Monday, March 3, 2008

Monday Plays

Just watch. Don't touch these.

I will track NCAA and NBA separately. NCAA seems to like favorites a lot.
W. Virginia -260 (5)
Kansas -3750 (3)
Utah State -450 (3.5)
SF -175 (2.5)
SD -4000 (13 wow)
Gonzaga -1350 (10)
NC Greensboro -1300 (7)
Georgia Tech -210

Added Play
Weber State -6.0 -275 (4)


joebob said...

13 units to win .3 units is only saying the true line is -4600 at full kelly, which isn't *that* far off- what fraction are you using?

dudeimstoked said...

from the spread i generated a -8700 line.
I'm using 1/2 kelly.
mostly i just dont like >5 unit plays

dudeimstoked said...

also i just realized i backed off the kelly on this play because it was insane. i think i may have used 1/4 kelly on this play. i dont remember right now.

The Vegan said...

When you post these ML plays don't you need to post the current lines you are basing these bets on?
Obviously if a line drops so will the ML and someone may think they found value where there really isn't any.

dudeimstoked said...

I'm not 100% sure I understand your question, but the lines I posted were the lines that 5dimes was offering at the time.

Is that right?

The Vegan said...

No, what I am saying is I assume your system is based on the value of the money line compared to point spread. Meaning a team is favored by 5.5 and you think, for instance, that the line of -200 that is available to you is good value so you release that. But if the line drops to 4 then what was a good value on the money is no longer a good value at that price of -200 because the game line dropped which changes everything.

The Vegan said...

So I was saying that you need to post GT-210, for instance at the current line of -5.5. This way if someone sees your post after the point spread has changed they will know what spreads your money line plays were based on.

dudeimstoked said...

oh i gotcha. i will do that from now on.

i hope no one is putting a bet on any of these games, however.