Monday, December 31, 2007

Happy New Year

To keeping the heater on

Monday Plays

Indiana -1.0 +110 (1.5)
I was dumb and made this before checking Jamaal Tinsley's status. If he is not playing, do not bet this line. If he is playing, then it is a 1.5 unit play. I am going to count it in my record either way.

Detroit -11.5 -106 (4)
Portland Trailblazers +7½ -105 for Game (2)

Sunday, December 30, 2007

Sunday Results

1-1-0 (+0.96 units)

Heater is still on.

Last day of free picks tomorrow. Hopefully it will be a good day.

Sunday Plays

Philadelphia 76ers +6 -108 for Game (3)
Boston 2.0 +105 (4)

Saturday, December 29, 2007

Subscription Reminder

Greetings Minions,
I believe I have sent out passwords to everyone that has paid. If you have not received a password please send me an email.

To those of you who (or is it whom?) have not subscribed please do so soon to ensure that the transaction will go as planned so you do not miss any picks.

If you choose not to subscribe, best of luck to you. Feel free to check back on how I am doing. Everything will be made public after the games start so you can check up on me to see when I hit a nice downswing.

Record Update

Saturday Results
3-2-2 (+2.88 units)
Another great day. If only I took Boston at -5.5 at -105 instead of going for -6 at +110.

Week Results
16-5-2 (+25.86 units; ROI: 55.20%)

December Results
82-51-3 (+76.55 units; ROI: 29.65%)

YTD Results
107-79-3 (+71.02 units; ROI: 20.56%)

FYI this ROI is insane. Anyone have a better public record than me?

Saturday Plays

Detroit Pistons -4½ -105 for Game (1.5)
New Orleans Hornets -4 -105 for Game (2)
Atlanta 8.5 -108 (1.5)
Boston at Utah Total Under 192.5 (BOS/UTA) +105

Added Play
Boston -6.0 +110 (2)

I will be getting to all of your emails shortly. I have been really busy today.

Added Play
New Jersey 3.0 -104 (2)
And another Boston -6.0 +111 (.5)
Sorry for the late plays, but you get what you pay for :-)

Friday, December 28, 2007

Friday Results and New Subscription Payment Option

5-1-0 (+9.89 units)

I have added Google Checkout as an additional way to pay for a subscription. If you pay via Google Checkout, I will email you the password after I receive payment from you. I hope this helps for those of you that are having problems with Paypal.

Friday Plays

5Dimes reduced juice lines has a line that is way off compared to every other book. This creates some interesting betting opportunities.

Philadelphia 76ers +7½ -105 for Game (3)

AND I am going to try and middle this play with matchbook
Philadelphia 76ers +7½ -105 for Game (2)
Sacramento -3.5 -113 (2)

Regular Plays
Denver 4.0 +110 (1.5)
Detroit -9.0 -104 (2)
Washington Wizards +4 +100 for Game (3.5)

Note: if you can only get PHI +4, it is only a 1.5 unit play.

Thursday, December 27, 2007

Thursday Results

0-2-0 (-5.66 units)

FREAKING BOSTON gave up 6 uncontested points in the last 2 minutes to allow Seattle to cover. Including a wide open dunk with 3 seconds left. Wonderful.

Thursday Plays

Dallas -6.5 -108 (1.5)
Boston -9.5 -101 (4)

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Wednesday Results

4-0-0 (+10.30 units)

One of the best days ever for me. Round robin 3,4 free play parlay hit and had a nice arb on Det -6.0 +115.

The current +63.91 units for this season is a new all-time high. Downswing who?

Wednesday Plays

Washington 4.5 +100 (3.5)
Detroit -6.0 +110 (3)
Boston Celtics -7 -108 for Game (2)
Philadelphia 76ers -2½ -105 for Game (1.5)

Tuesday, December 25, 2007

Shopping Cart

There was a shopping cart error that did not allow you to change the unit size when trying to purchase a subscription.
I believe this is now fixed. If you have any problems please let me know.

Wednesday Results

1-0-0 (+1.65 units)

Monday, December 24, 2007

Christmas Plays

Los Angeles (L) 2.5 +110 (1.5)

I can't believe someone filled that at matchbook. Sucker. Not that it matters if I lose this play.

Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas everyone!

Snoopy Christmas

Sunday, December 23, 2007

The Future of Pure Sabermetrics

I have done some thinking and this is how everything will work after December 31.

Access to picks after December 31, 2007 will require a donation. The picks will be password protected until after all of the games start.

