Saturday, March 1, 2008

Shutting it Down

It has been a pleasure speaking to many of you through emails.
Starting tomorrow, I will no longer post plays from my system. I was hoping that I was just going through a long variance swing, but it appears that that may not be the case.
Prior to January 1st, this was my record:
109-82-3 (+72.38 units; ROI: 20.07%)
From January 1st on, this is my record (not including today):
129-132-2 (+6.40 units; ROI: 1.48%)
These combined leave me with a overall record for the NBA of:
238-214-5 (+78.78 units; ROI: 9.92%)

I will take a 10% ROI any day, but it appears that my system has lost the edge it had at the beginning of the season. I believe this is the case because the stats do not tell you as much as they did at the beginning of the season. For example, how do you quantify how good the Sacramento Kings are? They missed Martin for a long portion of the season, missed Artest for a moderate portion, missed Bibby for the first half, then had him for a few games and then traded him, and now their team is very different than opening day. That was probably a run on sentence.

If you are completely addicted to this stuff, don't worry. First you may want to seek help and if you find a good shrink let me know, but more importantly, I developed a new system based on what I believe to be sharp lines and money line inefficiencies. I will be posting these plays on most days. Let's see how this one goes.

For example the plays for today are:
NY +820 (2.5)
MEM +470 (2)
PHI +470 (2)
I have no idea if this is even going to work or be profitable, but it'll be a nice experiment I suppose.

Check back for baseball, I am very excited about this season.


stevek said...

Well sorry to see this go because I suck at NBA on my own.

You are right though, the system hasn't performed well the last few weeks. It seems that a lot of stats/sabermetrics systems performances drop off in the second half of the season. Like crockpot's MLB system last year. Great until the All Star break and then couldn't win a game. Seems that as the books catch up and the lines get sharper these systems have a problem adjusting. Something to think about is reviving it for the first half of next season though.

Baseball is almost here.

dudeimstoked said...

I will definitely be back for the first half of the season next year.

Andrew said...

Why do you see the Pads under their win total this year?

dudeimstoked said...

My projected total for them this year is 79 wins, pretty well under the posted 86 wins.

Andrew said...

OK, but WHY?

dudeimstoked said...

Any reason for you to believe that they are a >86 win team?
I'm just going with what the numbers say.
Last year they won 89 games. Are they better than last year? What about their division? Has it gotten stronger/weaker?
Baseball Prospectus projects:
Runs Scored: 692
Runs Allowed: 711

Andrew said...

Starting rotation is improved and has more depth: presumed healthy year from CY and better options for the four and five slots than last year.

No great couple of months from Milton Bradley but SD's LF ended up being about average overall. I think a combination of Hairston, Garut, Headley, whoever wins the job will put up average numbers.

No terrible first month for Kouzmanoff. He had a GREAT second half and I see a lot of offensive help from him this year.

AGon is still only 25 and improving. I don't think 30/100/.850 is his peak.

Second base was abysmal offensively for SD last year. Giles started out great but then did nothing for the rest of the year. Overall the line was .247/.320/.342. HORRIBLE. Iguchi has a career line of .276/.347/.421, which is a big improvement.

Even if Edmonds only plays 130 games he should match Cameron's 2007.

Who knows about Giles. He's old and coming off a serious surgery, but he only played 120 games last year (which is what I expect this year anyway). His greatest contribution to the team was his on-base skills, which shouldn't decline much, if at all.

And the team does boast some upside possibilities in Headley, Kouzmanoff, and Prior.

As for the rest of the division, it has certainly improved but it's not like the other teams are without question marks:

DBacks lost Valverde, have a very inconsistent offense (who is the impact bat?), and shouldn't have come close to their actual win total last year.

Took the Rockies a ridiculous second half-run and equally ridiculous tie breaker game vs. the Pads to even make the playoffs. Scary offense - but only in Coors. The home/away splits are enormous. Starting rotation has a solid 1-2 but the rest is very questionable.

LA added some desperately needed power with Jones but are still stuck with Pierre and Nomar, have a TERRIBLE defense, and question marks in Kuroda and Schmidt.

dudeimstoked said...

To be honest, you probably know more about this stuff than I do. I'm a pure stats guy so I really don't know players or anything like that. If you think they are better than an 86 win team, then I would not take my advice and maybe place a wager on the over. Only time will tell.

Andrew said...

Just a Padres homer :) I took all the baseball futures but that one, I was just wondering what your system said would lead to the Pads winning less than 86.