most of the morning and I'm not sure if I'll be able to get plays (if any) up.

Added Play for Saturday

I'm going to assume Deng is not playing.

Sacramento 8.0 -101 (3) [Matchbook]

Saturday Plays

Houston -9.5 +112 (2.5)

Unfortunately there are a ton of players listed as questionable or doubtful, so it makes these games really hard to handicap.

There may be plays on PHX and SAC, but not right now until I find more about injuries. These plays may come late, so stay tuned.

And I'm probably not going to post "potential plays" anymore because I don't think it really helps. If you feel otherwise, let me know.

Friday, January 4, 2008

Friday Results

6-2-0 (+4.15 units)

A few interesting games today. The Knicks gave the Spurs a challenge, Miami played without Wade, O'Neal, and Williams and put up a real good fight against the Mavericks, and Memphis didn't lose by 10.

The Bucks are horrible and I still have the heater going. I am being more liberal in my play selection and today it paid off despite losing the 4 unit Boston play.

Do any of you use Diamond Sportsbook (2betdsi.com)? I am considering opening an account there if you have had a good experience and maybe we could split a referral bonus...

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Friday Plays

Atlanta +2.5
Boston -13
Denver -6.5
NO +3.5

Once again, I don't recommend doing anything with these plays because many things can change overnight.

If you are feeling generous or just love me, I have created an Amazon wish list with a few items that will assist me in handicapping baseball this upcoming season. If you so feel inclined to buy me these things, I will love you forever.

My Amazon.com Wish List

Sorry you guys were too slow. Thanks Michael for buying these for me. I really appreciate it. If you were interested in buying them also for your own personal enjoyment, they were: Baseball Prospectus 2008 and Baseball Forcaster 2008

Thursday Results

1-0-0 (+1.16 units)

If Luol Deng played the entire game, we would have lost. But he didn't.

Thursday Plays

Not much today with only 3 games. The Portland game is interesting. Depending on what criteria I use to handicap the game I get very different results.
With more recent statistics I get a 5 unit play, but when I make some minor adjustments, I get a 0 unit play. When I use the full year statistics I get a 1 unit play. This has not happened before, so I'm going to go on the more conservative side and post a 1 unit play.
You never know what you're going to get against the Bulls. Occasionally you will see the Bulls from last year, but more often than not, you will see the 60 point Bulls.

Portland 3.0 +116

I also added Legendz Sportsbook as a recommended book. You can never have too many books for lineshopping. They seem to have a few soft lines that we can take advantage of. Ex/ Portland +4 -110.

Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Wednesday Results

1-2-0 (-0.20 units)

Orlando sucks. How do you get blown out (18-30) in the 4th quarter at home by New Jersey?

Charotte sucks. How do you get blown out (18-31) in the 4th quarter at home by Chicago?

Thank you Joe Johnson for your 2 lucky 3's at the end of the game.

As of now there aren't really any lines up so I'll just post plays in the morning.

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

Wednesday Plays

As promised, the night before I will post lines that as of now look interesting, but I do not recommend doing anything with them until the morning when I make official plays.

NBA
Atlanta +5

And I hope none of you took my Hawaii play. That is why I stick with basketball and baseball.

I will update this post in the morning.

Update:
Wednesday NBA
Atlanta 5.0 -103 (3)
Charlotte +1.0 -107 (1.5)
Orlando -6.0 +107 (1.5)

If you haven't signed up for post notification, I highly recommend it. It would be sad if you missed plays.

General Handicapping Advice and NCAAF Play

What should I do with these picks? What if there is a late-breaking injury or if I think you're dead wrong?
Please, please, please do not follow these picks blindly. You are the sole person responsible for deciding which picks to put in play. I make most of the plays early on in the day so you all will have a chance to see them, but the drawback is that I may miss injuries that get reported later or something of the sort. If you think a play is dumb or there is an injury that I may not have accounted for, do not bet that pick.

How should I determine my bankroll? What about varying it? What percentage of my bankroll should I use per unit?
A general rule for determining total bankroll size is however much money you don't mind losing. If you would be in financial trouble or in big time trouble with the wife, lower your bankroll size.
For my picks, I am going to recommend .5% of your bankroll per unit because most of my plays are 2-3 unit plays, but in the end, this is really up to you. The higher % of your bankroll each unit size is, the higher the risk of ruin.
Ideally your bankroll changes daily. This is probably not realistic especially if you have money at multiple books. A general rule of thumb is for every 10% increase or decrease in total bankroll size, you should adjust your unit sizes. So if you have been following my picks through the entire season, you would have increased your bankroll/unit size multiple times.

How many sportsbooks should I have money with and how important is lineshopping?
As many high rated sportsbooks as possible would be advisable. If you are outside the US, Pinnacle is a must. The others for Basketball I would recommend are Matchbook and 5Dimes. BetJM doesn't really offer anything noteworthy for basketball, but they are great for baseball.
The reason you want to have multiple sportsbooks open to your use is lineshopping. Often times, good lineshopping can turn a losing bettor into a winning one. It is probably one of the most underrated things you can do to increase your bankroll.

What should I do if I cannot get the same lines that you do? Ex/ Play of UTA +7, but I can only get +6.5.
I use the Kelly Criterion to determine all bet sizes so this is a tough one. For now, let's go with for every 1 point shift in the spread, lower your unit size by .5 units. This may be too conservative, but that's why you shouldn't follow blindly :-).

What ROI should I expect with your picks?
5%. Period. The current 20% ROI is unsustainable and I am probably leaving +EV bets on the table, but I'm working on that.

You are awesome, what can I do to help?

You can refer people to this site, increase your weekly subscription "donations", sign up through one of the banners under Books.

Please feel free to email me with any further questions. I hope this is helpful to all of you.


Play for Tuesday
This will not count for anything. I know almost nothing about college football, but I'm a big Colt Brennan fan because he is an absolute beast.

Hawaii +9½ -105 for Game (1.5)

Monday Results

1-2-0 (+0.40 units)

I will be making a post later so you guys can test out the password feature. It will be the password for this week.

I will make some bankroll/unit size recommendation in that post too, so you don't want to miss it.