I am recommending a donation of 1 unit per week. Payments are accepted for 1 week blocks (Sunday - Saturday).

I believe this is more than reasonable because I have been looking around and Covers.com charges $125/week.

Minimum donation per week: $10
Maximum donation per week: $125 (I'm a nice guy)

Previous thoughts and details regarding this decision can be found here.

Since January 1, 2008 starts on a Tuesday, I will be giving a free half-week for those who sign up prior to then. That means you will get January 1-12 at the price of 1 week!

As an added bonus, I will do everything in my power to get plays posted by 11am PST (hopefully around 9am PST) depending on the day, but I also plan on posting lines that look favorable before 1am PST the night before for those of you who will not be able to check during the day.

Also, on any given week that you subscribe, if I do not finish with a +ROI, the next week is free. It doesn't get much better than that.

To purchase a subscription please visit the Subscribe to Picks page.

Sunday Results

3-0-0 (+6.80 units)

Much better.

Sunday Plays

Golden State 2.5 +108 (2.5)
Detroit -7.5 +100 (2)
Boston -9.5 +105 (2)

Stupid Marcus Camby can't decide if he is going to play or not and I won't be around for tip-off so there won't be a play on ether side, even though I'd like there to be.

Saturday, December 22, 2007

Record Update

This downswing has welcomed me with a beating. Remember that downswings are normal and expected. If you can't handle a 13 unit loss on any given day, I recommend lowering your unit size.

Saturday Results
1-8-0 (-12.69 units)
Worst day in recent memory. Probably 2-4 of these units could have been adverted with correct player injury news, but covers.com unfortunately rocked me. Also, betting early allowed me to get better lines, but not reliable player status.

Week Results
18-19-0 (-0.60 units; ROI: -0.88%)

Dec Results
66-46-1 (+50.69 units; ROI: 23.98%)

YTD Results
91-74-1 (+45.16 units; ROI: 15.12%)

Despite today's loss of 13 units and the down day on Thursday, I only finished down .60 units. That's really not that bad, considering the previous weeks were all +10 units each.
Also for December I'm up 51 units. I will take that any day of the week. I'll also take the 15% ROI YTD.

Now, I am tired of losing and it is time to turn it around.

Friday, December 21, 2007

Saturday Plays

Charlotte 6.5 +103 (2.5)
Golden State -3.0 +107 (2.5)
Minnesota 11.0 -108 (2)
Toronto 9.5 +106 (2.5)
Utah 1.0 +100 (2.5)
Utah +102 (.5)
Washington 6.0 -100 (1.5)
Washington 6.0 -104 (1.5)

A lot of dogs. Good stuff.

I only got some of my bets down at the better prices, so I made 2 on the same team (Utah and Washington), if that makes any sense.

Added Play:
Chicago 1.5 -102 (2)

Friday Results and Picks for Saturday

4-3-0 (+4.00 units)
Much better.
The Pacers suck. So do the Knicks.

I am busy for most of Saturday, so I may not get plays up. I may post a few early in the morning or tonight and then add to them before tip off if I am back in time.

Friday Plays

Time to turn it around.

Friday NBA
Toronto Raptors -4½ -101 for Game
Denver Nuggets +4½ -103 for Game (2)
Detroit Pistons -10½ -105 for Game (2)
Indiana Pacers -5½ +100 for Game
New York Knicks +6 -107 for Game (2.5)
Boston -10.0 +104 (2.5)
Utah 4.0 +104 (2)

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Thursday Results

1-2-0 (-2.23 units)

I told you a downturn was coming, figures it would be around now.
Can I not lose a play in the 4th quarter? The end of the 3rd quarter and 4th quarter of the Laker game was so incredibly ugly I can't describe it (think 16-0 Cleveland run).
However, the Houston/Denver game was really good.

I have made some modifications to my system, including increasing the kelly sizes of the bets, which should increase the number of plays, but reduce the ROI. Wait! Isn't reducing the ROI a bad thing? Not if you can make more +EV plays that will increase your bankroll. There are +EV plays I am missing out on because of the smaller kelly size.

I highly recommend that you all check out the post notification feature I installed on this site. It will send you an email the same minute I post, notifying you of new plays.

Wednesday Results and Thursday Plays

2-3-0 (-3.02 units)
Much more realistic. Except how the hell did Toronto only score 13 points in the 4th quarter? That game was locked up. But then again, how did Atlanta come back in OT?

