Thursday, August 14, 2008

Home Field Advantage

A question came up on 2+2 on how to equate home field advantage.
For the MLB, about 54% of the time, the home team wins, which obviously equates to a 4% home field advantage.
However, what is the best way to incorporate that into your handicapping?
One way is to use a static 4%, the other is to use an approximation in cents.

Example:
Toronto vs Los Angeles
both have a 50% chance of winning
true line would be +100 at a neutral field
true line would be +116 away or -116 home (with 4% HFA or 16 cent HFA)

now lets say los angeles has a 75% chance of winning
true line would be -300 at neutral field
true line would be -376 at home (with 4% HFA)
true line would be -316 at home (with 16 cent HFA)

using a static 4% HFA could result in overvaluing of home favorites.

There's my attempt at making this site more informative than just picks.

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