Tuesday, January 1, 2008

General Handicapping Advice and NCAAF Play

What should I do with these picks? What if there is a late-breaking injury or if I think you're dead wrong?
Please, please, please do not follow these picks blindly. You are the sole person responsible for deciding which picks to put in play. I make most of the plays early on in the day so you all will have a chance to see them, but the drawback is that I may miss injuries that get reported later or something of the sort. If you think a play is dumb or there is an injury that I may not have accounted for, do not bet that pick.

How should I determine my bankroll? What about varying it? What percentage of my bankroll should I use per unit?
A general rule for determining total bankroll size is however much money you don't mind losing. If you would be in financial trouble or in big time trouble with the wife, lower your bankroll size.
For my picks, I am going to recommend .5% of your bankroll per unit because most of my plays are 2-3 unit plays, but in the end, this is really up to you. The higher % of your bankroll each unit size is, the higher the risk of ruin.
Ideally your bankroll changes daily. This is probably not realistic especially if you have money at multiple books. A general rule of thumb is for every 10% increase or decrease in total bankroll size, you should adjust your unit sizes. So if you have been following my picks through the entire season, you would have increased your bankroll/unit size multiple times.

How many sportsbooks should I have money with and how important is lineshopping?
As many high rated sportsbooks as possible would be advisable. If you are outside the US, Pinnacle is a must. The others for Basketball I would recommend are Matchbook and 5Dimes. BetJM doesn't really offer anything noteworthy for basketball, but they are great for baseball.
The reason you want to have multiple sportsbooks open to your use is lineshopping. Often times, good lineshopping can turn a losing bettor into a winning one. It is probably one of the most underrated things you can do to increase your bankroll.

What should I do if I cannot get the same lines that you do? Ex/ Play of UTA +7, but I can only get +6.5.
I use the Kelly Criterion to determine all bet sizes so this is a tough one. For now, let's go with for every 1 point shift in the spread, lower your unit size by .5 units. This may be too conservative, but that's why you shouldn't follow blindly :-).

What ROI should I expect with your picks?
5%. Period. The current 20% ROI is unsustainable and I am probably leaving +EV bets on the table, but I'm working on that.

You are awesome, what can I do to help?

You can refer people to this site, increase your weekly subscription "donations", sign up through one of the banners under Books.

Please feel free to email me with any further questions. I hope this is helpful to all of you.

Play for Tuesday
This will not count for anything. I know almost nothing about college football, but I'm a big Colt Brennan fan because he is an absolute beast.

Hawaii +9½ -105 for Game (1.5)


Jonathan said...

Ditto, Colt Brennan is a beast and will throw for eight touchdowns that game.

dudeimstoked said...

Or even 1 TD would be nice