Thursday NBA
Los Angeles Lakers -2 -106 for Game (1.5)
Miami Heat -2 -107 for Game (2)
Houston 8.0 -102 (1.5)

Error Using Internet Explorer

For some reason, the comment page and sometimes the homepage do not load correctly if you are using IE. I'll look into this and hopefully find a solution.

Everything loads fine using firefox, which I would recommend over IE any day.

Update: I have fixed this problem, I think...

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Future Picks

This is what I have decided to do about posting picks. I am thinking of December 31st as the last day I will post picks free to everyone.

I will continue to post picks, but they will be password protected until the games start. This will allow me to keep a public record and also gives me some incentive to continue posting. To obtain the password for the plays, I will take a payment/donation of whatever you feel is fair for the picks. I am going to recommend 1 unit per week because I do not want to cut into your winnings. The password will change weekly.

If it turns out that I am not making enough using this method, I will create a minimum payment size per week. Payment will be accepted via Paypal so you can pay by credit card or bank account. I do not have a PokerStars account, but if there is enough interest in doing a stars transfer for payment, I will make one.

I will accept payment for one or two week blocks.
My incentive to keep doing well is that if I have a down week, (-.0001 units), I will provide the next week free for the subscribers.

Do not expect the hot run to continue. The general rule is a professional handicapper has about a 5% ROI longterm, so I would expect something around there. If this is going to disappoint you, I'm sorry to break the news to you that there is no endless fountain of money and you probably shouldn't subscribe.

Please vote to let me know what methods of payment would be acceptable.

[poll=1]

Post Subscription

I have added a new feature onto this site. If you subscribe, the website will automatically send you an email notification a minute after I make a post.

I have no idea if it works or anything like that, but it sounds like a cool feature if you are interested.

Update: So as of now it is not working. I'll work on it today and see what I can do.

Update: Yea screw that. Too much work. Sorry, but you'll just have to keep checking every hour for picks.

Update: I have tried about 30 email plugins and it looks like I found one that works. Post subscription may be possible!

Update: It looks like it is fully functional now, minus the really bad spelling found all over the place that I will fix soon.
And I already lost 2 plays tonight :-(.

Wednesday Plays

Sacramento Kings +6½ -109 for Game (2)
Atlanta Hawks -1½ -106 for Game (2)
Washington -5.0 +108 (2.5)
Toronto 3.0 -101 (2.5)
Utah -5.0 +104 (2)

Something new: I bet against Portland.
I got a freeplay bonus at 5dimes and used some of it on a 2,3,4,5 round robin on these plays. Hopefully the hot streak will continue. This would be a sad time for it to stop.

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Tuesday Results

3-1-0 (+3.86 units)

I may be taking totals out of my plays. It really makes no sense to me how I am killing the spreads, but not totals. I use the same numbers to determine which are plays, but I feel that the total bets may be -EV.

For those of you counting, yes that is 20-0 against the spread since December 12.

Site Upgrade

Over the next week I am going to try and apply some updates, so you may see some weird layouts and errors on the page. Let me know if you notice any problems.

I just installed a plugin that allows for page caching server side, resulting in faster load times. Hopefully it will help.

Tuesday Plays

Bulls - Total Points Under 102.5 (-115)
Nets - Total Points Under 96.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Lakers +2 -104 for Game (2.5)
Sacramento 5.0 +101 (1.5)

Monday, December 17, 2007

Monday Results

5-2-0 (+5.48 units)

I am KILLING the spreads. KILLING. There is no way this is sustainable.
Look at this stat:
Spreads from 12/12-12/17
18-0-0 (+37.09 units; ROI: 99.36%)
That is not possible. Well, it shouldn't be.

Not that it matters, but there is one moneyline win that isn't counted in the spread calculations.

Oh, and I was super super lucky today with Mil/Cle. Needed 1 OT for the Mil over to be good and 2OT for the game total to be over.

Word of advice: If you are following these picks, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE use good bankroll management. Do not wager over your unit size because you want to jump on this hot streak. There is no easier way to go bankrupt than using too high unit sizes when the downswing hits.

Monday Plays

New Orleans Hornets team total under 93 -110 for Game
Milwaukee Bucks team total over 92½ -115 for Game
Utah Jazz team total under 98 -110 for Game
Golden State -4.0 +100
Over 193.5 (MIL/CLE) -108
Portland 1.0 +103 (3.5)
Over 203.0 (PHX/SA) -102

I accidentally bet the Mil/Cavs game over twice with the Bucks team total and overall game total, but I still think they're both good bets.
Possible play in the Ind/NYK game depending on J. O'neal's status.

