The Data Mining Project
Archive for August, 2008
Record Update
Aug 30th
MLB
Week Results
8-7-0 (+10.86 units; ROI: 39.93%)
August Results
39-34-3 (+26.29 units; ROI: 22.59%)
YTD Results
215-225-20 (+19.47 units; ROI: 2.80%)
WNBA
Saturday Results
0-1-0 (-1.00 units)
Week Results
1-2-0 (-1.05 units; ROI: -35.00%)
YTD Results
12-14-1 (-5.34 units; ROI: -13.45%)
NCAAF
Saturday Results
2-1-0 (+0.95 units)
YTD Results
2-1-0 (+0.95 units; ROI: 31.67%)
Football Sportsbook
Aug 30th
After semi-extensive research, I have decided to do all of my NFL teasers at JustBet and BetGuardian. I opened an account at BetGuardian yesterday.
Here are the reasons:
Teaser Odds:
6 POINT Odds
2 TEAMS 1/1
3 TEAMS 9/5
4 TEAMS 3/1
5 TEAMS 9/2
6 TEAMS 7/1
6.5 POINT Odds
2 TEAMS 10/11
3 TEAMS 8/5
4 TEAMS 5/2
5 TEAMS 4/1
6 TEAMS 6/1
Exception: When playing a two team teaser (with one or more pro teams) only use the following:
2 TEAMS 6 POINTS 11/10
2 TEAMS 6.5 POINTS 12/10
Now I’m not sure if I understand the “Exception”, but it may provide even better odds for us.
Pretty much every other sportsbook ([5Dimes],[BetJM],[SuperBook],[Bodog]) offer 10/11 on the 6 point 2 teamers. THIS IS HUGE.
It equates to getting +100 on all of your bets versus -110. Or, if I’m reading the exception right, we will get +110 versus -110 on 6 point 2 team teasers. That is unheard of.
EDIT: thanks to stevek, it looks like we have to get odds of 10/11 on 2 teams with the NFL. Why the “exception” shows this as 11/10 instead of 10/11, I have no idea. I will look more into this during the season and see if it is worthwhile to deposit here. It may be just for the ability to lineshop.
I still plan on doing teasers for the 2008 NFL season despite the worse odds. They should still be profitable.
The only issue I see with JustBet and BetGuardian is no different than most books. It is hard to get money on. However, they reimburse all Western Union/Moneygram/Wire transfer/etc fees.
I highly recommend these books to you. They are from the same family, so they offer identical lines, no reason to have both of them, but DO NOT start the NFL season without them.
Saturday Plays
Aug 30th
Lets try this NCAAF thing out.
NCAAF
Oregon -13 +100 for Game [5Dimes]
USC -19½ -105 for Game [5Dimes]
Florida Atlantic +24 -110 for Game [Bodog]
WNBA
Atlanta Dream/Indiana Fever under 148½ -105 for Game [5Dimes]
No MLB Plays today.
I will be on an airplane tomorrow, so no plays on Sunday. I’ll be back on Monday.
Shameless Ad Post
Aug 28th
I hope you guys are all enjoying the picks thus far. I have been really hot and I hope it continues.
Below are the sportsbooks that I have affiliate programs with and make all my plays with (except matchbook because they do not offer an affiliate program).
To help support the costs of running and maintaining the website as well as the development time into my different systems, please consider signing up at one of the following books if you do not have an account there. For the most part, I get a kickback bonus on your deposit (ie you deposit 500, I get 50 bucks).
Official Pure Sabermetrics Sportsbook Recommended List
5Dimes, BetJM, SuperBook/sportsbook.com, Bodog
I will list the special bonuses you can get at these places.I do not have accounts at any of the other books that I have affiliate programs with, so I cannot personally recommend them. I may be opening up new accounts in the near future and I am also working on getting more affiliate programs.If possible, go through the banner ads on my SportsBooks page to ensure proper tracking, but these text links should also work.
If I get enough sign ups, I hope to not “go tout” for the NBA season. Or we could make a deal, you sign up through a link of mine and be an active member at that book, if I go tout, you will have free access to the picks.
Now introducing, Bodog Sportsbook as an affiliate.
110% Poker sign up bonus
100% Poker reload bonus
10-15% Football reload bonus
I will be using Bodog a lot for football teasers and all sorts of props. A bodog account is a must for poker, football, and props.
5Dimes
Reduced Juice (-105 pricing)
5Dimes is a must for any sports better. I use it a ton for baseball and basketball. It does not offer that great props or football teasers.
BetJM
10% reload bonus
I use BetJM for football teasers and MLB. They will reimburse for all deposit fees. Something that a lot of books are not doing anymore…
SuperBook and Sportsbook.com
100% first deposit poker bonus with code FIRST100
Note: the sportsbook.com family is a very lowly regarded book. I have never had any problems with them and I think it is detrimental not to have an account there because of their slow moving lines. They have the easiest credit card deposits of all the sportsbooks and I would recommend you keep a lower balance there just in case something weird happens.
Thursday Plays
Aug 28th
Wednesday Results
Aug 27th
2-1-0 (+1.73 units)
Also picked up a WIN on the MIL/STL season series from this thread