Saturday, September 27, 2008

NFL Teasers

If you do not have a SportBet account. Do not do the 2 teamers. Only do the 3 teamers if you have -110 on the 2 teamers. Get a SportBet account as fast as possible.
Here is why:

6 Point 2 Teamers (+100)
Car -.5 [SportBet]
Buf -2 [SportBet]
SD -1.5 [SportBet]

6.5 Point 2 Teamers (-110)
Ari +7.5 [SportBet]
GB +7.5 [SportBet]

3 team round-robin all of the above plays at [JustBet]/[Bet Guardian] or whatever book you have ([JustBet]/[Bet Guardian] had the best lines on all of them when I looked)
6 Point 3 Teamers +180
6.5 Point 3 Teamers +160

Good luck. If you did it right, you should have risked 20 units. This will be a really good weekend, or really bad.


joebob said...

If you have +100s, you should bet about 2u on each of the 10 combinations (and nothing on the 3-teamers). If you don't have +100s, you should bet about 1u on each of the 10 3-team combinations (and nothing on the 2-teamers). Unless your unit size is big enough that you can't get down enough at +100, you shouldn't mix and match. +100>>>>+180>>>>-110

dudeimstoked said...

i'm not sure that is entirely correct.

rigsley made a post on 2+2 here:

if you have 3 teams the proper half kelly stake at the WA -110 for 2 teamers/+180 3 teamer is

2 teamers - 1.64%
3 teamers - 2.93%

but if you're getting +100 on the 2 teamers, its better to lay more money on the 2 teamer

-105 is slightly more on the 3 teamer

joebob said...

I don't think that post is correct. For 3 teams, I show action only on the 2-teamer at +100, and only on the 3-teamer at -105 and worse. At -105 and 75% win%, some action shows up on -105 (but not -110), but I don't think that's a realistic win%.

dudeimstoked said...

hmmm... thanks. I actually don't know too much behind the math for basic strategy (wong) teasers, so your comments have been helpful. I guess in the future I will just do the 2 teamers at sportbet.

However, the current season has turned me off a lot towards teasers. I'm getting tired of getting absolutely murdered on them. I will post the weekend results later today.

joebob said...

I've roughly alternated big wins and big losses, with one week of no teasers (where I cleaned up on alt spread +7.5s, which are like 1-leg teasers). Especially with 3-teamers, your disaster scenarios have a decent chance of happening.