Sunday, December 16, 2007

Sunday Results

2-0-0 (+4.00 units)

Ok, so now it's getting ridiculous. To put this in perspective, I have not had a down day since 12/7/07 and the next one before that was 12/2/07. From 11/28-12/16 my record is: 60-30-1 (+67.79 units; ROI: 40.03%).

I am moving up to a full unit size on Monday. Which probably means that it's downswing time.

I am also not sure how long I will continue to post picks. I may take this system completely private or just for a select few in the future, but I haven't made any decisions yet.

Sunday Plays

Portland 8.5 -105 (2)
Los Angeles (L) -7.0 -106 (2)

Here's a weird fact: The Lakers are better without Kobe Bryant on the floor.
Even though his status is questionable, this is a play whether he plays or not.

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Record Update

Saturday Results
7-1-0 (+10.96 units)

Week Results
28-11-0 (+38.54 units; ROI: 53.82%)
I am a beast. 53% ROI over a week? Insane.

YTD Results
73-55-1 (+45.76 units; ROI: 19.86%)

Downturn must be coming soon...

Friday Results and Saturday Plays

4-1-0 (+7.22 units)
Still hot, like uhhh... a fire?

Saturday NBA
Denver Nuggets team total over 97½ -110 for Game
Phoenix Suns team total under 108½ -115 for Game
New Jersey Nets team total under 95 -110 for Game
New Orleans Hornets +6½ +100 for Game (2)
Dallas 3.5 +100 (2)
Indiana 6.0 +103 (2)
New York 3.5 +100 (2)
Philadelphia 8.0 -103 (2)

Friday, December 14, 2007

Thursday Results and Friday Plays

2-0-0 (+3.55 units)

Friday NBA
Boston Celtics -13 -109 for Game (2)
Toronto Raptors +3 -105 for Game (2)
Los Angeles (L) 6.0 +112 (1.5)
Under 190.5 (SAC/PHI) -106
Portland 6.0 +104 (2.5)

I don't really like the Boston play because you have to give up so many points, but that's what the numbers say...

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Thursday Plays

Washington Wizards team total over 98 -115 for Game
Washington Wizards +5.5 +102 (2.5)

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Wednesday Results

6-4-0 (+5.31 units)

Went 5-0 on spreads and 1-4 on totals. I may be adjusting my totals unit sizes soon because I feel like I have less of an edge there.

Wednesday Plays

A ton of plays today...

Portland Trailblazers +5 +100 for Game (2)
Chicago Bulls/Indiana Pacers under 198½ -105 for Game (2)
Dallas Mavericks/Toronto Raptors over 196 -103 for Game
Minnesota Timberwolves/Philadelphia 76ers under 187 -106 for Game
Los Angeles Clippers +6½ -106 for Game
Indiana -104 (1.5)
Toronto 5.5 -107 (3)
Under 199.0 (SEA/NY) -105 (2)
Utah 7.0 +107 (1.5)

Huge play if Peja is not playing. Waiting for definite status.

Added Play
Sacramento Kings/Boston Celtics under 193 -104 for Game (2.5)
-This line has moved a ton (opened somewhere around 189) and I'm not sure why.

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Tuesday Results

3-3-0 (+0.89 units)

Tuesday Plays

Portland Trailblazers +13½ +100 for Game (2)
Indiana 4.5 -111
Over 199.5 (IND/CLE) +100 (1.5)
Washington -8.0 -104
Seattle 8.0 +105
Under 191.0 (SEA/CHI) +107 (1.5)

There will be a play on SA if Duncan is playing. As of now I don't see anything conclusive on his status.

Monday, December 10, 2007

Monday Results

3-2-0 (+1.11 units)

I hope none of you caught my late plays because those are the only ones that lost =/
Pretty much, you would have had a +5.02 unit day.

Need a Christmas gift or just want to learn more about handicapping? Check out these books:
Betting Baseball
Basketball on Paper

My systems are based off of these books. If you have any questions feel free to email or comment.

Monday Plays

Milwaukee Bucks/Sacramento Kings under 198½ -108 for Game (2)
Houston Rockets team total under 94 -105 for Game
Philadelphia 6.0 +101 (2)

I have officially upped my unit size to 1/2 of what I'd like. Hopefully this week will go well and I'll increase it to the full size. I'm still not 100% confident in my system, but we'll see how this goes.

