The Data Mining Project
Archive for March, 2008
Tuesday Plays
Mar 4th
NBA
Toronto (+9.5) +450 (2)
Seattle (+15.5) +1700 (1.5)
Memphis (+10.5) +630 (2)
I would like to post the spreads that each of these are based off of, but I really don’t want to have to do all that typing. Besides, you shouldn’t be putting any money on these anyways (I’m not).
NCAAB
Ohio -180 (4.5)
Kent St -255 (7)
Toledo -155 (3.5)
Virginia Tech -250 (3.5)
Buffalo -145 (2)
W. Michigan -150 (3)
N. Mexico -265 (5)
Mississippi -135 (1)
Valparaiso -310 (5)
Wisc Milwaukee -200 (5)
Tennessee Martin -210 (4)
Murray State -255 (3.5)
Ohio State -140 (3)
You may notice that every single one of the NCAAB plays is a favorite. I have no idea why that is the case as opposed to NBA where almost every play is a dog. We’ll see how this plays out.
Monday Results
Mar 3rd
8-1-0 (+6.26 units)
Barring a complete Gonzaga meltdown.
From now on I will not include any plays on huge favorites (ML -500). The risk/reward simply isn’t worth it.
Monday Plays
Mar 3rd
Just watch. Don’t touch these.
I will track NCAA and NBA separately. NCAA seems to like favorites a lot.
W. Virginia -260 (5)
Kansas -3750 (3)
Utah State -450 (3.5)
SF -175 (2.5)
SD -4000 (13 wow)
Gonzaga -1350 (10)
NC Greensboro -1300 (7)
Georgia Tech -210
Added Play
Weber State -6.0 -275 (4)
Sunday Plays
Mar 2nd
Atlanta +760 (1.5)
San Antonio -185 (1.5)
Sidelines my friends, sidelines.
Added NCAA Plays
St. Josephs -275 (4)
Oregon -600 (6)
Interesting how it finds more/larger plays on NCAA. For all favorites, I will not use risk 36.00 units to win 6 units, rather 6 unit to win 1 unit.
Record Update
Mar 1st
Saturday Results
2-2-0 (+1.76 units)
Week Results
11-16-0 (+2.37 units; ROI: 7.28%)
YTD Results
240-216-5 (+80.54 units; ROI: 10.06%)
New System Results
1-2-0 (+4.90 units)
Good start eh?
Shutting it Down
Mar 1st
It has been a pleasure speaking to many of you through emails.
Starting tomorrow, I will no longer post plays from my system. I was hoping that I was just going through a long variance swing, but it appears that that may not be the case.
Prior to January 1st, this was my record:
109-82-3 (+72.38 units; ROI: 20.07%)
From January 1st on, this is my record (not including today):
129-132-2 (+6.40 units; ROI: 1.48%)
These combined leave me with a overall record for the NBA of:
238-214-5 (+78.78 units; ROI: 9.92%)
I will take a 10% ROI any day, but it appears that my system has lost the edge it had at the beginning of the season. I believe this is the case because the stats do not tell you as much as they did at the beginning of the season. For example, how do you quantify how good the Sacramento Kings are? They missed Martin for a long portion of the season, missed Artest for a moderate portion, missed Bibby for the first half, then had him for a few games and then traded him, and now their team is very different than opening day. That was probably a run on sentence.
If you are completely addicted to this stuff, don’t worry. First you may want to seek help and if you find a good shrink let me know, but more importantly, I developed a new system based on what I believe to be sharp lines and money line inefficiencies. I will be posting these plays on most days. Let’s see how this one goes.
For example the plays for today are:
NY +820 (2.5)
MEM +470 (2)
PHI +470 (2)
I have no idea if this is even going to work or be profitable, but it’ll be a nice experiment I suppose.
Check back for baseball, I am very excited about this season.
Futures and Fools on Matchbook
Mar 1st
Here are some futures plays I made on Matchbook. I do not understand who would fill the other side of these baseball plays. If you are the moron who takes Baltimore -30000 to not win the WS, my advice to you is to walk over to your local bank, open up a 6 month CD and get your guaranteed 4% ROI because that is better than what you are getting on these plays.
Since I’m a numbers guy, here is the rundown: risk 3000 to win 10 in 8 months from now. Why tie up funds so long to win so little? What about that <1% chance that Florida actually makes the playoffs?
World Series 2008 Baltimore (to win) +30000
World Series 2008 Florida (to win) +30000
NBA Championship 2008 Winner Houston (to win) +4500
NBA Championship 2008 Winner Toronto (to win) +7500
On a different note, I really like the Houston and Toronto futures plays. I recommend taking a look at these. In the West, the only true favorite is the Lakers and maybe the Spurs, but they are starting to look old. Houston is legit even without Ming.
The East is so bad. So bad. Toronto will probably take the (edit) 4th spot in the East and face Detroit in the Conference semi’s or whatever they’re called. Will they get to the finals? Probably not, but who knows.
If either of these teams makes a run in the playoffs, hedging them will be very profitable.
Now let’s move on to the most overrated and underrated teams:
Why isn’t New Orleans getting any respect? 18-1 dogs across the board?
The Phoenix Suns. Now I’m a Suns fan. This team is headed for that #9 spot in the West (maybe that was a little harsh, but time will tell). Probably the most overrated team in the NBA.
The Utah Jazz. Why are they so freaking terrible on the road? No thoughts on them, but I don’t get the home/road record discrepancy.
The Minnesota Timberwolves. Crazy underrated because they play in the West. If this was an Eastern Conference team, they’d be a .500 team. Yeah, I said it. Prove me wrong.
