I sure hope more judge a team the same way as Rick Morrissey breaks down the White Sox. I mean this article just made me laugh.
An excerpt (used without permission):
Do feelings count? Or hunches? Where is there room in computers for the inexplicable? Does the fact that it's the Cubs' 100th season since their last World Series title mean anything in the computations? Does it mean anything that the Cubs could be driven by the challenge of a century of dryness or, conversely, that they could cave in under the pressure of it and finish 10 games below .500?
I believe the Sox are embarrassed by what happened last season and, not to belabor the point, there is nothing in a computer's innards that can measure the effects of that. But it is one of the great motivators in the human makeup.
You have got to be kidding me. So you are arguing that team sucking in 2006=team doing well in 2007? Maybe this translates to other sports. Let's see... New York Knicks 2006 (sucked and consistently embarrassed) ---> fast forward to 2007 ---> Nope. They still suck.
Oh, right, it only works for baseball.
Baseball Prospectus was dead on last season, when it predicted the Sox, whom it saw as aging quickly, would win only 72 games. That's exactly what happened.
That the Sox dropped from 90 victories in 2006 to 72 games last season was one of the shocks of the baseball season. But not to Baseball Prospectus, and the people who run it deserve their props. They chalk up a lot of what happened on the South Side last season to the inevitability of time catching up with older athletes. I chalk it up to a number of players having down years at the same time.
I chalk it up to a number of players having down years at the same time.
Yes, that is much more likely.