Late added play
Houston Rockets/Philadelphia 76ers under 181½ -110 for Game (2)

Added play
Under 217.5 (MIA/PHX) -114 (1.5)

Sunday, December 9, 2007

Record Update

Sunday Results
3-0-0 (+9.50 units)

Week Results
19-10-1 (+24.93 units; ROI: 38.81%)

YTD Results
48-44-1 (+16.72 units; ROI: 9.92%)

Saturday Results and Sunday Plays

6-3-0 (+4.28 units)

Sunday NBA
Washington Wizards -2½ -108 for Game (2)
Toronto 4.0 -102 (3)
Under 195.5 (SEA/NO) +100 (4.5)

No Peja = huge play
I'm also assuming Bosh is playing about 25-30 min.

Saturday, December 8, 2007

Friday Results and Saturday Plays

2-4-0 (-3.70 units)

Saturday NBA
Phoenix Suns/Minnesota Timberwolves under 218 -105 for Game
Denver Nuggets team total under 113½ -105 for Game (1.5)
Boston Celtics -5½ -105 for Game
Cleveland Cavaliers team total under 87 -110 for Game (2)
Charlotte Bobcats -8 -105 for Game (2.5)
Philadelphia 4.5 +112 (2)
Under 189.0 (PHI/NY) +101 (2)
Utah 6.0 -104 (2)
Sacramento 13.5 +114 (3)

Friday, December 7, 2007

Friday Plays

Under 186.5 (HOU/NJ) -103 (2)
Sacramento -5.0 -107 (2)
Under 194.0 (LAC/SAC) -106 (2)
Under 208.5 (MIA/GS) -103 (2)
Under 184.0 (NY/PHI) +102 (1.5)
Washington 6.5 +103 (2)

Thanks for the reminder Gerald and sorry for not getting back to the other comments. No one has ever posted comments before so I didn't even see them until this morning. If there are any major injuries to a team please post them and remind me because it typically changes the numbers a lot.

Added 1/2 unit to both Sac -5 and Sac/LA total

Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Wednesday Results

3-1-0 (+7.44 units)

On fire? Yeah.

As of now, no plays for Thursday.

Tuesday Results and Wednesday Plays

3-1-0 (+4.94 units)

Wednesday NBA
Washington Wizards -11½ -110 for Game (3.5)
Los Angeles Lakers +9 -108 for Game (3)
Toronto Raptors +7 -106 for Game
Cleveland Cavaliers team total under 88 -110 for Game (2)

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Update to System

I have made a lot of changes to my system, including adjusting defensive and offensive power ratings for strength of schedule and the ability to adjust for key injuries on a team (ex/ Lebron James). I hope that this allow me to make more +EV bets in basketball.
I am going to see how this system goes for the next week and if everything turns out well, increase my personal unit size to the regular amount.

Monday Results and Tuesday Plays

2-1-1 (+2.47 units)

Indiana Pacers +6 -102 for Game
Utah -3.0 -104 (1.5)

There may be a huge play on NJ depending on Lebron James' status.

New Jersey Nets/Cleveland Cavaliers under 181½ -110 for Game (1.5)
New Jersey Nets -2 -120 for Game (4)

Sorry about the extremely late play on NJ. I was busy right up until tipoff.

Monday, December 3, 2007

Sunday Results and Monday Plays

1-2-0 (-1.09 units)

Monday NBA
Miami Heat/Utah Jazz under 195 -102 for Game (1.5)
Utah Jazz -9 -104 for Game (1.5)
Toronto Raptors -4 -105 for Game (2.5)
Dallas -3.0 -103 (1.5)

Sunday, December 2, 2007

Saturday Results and Sunday Plays

3-4-0 (-1.59 units)

Sunday NBA
Miami Heat/Denver Nuggets under 203 -105 for Game (1.5)
Cleveland Cavaliers/Boston Celtics over 186½ -105 for Game
Detroit -8.0 +102 (1.5)

Saturday, December 1, 2007

Saturday Plays

Charlotte Bobcats/Chicago Bulls under 181 -101 for Game (1.5)
Philadelphia 76ers/New Jersey Nets under 185 -105 for Game (1.5)
Charlotte Bobcats +6½ +100 for Game (2.5)
Philadelphia 76ers +8 -107 for Game (2.5)
Under 213.0 (MIN/MEM) -107 (1.5)
New Orleans 3.0 +100 (1.5)
Under 192.0 (HOU/SAC) +114 (1.5)